Trading Off Technological Progress and Resilience

In the inexorable push toward a more technologically sophisticated society, where—increasingly—physical “old-fashioned” means of communicating (such as newspapers and broadcast radio) are replaced by flashy digital websites and consumer-controlled podcasts and video streams, has something important been lost? Specifically, as more and more of these services become reliant on internet-mediated communication methods, have we created a society that is less resilient and therefore more exposed when facing unexpected challenges?

This question is front-of-mind in New Zealand this week, as we have faced our “Hurricane Katrina” moment. Cyclone Gabrielle tore down the north and eastern coasts of the North Island between February 14 and 16, leaving a trail of destruction and loss of life that is estimated to have as big an effect on New Zealand’s economy as the 2011 Christchurch earthquakes. As I wrote this post some six days later, eleven deaths had been confirmed, 3,200 people were still unaccounted for, and 28,000 homes were still without power. Roads and bridges in rural areas have been simply washed away. Regional cities Gisborne and Napier were literally cut off from the rest of the country for days. Rural town Wairoa still remains an “island,” inaccessible except by helicopter. The devastation in one of the prime heartlands of New Zealand’s agricultural and horticultural export industries has to be seen to be believed. Estimates have suggested the apple industry alone has suffered a catastrophic loss as trees in full fruit were ripped from the ground as floodwater torrents surged through orchards.

A view of flood damage in the aftermath of Cyclone Gabrielle in Hawke’s Bay, New Zealand. Via Reuters.

One thing coming to light in the aftermath is the extent to which near-total reliance by the relevant populations upon digital infrastructures has contributed to both a lack of preparedness and hampered recovery efforts.

First, in a world where people compile their own audio and video engagement via the World Wide Web, no common broadcast platform (such as mainstream television or radio channels) exists on which to warn people of impending events. Push notifications from meteorological services alert only those who have chosen to subscribe. Cell phone civil-defense alerts can be generated, but these are of limited effect if the warning systems that generate them are themselves vulnerable to the disaster. When the floodwaters washed out sensors in the headwaters of one river, it was impossible to warn the community below that evacuation was necessary. The grieving residents of this flood-prone valley are understandably bitter at the lack of warning.  

Second, the reliance on electricity and the internet to power almost every activity leaves people vulnerable when that supply is interrupted. Cell phones are capable of many things (including replacing the ubiquitous battery-powered transistor radios that were once an essential piece in emergency packs), but none of them work when their batteries goes flat. Furthermore, important information cannot get through on the internet when the fiber cables transmitting it to homes and cell phones are washed from the ground. (Hand-cranked cell phone chargers won’t help here.) And for WhatsApp users, how does one find an actual phone number to call?

This bleak reality led the Gisborne mayor to resort to ordering the local newspaper to print 22,000 copies of its Wednesday edition (it normal circulates 8,500) and requiring them to be hand-delivered to every residence in the municipality to ensure that vital health and safety information was conveyed in a timely manner. This proved somewhat more effective than Napier’s mayor requiring extra copies of that town’s newspaper be made available at supermarkets (as will be next explained).  

Internet and electricity outages compounded to reveal a third problem—near-total replacement of physical cash with digital versions. Even when (generator-powered) stores and gas stations could reopen, they couldn’t process electronic transactions because the network was down. Cash could not be procured from electronic terminals either, as these use the same connections. While Gisborne residents could read their free newspapers, those in Napier couldn’t even buy the necessary information. And in neither city could people buy food and supplies to begin the clean-up.

However, amid the doom and gloom, glimmers of hope are offered. One hero of the Gabrielle emergency has turned out to be the Starlink satellite internet service. Connection kits were among the first supplies helicoptered into the stranded towns, allowing communication with the outside world, at least for the essential service providers. Later on, specialized kits with electronic funds transfer at point of sale–connectivity were delivered to supermarkets and gas stations, allowing the wheels of commerce (including the purchase of essential supplies) to slowly begin grinding.

What New Zealand’s Gabrielle disaster has revealed is that resilience in a fully digital age is complicated. Old-fashioned communications and satellite internet connections appear to be essential backstops—increasingly more so as more of what we do becomes internet-mediated.  

The post Trading Off Technological Progress and Resilience appeared first on American Enterprise Institute – AEI.