The Mania Is Now In The Rear View Mirror

A report from the Record Eagle in Michigan. “Andrew Dodson and his wife were able to secure a home near downtown Traverse City before the housing bubble expanded after the new year. Still, Andrew said their new home cost about $450,000. ‘Since we’ve closed, I’ve followed the houses in the neighborhood and I’m just amazed,’ he said. ‘There’s a house down the street that sold for I think $1.2 million. I keep following the houses in town of similar size and they’re going for 50, 60, 70 over what we paid.’”

From WVIR in Virginia. “The Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS has released its latest quarterly report, and housing prices are still through the roof. However, the report says mortgage rates are starting to settle and pandemic buying has started to calm down. ‘We’re having a little increase in days on market, a little less fervor at each sign in a yard and at each new listing, and still a lot of value,’ CAAR President Quinton Beckham said. ‘Not quite the wildfire that it was.’”

From South Tahoe Now in California. “This market can’t possibly sustain itself-right? So what are some indicators that the market may eventually slow down? Well-known Real Estate Appraiser and Housing Market Analyst, Ryan Lundquist shares seven indicators of a softening market. More homes are selling below the list price: There are slightly more homes selling at or below the list price right now. For two months in a row we’ve seen fewer multiple offers in the Sacramento region. More listings are hitting the market: We still don’t have enough listings to satisfy demand, but there are now literally hundreds of extra listings on any given day in the Sacramento region compared to a few months ago.”

From Palo Alto Online in California. “The first half of 2021 was the most active six months in the past decade for the local real estate market with 431 new listings on the multiple listing system — a 45% increase from the first half of 2020 and 30% more than the past 10-year average. Unlike the supply shortage reported in the news for most parts of the nation, Palo Alto had an ample supply of houses for sale. Neighboring Menlo Park and Los Altos also experienced their largest inventory since 2011.”

“The increased supply was driven in part by pent-up demand due to the pandemic and by the very strong pricing environment at the beginning of the year after more than two years of price correction.”

The Oklahoman. “It was an abrupt slowdown, compared with most of the first half of the year. January’s 484 new-home starts were down 3.4% compared with the year-ago number, but February-May saw bounding increases of 7%, 21.5%, 77.6%, and 45.3% ccording to Dharma Inc.’s Builder Report. It all left construction ahead of last year 21.8% compared with the first half of 2020.”

“The stats went flat in June even with demand for houses still robust, although it has cooled somewhat. ‘With interest rates still extremely low, Ideal Homes & Neighborhoods is seeing a higher sales volume than the same time period in 2019, but sales are trending toward a more normal volume compared to the previous 12 months,’ said Erin Yarbrough, the Norman-based builder’s director of marketing. ‘While our completed homes for sale are still extremely low in inventory, the number of homes completing in the next 30-90 days offers a larger selection of options for home buyers than they’ve had over the past 12 months.’”

From National Mortgage Professional. “‘Home sellers are increasingly having to lower their expectations,’ said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather.”

From Yahoo News. “Millions of homeowners are delinquent on their mortgage, and after the foreclosure moratorium expired Saturday, many of them face the threat of eviction. ‘For them to allow us to do the forbearance, it was a blessing,’ said Laura Landry, a New Orleans homeowner. ‘But then when you think you got to make all those payments all at once again eventually, that’s when reality wakes you up.’”

The New York Post. “Developers, landlords, building lenders and other industry associates pumped nearly $500,000 into Cuomo’s re-election coffers over the past six months. ‘It’s classic pay-to-play. There’s no doubt about it,’ Michael McKee of the Tenants PAC, which wants the law repealed, charged of the political donations to Cuomo. ‘We are going to spearhead a major campaign to terminate this law. It’s totally obscene we are subsidizing millionaires and billionaires with property tax breaks. There’s a glut of luxury housing.’”

The Georgia Straight in Canada. “By all indications, markets marked another slowdown in July 2021. The decline is most pronounced in detached homes. Numbers crunched by Zealty.ca indicate that 1,041 single-family homes were sold in markets served by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) in July 2021. The number represents an 18 percent month-over-month decline from June 2021, and a 7.4 percent drop compared to July 2020. The same picture emerges for the markets served by the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (FVREB). It’s the same story for the Chilliwack and Region Real Estate Board (CADREB).”

“These all mean one thing for Adam Major, CEO of Zealty.ca. ‘This is a sign that the COVID mania driving demand for more space and a detached home in the suburbs is finally reversing,’ Major told the Straight. Real estate markets peaked in Greater Vancouver and the rest of the Lower Mainland in March 2021. That is all now in the rear view mirror. ‘Bottom line is that although the market has slowed 42 percent since March,’ Major said about Greater Vancouver.”

“Meanwhile, the federal government of Canada announced on July 30 that it is extending COVID-19 benefits and business supports. ‘Thanks to Tiff and the free money machine for keeping the party going!’ Major said tongue in cheek. ‘Let’s hope they never take the punch bowl away!’”

From Toronto Storeys. “Canadians drove up real estate prices in the last year as they went into a buying frenzy, deciding to make that first-time purchase, relocate, or upsize. But one third of homeowners report feeling ‘house poor,’ and nearly half are concerned that they won’t be able to make ends meet in the next year without going deeper into debt — the highest level in three years.”

“Buyers who purchased homes at the peak in the last year and who are also racking up other debts could be vulnerable, say industry experts. If they purchased at the peak in the last year, and there is a market correction, as well as a spike in rates, the concern is their ability to ride out the mortgage payment increases. ‘If you are getting into a home on early inheritance or some other form of down payment, and you are thinking that low interest rates will continue on throughout the duration of the mortgage, I think there are going to be some surprises,’ says MNP president Grant Bazian.”

“Another group that could be at risk are the ones who have been buying up multiple properties as investments. Mortgage broker Derek Christiansen, who’s been in the business for 18 years, says a lot of mortgage brokers have seen that sort of activity in the last year, by people who are just average income earners, without a buffer. They could be in trouble. ‘I’ve seen some people that have no business owning two or three properties stretching themselves to buy two or three properties. Some have done really well and made huge money. Others are in trouble if COVID happens again and the tenants decide they don’t want to pay the rent.’”

The Associated Press. “Evictions nationwide are expected to ramp up after the federal moratorium pausing many during the pandemic ended. In Cleveland County, North Carolina deputies never stopped serving eviction paperwork to struggling tenants.”

From CBS 19. “In Rhode Island on Monday, Gabe Imondi, a 74-year-old landlord, was in court hoping to get an eviction execution — the final step to push a tenant out of one of four housing units he owns in nearby Pawtucket. Imondi said he and his tenant both filed forms for the billions in federal aid meant to help keep tenants in their homes but so far, he said, he hasn’t seen a cent of the state’s $200 million share.”

“A retired general contractor, Imondi estimates he’s out around $20,000 in lost rent since September, when he began seeking to evict his tenant for non-payment. The eviction was approved in January. ‘I don’t know what they’re doing with that money,’ Imondi said.”

“While the moratorium was enforced in much of the country, there were places like Idaho where judges ignored it, said Ali Rabe, executive director of a non-profit that works to prevent evictions in the Boise metropolitan area. The non-profit represented renters in about 800 evictions in the past year, and only once was the moratorium enforced, Rabe said. Statewide about 1,500 people were evicted in the past year, she said. ‘Eviction courts ran as usual,’ she said.”