On May 5, voters across the United Kingdom headed to the
polls for local elections, and Northern Ireland residents cast ballots for the
devolved Assembly at Stormont. The results of these elections provide a unique
look at Britain’s ongoing political churn.

Typically, Britain’s local elections offer frustrated voters a safe protest vote against the incumbent national government in Westminster. Last year’s elections defied the trend, boosting Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party nationwide. This year, however, Johnson’s government has been bogged down over the last six months in scandal, despite an 80-seat majority. Partygate has left public support plummeting after the Prime Minister, his Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak, and a number of leading aides were issued police fines for their COVID-lockdown violations. Meanwhile, Johnson continues to face accusations of lying to Parliament.

Johnson’s government is also reeling from the loss of December’s once-safe North Shropshire by-election, its botched handling of lobbying accusations against the sitting Conservative member, Owen Paterson, and a further slew of resignations, accusations, and ethical scandals that harkens back to the chaotic Tory sleaze affair of the 1990s that crippled then-PM John Major’s government.

Despite Downing Street’s praised handling of the war in Ukraine, many Tory voters have been disillusioned by skyrocketing cost of living increases, ongoing cross-Channel illegal immigration, and controversial economic measures—compounding the government’s serious political headwinds. Sunak’s planned tax hike, amidst the backdrop of inflation and his own personal scandals, have poured gasoline on claims that the Tory party is out of touch. The rival Labour party now leads on critical policies like healthcare and the economy, long a staple Tory issue.

These elections could therefore prove a bell-weather for the national parties and Johnson’s political future. So how did voters react to this maelstrom of controversy? Several pre-election predictions pointed to massive Tory losses nationwide, ranging from 550–800 seats. In the end, the Conservatives lost 401 seats, while Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and Greens gained 240, 188, and 82 seats, respectively.

Labour made significant gains in London, including in Wandsworth (Tory-held for 44 years and dubbed Margaret Thatcher’s ‘favorite council’) and Barnet. The heart of the capital, Westminster, went Labour for the first time in history. Overall, 12 Tory-held councils across England and Wales fell to rival parties. Despite its impressive showing in London, Labour’s mixed results across the rest of the country portend some structural challenges ahead of a general election victory, particularly if it is unable to grow beyond its cosmopolitan strongholds or reclaim significant territory across the Midlands and North.

Furthermore, Labour’s own Covid lockdown-breaking scandal, nicknamed Beergate, has implicated Keir Starmer and his deputy, Angela Rayner. The parallels to Partygate may also weaken the party’s charges against the Conservatives and lessen the credibility of Starmer’s attacks on integrity. Nevertheless, Labour gains, turmoil within the Conservatives, and wins in upcoming ‘Red Wall’ parliamentary elections like Wakefield could give a boost to the opposition.

Beyond the major defeats in London, Johnson’s party faced serious losses in traditionally Conservative southern heartlands. The center-left Liberal Democrats won scores of seats in the ‘Blue Wall,’ boosted by their strength on local issues and Johnson’s collapsing popularity—and buoyed by recent parliamentary by-election victories in traditionally Tory seats like Amersham and Shropshire. The Lib Dems still face significant structural hurdles on the national level, but their impressive results in the south could herald increasing challenges for Conservative marginal seats at the next general election.

In Scotland, Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and Scottish Nationalist Party made gains at the Tories’ expense. However, Northern Ireland’s Assembly results will prove the most complicated aspect of Thursday’s elections. Despite majority support for unionism, a three-way split between leading pro-UK parties led Sinn Féin, the leftist republican party, to victory. Sinn Féin’s win is a historic first; combined with the party’s strength in the Republic of Ireland, calls will no doubt increase for a border poll to unite Ireland.

Northern Ireland’s political system is quite complicated, and under power-sharing requirements in the Good Friday Agreement, unionist parties could still frustrate government to the point of collapse. The Northern Ireland Protocol of the Brexit agreement also remains a major complication here, further fragmenting the unionist parties and raising major constitutional questions. While a border poll is still far off, the constitutional ramifications of a Sinn Féin-controlled Belfast are monumental, both for Northern Ireland and the United Kingdom as a whole.

Ultimately, Thursday’s elections will have a more significant impact than usual on Britain. Tough losses for the Conservatives may indicate that Boris Johnson’s lucky streak is over; after twelve years in office, the party might need to do some soul searching. With a premiership and the country’s constitutional union in play, these results matter.

Chris Gavin is a government relations manager at AEI.

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