What Worked In The Past Won’t Work Now

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “‘I’ve felt a massive drop,’ says Sabrina Must, who in the height of the pandemic could command more than $1,000 per night on a holiday weekend in Encinitas, California but now has her rates starting around $275 on Airbnb. ‘I am so beyond stressed by it.’”

“Sellers are increasingly taking their homes off the market, likely unsatisfied that they’re not getting the prices they want amid a real-estate slowdown. Almost 2% of homes were delisted on average in South Florida each week in the three-month period ending Nov. 27, according to RedFin. ‘I think that there is going to be a lot of homes that hit the market in January or the first few weeks of February once we get through Christmas, and New Year’s,’ said Alex Platt with the Platt Group at Compass in Boca Raton.”

“New numbers show that home prices may finally be leveling off across Western Washington. Kelly Nutt, a Realtor with John L. Scott Bothell told KIRO 7 it was unrealistic for anyone to think that home prices would keep spiking. In fact, he said the rate of appreciation these past few years was absolutely unprecedented. ‘I wasn’t getting an income raise of 40% every year. People can’t afford it. Affordability is a huge factor in all of this,’ he said.”

“Nashville home buyers and sellers have at least one thing in common – they are both dealing with the emotions of facing a volatile market. Brad Copeland, President of Greater Nashville REALTORS said sellers are also dealing with the emotional toll of a slowing market because houses are not selling as fast as they were earlier this year. ‘We have sellers who were pricing – I’ll call it ‘speculatively.’ For instance, a seller could put a house on the market for $400k, but if they had waited two weeks then it would sell for $440k because the demand was so high, Copeland said. ‘That’s an unsustainable market. That’s really where we’ve been over this last year,’ he said. ‘Sellers got used to that market… and were anticipating the continual rise in those prices.’”

“Sean Black, CEO of Knock said the market reached a ‘crest’ in June when prices were up dramatically. ‘At the time it may have been appropriate leading up to then, but that market just completely changed overnight. And those homes didn’t price appropriately,’ he added sellers didn’t pivot quick enough to adjust prices, and the result has been a softening of the market.”

“Four days before Thanksgiving, senior leaders at Reverse Mortgage Funding broke the bad news to staffers: mortgage originations would cease immediately as executives worked toward a solution to the company’s very serious financial problems. The call ended so abruptly that staffers at the New Jersey-based reverse lender thought a technical issue caused the call to drop. ‘Given that they’re [RMF] declaring bankruptcy, at the end of the day, it’s not just that they lost warehouse lines,’ said Brett Ludden, managing director of mergers and acquisitions advisory firm Sterling Point Advisors. ‘They could have theoretically gone and found another warehouse line or cut volume and kept running [particularly with Starwood Capital as an owner and backer]. If they declared bankruptcy, that means that they either did not have any liquidity or their net worth was below zero.’”

“A recession is imminent but central banks won’t be able to support markets this time by loosening policy, according to the money manager. ‘Recession is foretold as central banks race to try to tame inflation. It’s the opposite of past recessions,’ BlackRock strategists said. ‘Central bankers won’t ride to the rescue when growth slows in this new regime, contrary to what investors have come to expect. Equity valuations don’t yet reflect the damage ahead.’”

“‘What worked in the past won’t work now,’ the strategists said. ‘The old playbook of simply ‘buying the dip’ doesn’t apply in this regime of sharper trade-offs and greater macro volatility. We don’t see a return to conditions that will sustain a joint bull market in stocks and bonds of the kind we experienced in the prior decade.’”

“Yellowknifer asked real estate agencies about the housing market in Yellowknife. Kim Knutson: ‘In general, the lower-end market is holding steady and we are finding the higher-priced homes are taking longer to sell and prices are coming down a bit. Currently there are five properties over $1 million on the market. It’s hard for vendors sometimes to realize we are not in the same crazy market as this past year and often they want the more aggressive prices. We are seeing a lot more price reductions.’”

“Toronto home prices dropped in November, the eighth consecutive monthly decline since the Bank of Canada started reducing the supply of cheap credit. Some regions with the greatest price increases over 2020 and 2021 continued to record price declines last month. In Durham, east of Toronto, the home price index is off by 23 per cent this year. In Peel, northwest of the city, the index is down 21 per cent.”

“Swedish property prices deepened their decline in November, offering no respite for home owners as higher interest rates weaken a market that’s already among the worst performing among developed nations this year. House prices in the Nordic nation have now lost 13% and apartment prices 12%, compared with peaks earlier this year. In neighboring Norway, the financial watchdog warned banks their losses could balloon under a worst case scenario where home prices may slump as much as 29% by 2025 from last year’s level, while the commercial property valuations risk plunging 47%.”

“‘During the pandemic years, prices increased sharply, and for apartments, the declines in 2022 have meant prices have approached levels seen before the pandemic,’ said Per-Arne Sandegren, an analyst at Svensk Maklarstatistik.”

“Prices of Hong Kong‘s residential properties plunged to a near five-year low as rising interest rates and a mass exodus of expat workers drove down prices. And industry insiders warn that the worst is yet to come. In YOHO town, a 393-square feet apartment that’s currently listed for 5.98 million Hong Kong dollars that’s about HK$15,216 per square foot, and a 20% drop in price compared to the previous month. ‘While there is pressure from the deteriorating fertility rate and the rapidly aging population, the collapse of immigration and the heated emigration wave have added fuel to the fire,’ Natixis said.”

“Brookfield Asset Management is on the lookout to acquire premium commercial property from distressed Chinese developers, aiming to increase its footprint in the world’s second-largest economy where fresh capital is needed to bail out the troubled real estate sector. ‘We are seeing opportunities and are pursuing lucrative deals,’ said Yang Yiwen, senior vice-president of real estate portfolio management. ‘There will be drawn-out negotiations because of pricing gaps to close.’ Some cash-strapped Chinese developers, under pressure to repay debts and cut leverage ratio, are putting up for sale office buildings and shopping malls – which are viewed as rare assets in the country’s most developed cities like Shanghai.”

“While Brookfield did not reveal the transaction value, Guangdong-based media outlet Time News reported that the company spent 1.3 billion yuan (US$185 million) on the three towers, citing unidentified officials from KWG. It translated into a 60 per cent discount to the price the two developers paid for the assets in 2010.”

“In a Real Estate Institute of New Zealand survey by independent economist Tony Alexander of 555 agents across the country, conducted in November, a net 39 percent reported seeing fewer people at auctions and 48 percent said they weren’t seeing as many people at open homes. In terms of fear of missing out, or ‘FOMO’, it was virtually non-existent. Just 4 percent of real estate agents reported seeing FOMO among buyers in November – a marked drop from the net 90 percent highs of this time last year.”

“Aligning with figures showing nationwide house prices on the downward slide, a record 74 percent of real estate agents reported declining prices in their area. Alexander’s report said this was up significantly from 45 percent in October. ‘The Reserve Bank’s cash rate increase and words of warning about recession have had an immediate impact on the real estate market,’ the report noted. ‘Buyers remain concerned about high-interest rates, access to finance and prices falling after buying.’”

“The official cash rate has gone up eight times this year, but it hasn’t increased Felix and Georgia Daniels’s mortgage repayments at all. Like many borrowers, they locked in an ultra-low fixed rate last year on their $600,000 mortgage. However, they are worried about how they will afford an extra $1,000 a month, or more, on their repayments when their fixed-rate term comes to an end next year. RateCity’s Sally Tindall warns some people may have to pay lenders mortgage insurance (LMI) in order to refinance, if the equity in their property is below 20 per cent.”

“Even those who had a 20 per cent deposit to start with may find their equity is below 20 per cent if their home’s value has fallen since they bought it. Some people may even become ‘mortgage prisoners,’ where they can’t move between lenders. ‘If you find yourself in mortgage prison, unable to refinance, roll up your sleeves, put on your best poker face and negotiate with your current bank,’ says Tindall.”

“Personal finance lecturer Di Johnson recommends to start living like your rates have already increased. If you do the calculations and think you won’t be able to afford the higher repayments, Johnson says it could be worth speaking to your lender’s financial hardship team. The banks consistently advise doing this as early as possible, before you find yourself in severe financial stress. They can help by waiving fees, pausing repayments or consolidating your debt. You could also contact a financial counsellor from the National Debt Helpline.”