The Only Thing In Dispute Is By How Much House Prices Will Be Going Down

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Laura Loyd, a single mother of four had been laid off from her job at a resort in nearby Branson when tourism froze up from coronavirus. Tony LaGrand, who was the landlord at the time, had just turned 24 when he purchased the units in February. LaGrand, who lost the property to foreclosure, says he’s now more than $1.6 million in debt. ‘The place was falling apart,’ LaGrand said. ‘I didn’t have any rent coming in, and people wouldn’t pay. It was a really messed up situation. I spent my entire life savings on this project.’”

“Attorneys in Massachusetts challenged Gov. Charlie Baker’s blanket moratorium on evictions this summer, arguing it was overly broad and unconstitutional, said real estate attorney Richard Vetstein. The case’s named landlord, Marie Baptiste, had a tenant who owed $18,900 for eight months of unpaid rent and was struggling to maintain her finances. ‘Everyone’s getting screwed,’ Vetstein said.”

“Just under half of renter households lost income from mid-March to mid-September. Roughly 15% were behind on their monthly rents. Many have been helped by a patchwork of eviction moratoriums and other local, state, and federal protections and assistance, including unemployment benefits. Some of these benefits are about to run out. ‘There’s a limit to how long [landlords] can … survive without income coming in,’ says Managing Director Chris Herbert of Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University.”

“‘What we’re seeing is that renters who might have been in a small apartment are instead looking at larger units — maybe a two-bedroom instead of a one-bedroom,’ said Zillow Premier Agent Kenny Truong, founder of Fast Real Estate in the San Francisco Bay Area. ‘Some others are moving to a rental with a view or a yard for a similar price.’ On a national basis, the typical monthly rent was nearly 1 percent higher in September but lower than last year in seven major metro areas. This suggests that a glut of empty apartments has pulled rents lower in some areas.”

“The Downtown Chicago apartment market continued to struggle in the third quarter. Occupancy rate for Downtown apartments dropped to 87.1 percent from 93.8 percent in Q3 2019, Crain’s reported, citing Integra Realty Resources. It marked the lowest point since Integra began tracking the downtown market 22 years ago. As a way to keep tenants in place, landlords slashed rents between 18 and 23 percent from the third quarter of 2019, according to the report.”

“With nearly 14,615 apartments listed in the Denver area, prospective renters are enthusiastic about the market, searching for cheaper rents, taking advantage of increased concessions, and looking for properties with more space. This increase in consumer optimism is a positive sign following a sharp drop in searches (since peaking in January 2020). Denver apartment complex’s are also getting creative to entice renters with offers like living six weeks free with free parking for a year to 50 percent off rent for three months. Concessions jumped sharply to new heights nationally in October 2020 with 52 percent of apartment buildings in Denver offering a deal, up from 27 percent in October 2019. Additionally, 18 percent of apartment buildings are offering one or more concessions exceeding one month’s free rent — a tell-tale sign of a stressed market.”

“Boston’s Zoning Board of Appeals Tuesday rejected hospitality company Sonder’s push to convert 21 residential units at a downtown building into executive suites. Downtown BID CEO Rosemarie Sansone, a backer of Sonder’s proposal, said in a statement the executive suites issue shouldn’t be tied to existing housing needs. ‘It is unfortunate that they were denied at a time when property owners are doing all they can to make sure their properties are active and vibrant and not empty in these challenging and unprecedented times,’ Sansone said.”

“New listings coming to market have been up for several months, ‘a positive indicator for the market,’ said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist of Virginia Realtors. More homes available may ease the psychological pressure on prospective purchasers to grab the first thing they see – a trait that also accompanied the 2001-07 real-estate boom that preceded the national 2008-09 crash. And the prospect of a housing ‘bubble’ that ultimately bursts is only one concern for the market. Sturtevant pointed to the prospect of more stringent economic lockdowns.”

“A short-term rental ban in Palm Desert will be expanded to include homes in planned residential zoning districts, effective Dec. 31, 2021. The ban affects 69 vacation rental properties in these PR-zoned neighborhoods. Short-term rental owner Cody Carlson urged the council not to impose the ban not just for the sake of property owners but also for those who maintain the properties who could lose their jobs as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to impact the overall economy. ‘People are losing their jobs, unable to put food on their tables, questioning if the roof over their head will be there tomorrow,’ Carlson said.”

“As the Toronto-area real estate market cools in November, some sellers of downtown condos are already thinking about the spring of 2021. Christopher Bibby, real estate agent with Re/Max Hallmark Bibby Group Realty Ltd., has done ‘lots of damage control and hand-holding’ since the COVID-19 pandemic prompted governments to impose emergency health measures in March. Prices for condo units in downtown Toronto have dipped, he says. ‘To say the market is flat is inaccurate,’ he says. ‘It’s quite evident the market is down.’”

“Some owners contact him to say they are considering listing a unit but they won’t sell below a certain price. Usually people want to know the truth, he says, but not everyone understands the complexities of the current market. ‘I tell them, I really genuinely believe that I can’t achieve a number like that,’ he says. ‘There are some people whose ideas align with a pre-pandemic market. It’s as if they are almost in denial about what’s going on.’”

“There’s no longer a mad rush to get in to see a unit the same day it arrives on the market. ‘It’s actually quite fun being a buyer right now. There were buildings you could never get into. You can get into those buildings today and pay five per cent under asking.’”

“‘Generally, tenants tend to move in with family or share with friends in tough economic times, and this reduces the overall demand for rental units. This results in landlords offering reduced rents, not only to retain quality tenants but also to achieve the desirable level of occupancy to remain afloat. We see the emergence of this theme playing out in the Namibian rental market particularly in the high-end segment,’ added Frans Uusiku, FNB Market Researcher. Walvis Bay continues to bear the brunt of a deeper contraction in rent prices of 43.9% y/y, followed by Ondangwa (-30.3% y/y), Rundu (-20.5% y/y), Oshakati (-17% y/y).”

“When taking inflation into account house prices in South Africa will likely keep falling for the next five years, according to property economist Erwin Rode. ‘The only thing in dispute is by how much house prices will be going down in real terms,’ he said. ‘Until recently banks were prepared to grant 100% mortgages, which made me worried of what the eventual outcome of this policy would be.’”

“C P Tan owns apartments in several buildings located in Kuala Lumpur. He rents out these strata units on a short-term basis and uses the income to service his loan but is now worried about whether he can continue the practice. Already, the building management of an apartment building near the Petronas Twin Towers where Tan owns a unit has informed him he can no longer rent out his unit on a short-term basis.”

“‘It is said that bad things come in threes. As it is, the economy was already slowing down before the last election and we now have an unstable government. Because of Covid-19 and its domino effect on the travel-related industry, I am no longer getting tenants like before. Now, this decision by the Federal Court may encourage other buildings to also ban short-term rentals.’”

“Following a client uprising over the weekend that drove rumours of bankruptcy early this week, Beijing-based rental platform Danke Apartments may be in line for a buyout, according to local media reports. Danke’s troubles appeared to peak over the weekend when Chinese media reported that angry crowds of evicted tenants and unpaid landlords had gathered outside the company’s Hangzhou, Beijing and Shenzhen offices demanding termination of the contracts and accompanying loans.”

“On Monday tenants and landlords gathered at offices in Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Beijing, where at least 100 people gate-crashed Danke’s headquarters, according to local media accounts. They queued up and went to different registration points, with tenants requesting refunds and deposits while landlords sought contract termination.”

“Phoenix Tree was valued at $2.74 billion at the time of its American IPO in January but has since shed 83 percent of its value to a low of $300 million, according to The Paper. Danke’s value is currently $800 million. The company founded by Gao Jing has been plagued by money issues since it started an aggressive expansion campaign in 2017, and it has yet to post a profit. Danke reported a RMB 3.4 billion ($480 million) loss for 2019.”

“Danke and many others’ model is similar to that of failed co-working giant WeWork’s. Danke takes long-term leases on existing homes and divides them into dorm-style flats, which it subsequently sublets to young professionals, but which also leaves the company holding long-term liabilities. The dodgy practice is common in the largely unregulated sector and has added to the drama as a host of mainland apartment platforms have defaulted or closed down this year, 58 Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute chief analyst Zhang Bo told the SCMP. ‘Before Danke, more than a dozen smaller operators have shut up shop this year,”’ he said.”