Nobody Saw A Lot Of This Stuff Coming

A report from Go Banking Rates. “‘For buyers, it will be a welcome relief because it has been hell over the last few years,’ said Bill Gassett, a realtor based in Hopkinton, Massachusetts. ‘For sellers, they will have missed out on one of the best economic housing booms of our lifetime.’ Trey Langford, a real estate agent based in the Boise, Idaho, area said the frenzy in his local market is slowly starting to decline. ‘Now it takes two weekends to sell a home,’ he said. ‘The market is still hot, just slowing down from 100 mph. Last spring it seemed like every home had eight to 20 offers and now it seems like buyers are only competing with two other offers. Many sellers will need to adjust their expectations, because it is not spring 2021 still.’”

The Star Tribune in Minnesota. “Agents are noticing that sellers are being a little less aggressive about prices. And more prospective sellers are asking agents about listing, sensing that price and bargaining power may soon shift away from them. ‘The fear of the unknown is happening,’ said Angela Schliinz, chief operating officer at Kris Lindahl Real Estate. ‘They want to take advantage of what the market is presenting right now.’ An observable shift in the market is underway, Schliinz said. By the end of April, new listings were up 11% over last year. Inquiries from people who are thinking about selling their home had increased far more, she said.”

The Gilbert Sun in Arizona. “The average sale price of a single-family house in Gilbert has increased 69% in two years and while home prices likely will continue to rise, mortgage rates and an apparent cooling in demand may spell trouble ahead for sellers, a leading Valley housing analyst said last week. The Cromford Report noted that inventory of for-sale homes also is rising while the number of closings is trending downward. ‘April is supposed to be one of the best months for the market, but new contract signings are significantly lower than last year. This means active listings are staying active longer and inventory is starting to build in most (but not all) segments,’ it stated.”

“Stating that the sellers market is slowly deteriorating in 17 major Valley municipalities, the Cromford Report said that between mid-March and mid-April, Cromford Report noted, ‘We have seen a 34% increase in the number of new rental listings added to ARMLS (Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service) compared with the same four weeks in 2021.’ It added there has also been a 20% increase in the number of rental homes available in Phoenix on the Progress Residential web site over the past four weeks.”

“And on May 1, it reported, ‘Supply has been arriving in greater quantities over the past few weeks. This applies to both rental and for-sale listings.’ Cromford also stated, ‘Red flag warning. The housing market is changing more rapidly with rising supply and falling demand. While it remains far above normal for now, the (index) is dropping fast.’”

The Pueblo Chieftain in Colorado. “Pueblo’s real estate market is still red-hot, but there are a few signs that it could be losing steam.  In April, 386 homes went on the market, up 24.2% when compared to April 2021. ‘You are seeing people putting homes on the market and the number of homes under contract are high,’ said Dave Anderson, Pueblo Association of Realtors’ number cruncher. ‘But we are seeing some price reductions and some of them are not small – $5,000 to $10,000. I am thinking that’s because sellers are expecting the homes to sell fast and if that doesn’t happen, they are lowering their price right away.’”

From KSBY in California. “Mortgage rates are rapidly increasing across the country and that’s affecting buyers on the Central Coast. Local economists say though the rates have also likely not reached their peak. ‘We’ve had the fastest increase in mortgage rates we’ve ever seen,’ said Hal Sweasey, real estate broker for Keller Williams. The increase in mortgage rates is already affecting Central Coast homebuyers. ‘You know if you were getting a loan for a million dollars back in February, now that loan is the equivalent of costing like $250,000 more,’ said Sweasey.”

“Sweasey says he’s recently seen a bit of slow down from buyers in the San Luis Obispo area due to the increase in mortgage rates. ‘It went from a frantic rate to more of a normal rate. We still have multiple offers depending on price range,’ said Sweasey.”

From Yahoo Finance. “DLB Financial Services CEO Debbie Boyd joins Yahoo Finance Live to discuss rising mortgage rates, the costs homebuilders and lenders are taking on, investors taking their money out of the real estate market. ‘So if you could afford an $800,000 house before, you may be down to a $550,000 or $600,000 house. A lot’s changed in people’s finances. And so if you’re paying more on credit card bills, if your car payments have gone up, if you bought a new car since you’ve qualified, a lot of people are finding themselves kind of stuck in the middle.’ You’ve got to be qualifying all through the process. You just can’t wait to the end when you’re supposed to buy it. This is something that lenders should have been doing all along.’”

“BRIGGS: At the risk of sounding insensitive, is this failure to plan for the future? BOYD: It is for the people buying the houses, and it is for the home builders. But nobody saw a lot of this stuff coming.’”

From Bloomberg. “Canadian home prices fell for the first time in two years as a rapid rise in interest rates looks set to threaten one of the world’s hottest housing markets. Ian Soucy, a realtor in Ottawa, said he’s been surprised by how much the market has cooled this spring. ‘Buyers are hesitant, just with the unknown of the interest rates rising,’ Soucy said, pointing to the likelihood of another 50-basis-point hike in June. Entry-level townhomes that were ‘flying off the shelves’ as recently as a couple months ago are now sitting on the market for a few weeks, he said.”

“‘After 12 years of ‘higher interest rates are just around the corner,’ here they are,’ said Shaun Cathcart, the real estate board’s senior economist.”

The Canadian Press. “‘The demand fever in Canadian housing has broken and, who would have thought, all it took was a nudge in interest rates by the Bank of Canada to change sentiment,’ said BMO Capital Markets senior analyst Robert Kavcic, in a note to investors.”

From CBC News. “Canadian home prices fell six per cent to $746,000 in April, as higher interest rates poured cold water on a red-hot real estate market. Home sales fell 12 per cent nationally in April, with the biggest drops seen in big cities like Toronto, the Canadian Real Estate Association said. Prices peaked at a record high of more than $816,000 in February this year and average home prices have now declined for two months in a row. In March, the average price stood at $796,000, before falling another six per cent in April, which is typically a strong month for the housing market.”

“Leah Zlatkin, a mortgage broker, gives the example of a buyer who makes an offer assuming their lender will finance 80 per cent of the cost. But when the property gets appraised, it is valued at a number much lower than the offer price, which forces the buyer to scramble to come up with a much larger down payment than they anticipated. ‘When home purchasers have really stretched their budget and bid over asking price, we are starting to see those appraisals come in a little bit lower in some cases,’ Zlatkin told CBC News.”

“A slowing market is also anxiety-inducing for those who jumped in at the peak and have buyer’s remorse now. That’s something recent buyers Joshua Keyes and Yuri Nakashima are sadly familiar with, after buying their first home in Sudbury, Ont., earlier this year. Since they were living in Vancouver, they worked with a Sudbury-based realtor who the couple says didn’t encourage enough due diligence, causing them to offer far over asking price for a property that has since proven to have numerous problems with water and other damages, a cockroach infestation and other structural issues.”

“They say they didn’t view the home virtually or in person before submitting their unconditional offer, with no home inspection. They say they now face a six-figure bill to repair their currently uninhabitable dream home. ‘We’re hoping that our story serves as a cautionary tale for other first-time home buyers,’ Keyes told CBC in an interview. ‘Make sure you do your due diligence or else people will take advantage of your ignorance.’”

From Bloomberg. “China’s main bond trading platform for foreign investors has quietly stopped providing data on their transactions, a move that may heighten concerns about transparency in the nation’s $20 trillion debt market after record outflows. Daily trades by overseas investors were last provided for May 11 by the China Foreign Exchange Trade System, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing private information. The data showed sizable net foreign outflows that day, with some selling also seen for most days in April, the people said.”

“It’s unclear why CFETS stopped publishing the figures, which are typically updated one day later, the people said. There was also no indication of whether the move was temporary or related to the lockdown of Shanghai, the nation’s onshore financial capital. A spokesperson for CFETS — which is affiliated with China’s central bank and compiles data on the so-called interbank market — didn’t respond to a request for comment.”