At this stage of campaign 2024, Senate and governor’s contests are coming into clearer focus, although many primary contests are yet to come (see attachment). There are already some distinctive features of these contests. As Roll Call’s Nate Gonzales wrote last week, “candidates in top-tier Senate races [are] now closer to spending what presidential candidates used to spend in the early 2000s.” In the most competitive races 20 years ago, Gonzales reports, there were only three races where the top two candidates spent $20 million. Today, he says, a single credible nominee could spend that much.
Looking ahead to the April and May Senate and governor primaries, two-term Democratic Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut looks safe to hold his seat in a Biden +20 state. Republican Dave McCormick, whom Donald Trump endorsed last weekend, is poised to face Pennsylvania’s popular Democratic Senator Bob Casey in one of the most closely divided states in the nation (Biden +1). Given McCormick’s deep pockets, this could be one of the country’s most expensive contests.
In Maryland, where Democratic Senator Ben Cardin is retiring, county executive Angela Alsobrooks and Rep. David Trone are in a spirited contest for the Democratic nod in the state’s May 14 primary. Trone has already spent more than $40 million of his own money, while raising just $200,000 from other donors. The winner will likely face popular former Republican governor Larry Hogan. The general election is an uphill climb for Hogan in a solidly Democratic state.
If he defeats Rep. Alex Mooney in the primary, Republican Governor Jim Justice is a strong general election favorite in West Virginia, a state Donald Trump won by 40 points. In two other bright red states, Republicans Kevin Cramer of North Dakota and Deb Fisher of Nebraska look like safe reelection prospects. Indiana will have a Senate and gubernatorial primary on May 14. In the Senate primary, Rep. Jim Banks has a clear path to the GOP nomination. In the governor’s race, sitting US Senator Mike Braun is the front-runner in a six-candidate GOP field. Nikki Haley qualified for the presidential primary ballot, and it will be interesting to see how many of her supporters turn out in a state that has been reliably Republican.
As the primaries unfold, our baseline from earlier this spring holds: The House remains a tossup, while Republicans have a clear edge in the Senate.
Abortion post Dobbs still appears to be an albatross for the GOP. It is hard to say how many citizen-initiated initiatives will qualify for general election ballots in November. Gathering and certifying signatures is an expensive and time-consuming project. But it appears initiatives will be on the ballot in several key states, including Nevada, Arizona, and Florida. In Florida, the measure needs 60 percent to pass.
In a final note, we would like to congratulate Amy Walter, David Wasserman, Jessica Taylor, and Charlie Cook on the 40th anniversary of the Cook Political Report. On their website you can look at their final ratings for every on-cycle race and some special Senate and governor elections over four decades. That’s more than 10,000 forecasts!
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