By Daniel Lyons

Last month, Richard Branson and Jeff Bezos became the first two private citizens to go to space on rockets built by their own companies — Virgin Galactic and Blue Origin, respectively. Back on Earth, this landmark achievement was largely met with derision, reflected in Rep. Tulsi Gabbard’s (D-HI) tongue-in-cheek plea that Bezos “please stay up there.” Many felt that in the midst of a pandemic, a space race among some of the world’s richest men was a hedonistic waste of resources.

This knee-jerk reaction is shortsighted. The new space race
represents far more than a billionaire vanity project. And while it’s unclear
which titan will win, it’s obvious who will ultimately benefit: mankind.

Private stakes

Though seemingly out of the blue, last month’s space flights
were the latest chapter in a decades-long rivalry. In 2004, Scaled Composites
(backed by Microsoft cofounder Paul Allen) won the $10
million Ansari X Prize for the first nongovernmental entity to launch a
reusable vehicle into space. As intended, the prize jump-started a competition
among private firms, including Virgin Galactic, Blue Origin, and Elon Musk’s
SpaceX, each of which has invested many years and billions of dollars into
developing more efficient methods of reaching space.

Importantly, these projects are not simply interstellar hot rods for billionaires with money to burn. Like any good businessman, Branson, Bezos, and Musk hope to profit. Virgin Galactic wants to exploit the nascent market for space tourism, which could be worth $2.5 billion by 2031. Blue Origin and SpaceX, meanwhile, are competing vigorously for lucrative government contracts, such as servicing the International Space Station and building NASA’s lunar lander.

Public benefits

These private gains are likely to be dwarfed by the public benefits facilitated by this new space race. As Forbes’ Charles Beames and Reason’s Liz Wolfe note, the original space race sparked technological breakthroughs that improved our lives beyond mere lunar travel — including advances in computer science (e.g., the integrated circuit), aerodynamics (resulting in more fuel-efficient vehicles), and materials science (e.g., polymers used in modern hip replacements). NASA dedicated an entire website to commercial products originating in agency discoveries.

The new space race is likely to generate a similar
multiplier effect. These companies have already dramatically reduced space launch payload costs (hat tip to Alec
Stapp). From 1970–2000, launch costs to low-Earth orbit (LEO) were mostly
stagnant, averaging approximately $18,500/kilogram (kg). But by developing
better reusable launch technology, SpaceX has reduced this cost by over 90
percent: Per the figure below, the company’s Falcon Heavy can get payloads to
space for $1500/kg.

This breakthrough in launch costs fundamentally alters the
economics of space development and could unlock numerous other revolutionary
advances. For example:

• Satellite internet. Lower launch costs have already allowed SpaceX to deploy Starlink, a network of over 1600 LEO satellites (and growing) to provide rural broadband access without the latency and bandwidth problems that plague traditional satellite offerings. Amazon is developing a rival offering, Kuiper, to go head-to-head against Starlink.

• Space-based solar power. Solar power from space has long been a dream of many entrepreneurs (including the California Institute of Technology and Northrop Grumman). Currently, 55–60 percent of solar energy is lost in Earth’s atmosphere. A space-based system would capture that sunlight before it reaches the atmosphere and convert it to microwave energy for transmission to Earth. Lowered launch costs can reduce one of the most significant obstacles to realizing this potential.

• Near-Earth asteroid mining. Near-Earth asteroids contain untapped mineral reserves, potentially worth trillions of dollars. While industrial mining operations likely remain several decades away, reduced launch costs help improve the plausibility of one day achieving this dream.

Of course, innovation is unpredictable. The writers of
1985’s “Back to the Future” would be surprised that we still don’t have flying
cars — and equally surprised that we carry supercomputers capable of global
video communication in our pockets. But while the vector of development is hard
to discern ex ante, its catalysts are readily identifiable. Throughout history,
we’ve relied on entrepreneurs willing to risk capital to advance the
technological frontier. It’s unlikely that Branson, Bezos, and Musk will all
excel in their quests to conquer space. But we should be grateful for their
willingness to do so and for knowledge we will gain and put to use as a result
of their efforts.

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