We’re Experiencing A Little Bit Of A Plateau

A report from the Los Angeles Times in California. “Neal Baer, the pediatrician-turned-TV-writer is asking less than he paid for his Brentwood home. The charming Midcentury just hit the market for $3.35 million — or $150,000 shy of what he bought it for five years ago, records show. It’s not his first attempt to sell the property. He first floated it for sale at $4.195 million in 2017 before trimming the tag to $3.695 million a year later.”

The San Francisco Chronicle. “Has the Bay Area housing market finally priced itself out of reach for, well, everyone? According to a new survey of more than 100 economists and real estate experts, the answer is yes. As for the nation’s worst real estate market in 2020? The winner of that unfortunate designation is the Bay Area. San Francisco was at the top of the list for expected underperformers — 64% of experts believe it will underperform in 2020. It was closely trailed by San Jose: 61% of experts believe that city’s housing market will underperform.”

“The question is, will the Bay Area experience slower growth for the right reasons? Unfortunately, the answer is no. In a well-functioning housing market, housing prices would be falling because increases in demand would result in increases in new construction. In the Bay Area, a major reason for the slowdown is that people are leaving — and taking their need for housing with them.”

From ABC 7 News. “The housing market in the Bay Area will experience a cooling period this year, similar to 2019, according to a national survey conducted by Zillow. ‘Just based on interest rates and stock prices going up and down and fluctuating, I do believe there is a little bit of a slowdown,’ Simon Shue, a real estate agent with Compass said. ‘It’s still in an upward trend but we’re experiencing a little bit of a plateau.’”

The Bay Area Newsgroup. “There’s a home on South Jackson Avenue in San Jose’s Mayfair neighborhood that has it all: excellent location within walking distance of a school, parks and shops; a nearly acre-sized backyard; and — a rarity in California — a basement. But for at least a decade it has sat unoccupied — one of an estimated 46,000 such homes in the five-county Bay Area. This estimated total comes from new data released by the U.S. Census Bureau in December. The bureau’s data is the best available, even though it includes some newly built homes that are not yet occupied.”

“Based on the new census data, San Francisco has the most vacant homes in the five-county Bay Area at 11,760. It’s followed by Oakland at 5,898 and San Jose with 3,985. After that, Berkeley has 1,738 vacant homes and Richmond has 1,560. The margin of error in most other cities is too high for the data, which is based on a five-year aggregate of numbers compiled from 2014-2018, to be reliable.”

“There are an additional 21,788 seasonal or occasional-use houses in the Bay Area — think weekend homes or beach cottages. Of those, 8,523 are in San Francisco, 1,337 are in San Jose and 1,060 are in Fremont. It’s not clear how the census data accounts for Airbnb properties and other similar, short-term rentals.”