I’d rather talk about President Joe Biden’s fear of making China trade decisions. But former President Donald Trump insists he’s running again, and his China record was worse. Trump was roughly Biden-level on China—not good—going into 2020. Then COVID hit and Trump’s China failure was so ugly that even Biden could take him apart. Republicans saying China is a vital issue then supporting Trump would hand Democrats an important win.
COVID of course starts in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), though the Chinese still lie about it. It was probably not due to a lab leak but, on the chance it was, Trump’s complete failure to retaliate is that much more unbelievable. In the “good” case, China suffered a terrible accident, refused to cooperate with countries that suffered terribly from its mistake, tries to confuse everyone with propaganda, and offers nothing in the way of even symbolic compensation.
Trump’s response consisted of suspending travel from the PRC, a needed protective step. His usual, pointless name-calling may have caused the Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping to repeatedly break into uncontrollable giggles. That’s it.
No demands for compensation from China, backed up by the threats Trump otherwise makes all the time. Not more of his favorite—tariffs. No action to make America less dependent in obvious areas such as medical supplies, by requiring secure supply chains. No limiting of US investment in China, which skyrocketed by almost $800 billion while Trump was president and which makes the tariffs look like small change.
We know why Trump did nothing—the thing he cared most about wasn’t Americans dying from COVID, it was his China trade deal. In 2020, the PRC was supposed to import about $80 billion more from the US than it did in 2017 (plus more in 2021). Instead, though, China imported $5 billion less worth of goods in 2020 than 2017, and almost $40 billion less when services are included.
For anyone not blinded by Beijing, the deal was dead before it was signed. It was December 30, 2019, when COVID became an urgent medical issue in China. Their delegation still signed the trade agreement on January 15, 2020. The Trump administration began screening incoming air passengers just two days after that. Trump knew COVID was dangerous but somehow believed the trade deal would be fine, anyway.
No surprise—US exports to the PRC started off terribly in 2020. Even Trump loyalist and trade advisor Peter Navarro warned about the pandemic in late January and correctly called the deal dead by June. He was brushed aside by Trump. As late as August, Trump insisted “We’re doing very well in our trade deal,” when exports were stagnant. A month before the 2020 election, Trump vaguely threatened the PRC, but again did nothing.
After making a fair point about previous US presidents being played by China, Trump got played worse than any of them. Six months into the pandemic, instead of taking action, he was still talking about how great his relationship with Xi Jinping used to be. What that great relationship did was help China get away with its COVID behavior, scot-free.
For Republicans looking to 2024, every possible candidate can attack Biden’s weak China record, except one. Republicans should be requiring that sensitive supply chains be independent of China, to avoid the US being cut off in a confrontation. They should be ensuring that American investment in China doesn’t support its military or its repression or companies that have broken American law.
But if Trump changed directions and called for actions like these, it would instantly raise the question of what he was doing for four years in office, worst of all the last year when America was basically attacked. Answer: He let a brutal dictatorship get away with murder and made America look weak, in exchange for a bag of magic beans.
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