While Ukraine’s fortunes on the battlefield have stagnated and to an extent reversed since the failed summer 2023 counteroffensive, in some areas Kyiv continues to find and exploit advantages. One of the most notable areas where Ukraine maintains the upper hand is exploiting vulnerabilities in the Russian air defense network to launch a series of effective long distance drone strikes on military bases and industrial facilities across the south and west of Russia. Systems such as the ‘Liutiy’ loitering munition UAV system with its 600-mile combat radius and its 110-pound explosive payload, in particular, have been responsible for a series of successful attacks against Russian oil refineries in recent months that have marred Moscow’s ability to produce and export oil and gas for the domestic and international market.

Beyond oil refineries, Kyiv has also developed drone capabilities that can strike at Russia’s defense industrial base. In April, Ukrainian forces demonstrated these capabilities in a daring strike on a factory manufacturing Russia’s own Geran-2 long range loitering munition UAV in the city of Yelabuga in the Republic of Tatarstan, over 700 miles from the Ukrainian border. A copy of the Iranian Shahed-136 drone, which was used in large numbers during Tehran’s April strike on Israel, the Geran has become one of Russia’s weapons of choice, seeing extensive use on targets throughout Ukraine. The effects of the attack were disputed between Russian and Ukrainian authorities, but the strike, carried out with an ultralight A-22 Foxbat aircraft converted into a long range drone, has proven that Kyiv’s ability to strike deep within Russia is ever expanding. With rumors of recent strikes on Russian early warning radar conducted 1000 miles from Ukraine’s borders and some experts suggesting that Ukrainian UAVs with a range as far as 1800 miles could soon become a reality, Moscow may find the heartland of its defense industrial base under direct threat.

Located deep within central Russia in the Volga River basin and the Ural Mountains, largely a legacy of the mass evacuation of Soviet industry to the east in the aftermath of Nazi Germany’s 1941 invasion of the Soviet Union, a network of factories (a selection of which are shown below) provides for the production, modernization and maintenance of the Russian Army’s most critical transport, support and combat platforms:

Due to the limited number of factories servicing the Russian military, the consequences of an effective Ukrainian drone campaign against Russia’s defense industrial heartland could be potentially catastrophic for the Kremlin’s war effort. Significant disruption to factories such as Uralvagonzavod, the largest tank factory in the world, and KAMAZ, which produces almost 50,000 trucks a year, could bring the Russian Army to a halt as it continues to attempt to press a Ukrainian Army bent to its breaking point amidst Russia’s ongoing offensive in Donbas and Kharkiv Oblast.

With further advancements in range and capability, Ukraine may soon find itself able to punish Russia’s war effort deep behind the frontlines even as Kyiv and Washington remain locked in disagreements about how and when Western weapons systems can be used inside Russia. With Russia’s domestic oil industry already suffering the consequences of a Ukrainian drone campaign, a campaign that has persisted despite the White House’s objections, the Kremlin could next find its very ability to wage war under threat.

[1] Measured from northeastern Kharkiv Oblast, near the Russian border.

The post Russia’s Defense Industrial Heartland Could Soon Be under the Gun of Ukrainian Drones appeared first on American Enterprise Institute – AEI.