The Risks Of Real Estate Bubbles Caused By Rumors And Herd Instinct

A report from Banking Dive. “Wells Fargo has begun laying off an undisclosed number of its home lending employees, little more than a week after reporting mortgage origination volume had dropped 33% year over year, the bank confirmed Friday. Anonymous posts on the discussion board The Layoff indicate job cuts hit at least five markets — Phoenix; San Antonio; Minneapolis; Charlotte, North Carolina; and Des Moines, Iowa. ‘Processing, underwriting, and credit administration teams were notified ‘their position would be eliminated because of the changing mortgage market,’ one commenter wrote. ‘They were given a 2 week notice.’”

The Detroit News. “The country’s largest lender is looking to reduce its workforce amid a shrinking mortgage market following two years of record loan volume. Officials said Monday that Detroit-based Rocket Mortgage and Amrock, its title company, are offering voluntary buyouts to 8% of employees. Rocket Companies, which includes Rocket Mortgage, employs 26,000, mostly in Detroit.”

“‘Over that time, we have been through several market cycles — similar to those the industry is experiencing today,’ Mike Malloy, chief administrative officer at Rocket Central, said in a statement Monday. ‘As a result of today’s market, some team members have told us they are considering a move to another position or a completely different industry.’”

From WKYC on Ohio. “It’s a statistic that you don’t want to lead. The Greater Cleveland metro area is now topping the nation in foreclosures. In metro areas with a population of at least 200,000 people, Cleveland leads the way in foreclosures with one in every 535 housing units affected. Realtor Joe Zingales beleves more are on the way. ‘But it will not collapse the market, And it will not be, in my humble opinion, what it was like in 2009, 10, and 11,’ he says.”

The Arizona Republic. “When Deborah Torzone saw the Arizona Department of Housing was launching a mortgage assistance program late last year, she thought she finally had found reprieve from her pandemic employment struggles. Representatives from Chase told her not to worry about the automated calls, but she did and wondered what effect they would have on her credit score. ‘Everybody keeps changing the rules. Meanwhile, I’m dropping down a big deep hole,’ Torzone said.”

From KRON in California. “Bidding wars in the San Francisco real estate market were down in March compared to one year ago, according to a new report that suggests that homebuyer demand in the Bay Area and elsewhere is starting to cool. ‘March was the first month in two years that I had a weekend with zero house tours. People are getting priced out,’ said Maria Giron, a Redfin real estate agent in the Bay Area. ‘Some buyers are in shock and dropping out altogether. Others are looking at more affordable options.’”

The Vancouver Sun in Canada. “Homebuyers are showing less urgency and shifting their approach to making purchases as one economist forecasts that a rapid rise in interest rates will see prices in expensive markets such as B.C. drop. ‘There is definitely a slowdown now. I can sense it. I can feel it,’ said One Flat Fee real estate agent Mayur Arora, who has clients in both Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley. ‘Markets are driven by sentiment, and now the sentiment is toward a slowdown.’”

“He said there is generally less optimism among would-be buyers, leading to hesitation over whether prices may be lowered if there are fewer or no bids. ‘Before, people would ask, ‘What do I have to do to get this property?’ And now it is, ‘Let’s wait for a few days for a price drop and then we can move forward.’ ‘A few weeks ago, it used to be open house on the weekend and then offers on the Monday or Tuesday, with a guaranteed sale. Now, it is private showings and hugely reduced open house traffic, with no guarantee of an offer.’”

From Motley Fool. “We are finally seeing signs that Canada’s housing bubble is starting to burst. StatCan released housing market data showing that the average Canadian house price declined sequentially in March. The culprit, it would seem, is higher interest rates. There are some signs that a real estate correction may be occurring in Canada’s big cities. Some real estate brokers are reporting substantially lower selling prices in Toronto’s North York area, and there are similar reports from other cities as well.”

The Vietnam Express. “As prices rise and fall rapidly amid rumors of future development in a ‘fever’ spreading across Vietnam, some people are becoming rich overnight and others are falling into debt. Hanoi real estate broker Hoang Hiep has been visiting the suburban district of Soc Son almost every day for the last three months as customers have been increasingly asking about property there. New brokerage offices have been mushrooming around Soc Son since the beginning of this year. ‘I myself have made large profits from my investments here in the last few months, so I know there are still opportunities,’ Hiep says.”

“In the central province of Ha Tinh, where land prices in some areas have risen by 20 times since 2019, the low-income family of Tran Thi Lan has been able to obtain VND1.9 billion ($83,065) for their 1,800-square-meter piece of land. She says: ‘I never thought this piece of land would be priced that high. When I held the cash, my hands shook and I was crying.’”

“In Hanoi’s Hoai Duc District, Minh Huyen saw her apartment value rise by 20 percent in three months and sold it in January, abandoning her initial plan to rent it out. ‘There are many opportunities for more profit and so I sold it to buy a plot of land,’ she says.”

“But not all investors succeed in making money. Nguyen Minh Khang, CEO of real estate developer LDG Group, estimates that around 80 percent of land speculators are likely to end up with losses as demand subsides as quickly as it rises. Hoang Minh in the central province of Thanh Hoa is one such loser. He bought several plots of land in the province for around VND1 billion each in March last year, borrowing a third of the money from friends and family.”

“The prices he paid were 40 percent higher than just a month earlier, but by mid-April they had fallen by double digits as the number of inquiries dropped. Minh cannot sell except at a big loss, so he has been holding on to them, along with the debts, hoping for another jump in prices in future.”

“Officials from the Ministry of Construction have warned localities about the risks of real estate bubbles caused by rumors of developments and herd instinct, which could cause social disruptions. But Vu Cong is unfazed by these warnings and sees his recent purchase of a piece of land in Hanoi’s Dong Anh District for VND80 million per square meter as a timely investment. ‘Dong Anh could become a city within a city in a few years, so I will surely make more money.’”

From Bloomberg. “HSBC Holdings Plc, the largest foreign bank in China, warned of further potential hits from the nation’s battered real estate market as defaults continue to climb amid a worsening Covid outbreak. ‘It’s a big call to say that we’ve seen the worst,’ Ewen Stevenson, HSBC’s chief financial officer, said in an interview with Bloomberg News. ‘Do I think that there could be further provisions this year? Yes, it’s possible.’”

“The London-based bank took a $160 million provision against China commercial real estate in the first quarter, on top of a $450 million charge in the previous quarter. HSBC had $21.3 billion of exposure to China’s property sector as of Dec. 31, and Stevenson said that the portfolio is under control for the time being.”