The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party is being held this week. General Secretary Xi Jinping will remain in power, breaking the pattern set by his two immediate predecessors and hearkening to the days of Mao Zedong. Xi has at least five more years to leave his bootprint imprint on China. Many boring things are being written about this—there’s little reason to expect Xi to change.

Instead, consider what might have been. In September 2012, just before his ascension, Xi disappeared for two weeks. Rumors flew of a health problem, even an assassination attempt. The absence was possibly an early indication of Xi’s considerable paranoia. But what if it was not, what if Xi had died? What would China and the world look like now?

The man who would probably have replaced Xi is current party number two Li Keqiang. Most likely, Xi’s death would have allowed the same consensus decision-making by party elites that characterized China for the 20 years prior to 2012. In such a system, Li would be first among equals. (Under Xi, Li’s position is first among equally disposable.)

If Xi died and Li was the top decision maker, the clearest change would be economic. Prior to his promotion to the No. Two spot, Li called for a joint study with the World Bank of upcoming economic challenges. The result, China 2030, boasts a chapter titled “Structural Reforms for a Market-Based Economy,” and looks very different than what actually happened, for example the industrial policy manifesto “Made in China 2025.”

Li could not have immediately initiated a sharp shift toward competitive markets. Unlike Premier Zhu Rongji in the 1990s, Li did not have Deng Xiaoping’s blessing. What he would have had in his favor, as Xi did, was an incompetent predecessor. By 2011, it was recognized that then General Secretary Hu Jintao had fiddled while China’s economic trajectory deteriorated, and some sort of change was needed.

Not being Hu and starting with popular policies from China 2030, such as raising the retirement age and privatizing part of the banking system to offer savers more choices, would have opened the door to difficult reforms. 

There were many second-stage options, from an experimental rural land market to selling state-owned enterprises in non-strategic sectors. The first would have boosted wealth, the second encouraged innovation and reduced debt. One reason for intense disagreement about China’s economic path is that a return to pro-competition reform a decade ago would have made a huge difference.

The international side would also have changed. With the state retreating and the private sector advancing, industrial policy would have been less irritating for partners. The Belt and Road Initiative would not exist, though many of the embedded activities were already occurring and would have continued as China chased raw materials.

Li would not have conducted a purge in the guise of anti-corruption campaign. Without that, there wouldn’t have been a rush of money leaving China starting in 2014. A stronger balance of payments and a reform orientation could have helped the yuan become a truly independent reserve currency, moving toward a genuine challenge of the dollar. 

Greater economic gains at home and internationally would make China more confident but less willing to jeopardize its progress. Repression in Xinjiang is long-standing and would continue. But it’s difficult to imagine Li breaking Deng’s promise to leave Hong Kong alone until 2047, the way Xi did. Similarly, China’s military capabilities would have continued to rise but the country would have been less confrontational.

If COVID still erupts without Xi, China would both have better friends than it did, and be a better friend. Stronger international ties might have allowed sharing of MRNA vaccines in 2021 and less dogmatic commitment to zero-COVID. This in turn would have drastically improved economic performance in the last three years.

If Xi had died in 2012, the upcoming Party Congress would still see a transition to new leadership and pose risks for China and the world. But it would have avoided years more of a brutal, aging dictator looking to justify his cult of personality while the economy fades. Without Xi Jinping, China would be more prosperous and the world would be much safer.

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