The annual National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) endgame is upon us again. If left to linger until after Thanksgiving, prospects for the successful passage of the defense authorization bill usually become dimmer and more problematic. Then somehow the House and Senate Armed Services Committees (HASC and SASC) are able to pull a rabbit out of a hat and get the bill over the goal line. This December could be different as the risks to the bill are mounting. A little bit of magic might be needed again.    

The biggest threat to the NDAA so far has been the lackadaisical approach to defense matters that the Senate majority leader has shown for the last two years. With no time set aside for debate and action, national security issues fester and become ever more politically difficult to address. Then there are the non-defense issues that can threaten the bill at any moment, such as current rumblings about taking the bill hostage over potential culture war issues enveloping the Pentagon. Another manifestation of this trend is the absolutely horrible idea of trying to jam a debt ceiling increase into the bill. Any threatened delay could have a rippling effect when there are so many other priorities competing for limited floor time in the last few weeks of the 116th Congress. 

This year, it didn’t really have to be this hard. While the House passed its version of the NDAA in July, Senator Schumer couldn’t be bothered to bring up the Senate bill approved by SASC in June. After several months of inaction while the Democrats relentlessly focused on confirming judges, those waiting for the Senate to take up the NDAA on the floor in November, debate amendments, pass a bill, and send it to conference with the House were disappointed yet again. Those most frustrated must be the members on both sides who filed more than 900 amendments to the bill. The pent-up demand for a chance for regular order to reappear on the Senate floor is overwhelming, but unfortunately Senate leadership is still not willing to give its membership a chance to debate issues. 

As a result, we are now witnessing a determined end-around of the legislative process for the NDAA to merely survive as it has for the last 61 years of being enacted annually into law. With no Senate floor time available and the clock ticking, HASC and SASC members and staff have been “pre-conferencing” a solution acceptable to both sides. This package will include adjudicating the House-passed version and the SASC bill that never passed the Senate. The goal is to achieve a deal as soon as possible to allow votes on final passage to take place before the end of the Congress.

This plan was then seemingly put at risk by the potential new Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy, who stated he wanted Congress to hold the NDAA over until next year to remove “woke-ism” in the defense bill. That approach, though, was immediately undermined by statements from HASC and SASC leadership (although HASC ranking member Rogers had to subsequently revert to a “no comment” on the issue). HASC Chairman Adam Smith rightly warned the House minority leader on the ramifications of delaying the NDAA: “You are damaging the United States military every day past October 1st that you don’t get it done, and certainly more so every day past January [1st].”  

There are several possible outcomes that could lead to a delayed or much smaller NDAA in this or the next Congress. While not out of the woods yet, the likeliest scenario though is the HASC and SASC will quickly conclude their negotiations as early as this week and the NDAA is brought to the floor soon afterwards. Needed Senate action on already agreed-upon text should be minimal and there should be enough votes in the House to pass the bill before the end of 2022, unless extraneous or new issues are allowed to sidetrack the bill. 

Still, with the House minority leader’s anti-woke broadside there is the beginnings of a narrative that differences in values and beliefs on non-core defense issues might fracture bipartisan support for future defense legislation. The gauntlet has been thrown. Look for the culture wars and issues like access to abortion services by military members and their families to be fought out over next year’s 2023 NDAA. Whether this will potentially threaten the viability of the last annually passed authorization bill depends on the ability of the new Congress to effectively debate issues and negotiate necessary compromises. That is the source of the magic that needs to not run out if the NDAA can continue on its remarkable six-decade-plus run. 

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