The housing market continues to be hot in most of the country, but there are signs that the party may be coming to an end. To help better understand what the latest data means for the industry, HousingWire Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami answered questions about what it all means. The Q&A was hosted in the HW+ Slack channel, which is exclusively available to members. To join the next Q&A, you can join HW+ here.
Looking at the last few weeks, Mohtashami has covered a range of topics. From putting context around housing starts to explaining how housing data will moderate, it’s safe to say that there was a lot to cover.
The following Q&A has been lightly edited for length and clarity.
HousingWire: To begin, you mentioned how the home-price growth is not going great. Could you elaborate on why that is? How would that affect your predictions for 2022?
Logan Mohtashami: Of course! My biggest concern in 2021 was that home prices would take off in an unhealthy way, even after what happened in 2020. Since I didn’t believe in the Forbearance Crash Bro premise, this was the number one concern.
My home price model for the years 2020-2024, which is a big part of all my economic work, was that as long as we got only 23% peak growth in these five years, we will be fine. However, we have already pushed above that in 2 years. This is still my most significant concern for 2022 because total inventory levels haven’t reached my 1.52 million level, which I believe will take away the bidding wars and bring a B&B market — Boring and Balanced.
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