Growing Price Cuts Are A Sign That Sellers Are Getting The ‘It’s NOW Different’ Message

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Foreclosure activity in North Texas has been steadily climbing since the end of pandemic-related federal restrictions last year. ‘In the past, when the market was red hot and someone just filed for foreclosure, you could sell your house in a day,’ said Curtis Roddy, chief operating officer of Foreclosure Listing Service. ‘Now, with properties sitting on the market for 20 or 30 days before they get an offer, it’s not as easy to sell a property before it goes into foreclosure. While there’s still a lot of equity in some of these houses, we’re just not seeing people being able to sell them before the auction as quickly.’”

“In the first eight months of 2022, 4,740 homes have been filed for foreclosure in the major North Texas counties. That’s almost triple the number of filings than during the first eight months of 2021, when a federal moratorium on foreclosures was still in effect for most of the year.”

“There are a lot of abandoned homes in Lee County — homes we could use right now in southwest Florida as we navigate the housing crisis. In one Cape Coral neighborhood, neighbors are dealing with two homes that have been sitting vacant for at least three years. The homes are off of Northwest 33rd Place. One neighbor lives right next door to one. ‘It’s been like this with boards and garbage,’ said Tony Allen. ‘The weeds up to the windows. Rats were going through my backyard.’”

“In just six months, Sam Brinton, a real estate agent in Salt Lake City, Utah, has witnessed a complete reversal in buyer sentiment. ‘It’s a night and day difference,’ he says. ‘Many buyers are sitting on the sidelines because the market has cooled down so much. Last year, the market forces pushed you into a home and pushed you into doing it sooner than you wanted . It was like ‘now, now, now high, high, high,’ says Brinton. ‘Whereas now the market forces are pulling you away.’ In Salt Lake City 56% of homes for sale had a price drop in July. Nearly 70% of homes for sale in Boise, Idaho, had a price drop in July, the highest share of the 97 metros, according to Redfin.”

“Nearly 70% of home sellers in Boise, Idaho cut the asking price on their house in July, Redfin reports; a remarkable turn for the once-hot real estate market.Nationwide, the number was 32% — up from 27% in July 2019. This is just the latest indication that the pandemic housing boom is going bust, as higher mortgage rates chill demand for homes.The median listing price for a home in Boise fell $30,000 to $613,000 in July from the prior month, according to Zillow. But prices are still, as Crazy Eddie was famous for yelling, ‘Insane:’ In July 2019, the median list price for a home there was $381,000.”

“While other places in the country might be seeing somewhat of a housing crash, it’s not the case in the Inland Northwest. However, local realtors say the housing market is cooling off after a boom over the last couple of years. There are currently about 1,000 houses on the market in Spokane. That’s a huge increase compared to last year when the Spokane Association of Realtors says they probably saw 300 on the market. ‘Part of that is because of institutional buyers that are going and buying–because the real estate market was pistol hot a couple years ago or last couple of years. And now it’s going to get back to ho-hum and then you’re going to see the money go somewhere else,’ said Rob Higgins, CEO of the Spokane Association of Realtors.”

“The median price of an existing house in the city slid 3.9 percent last month to settle at $365,000, while that of a new home in Bakersfield decreased 5.3 percent to reach $447,500, according to local appraiser Gary Crabtree. Statewide, the existing median was reported to be off 3.5 percent at $833,910. ‘The numbers still look really, really good to me,’ said President Anna Albiar of the Bakersfield Association of Realtors. ‘I think it’s healthier that you have buyers and there’s a little more inventory for them to choose from. We’ve been asking for it,’ she added. ‘Now that we’ve got it, we shouldn’t be lamenting it.’”

“Home Partners of America, the single-family landlord owned by Blackstone Inc., will stop buying homes in 38 US cities, becoming the latest institutional investor to back away from an overheated housing market. The company, acquired by Blackstone in June 2021 for $6 billion, told customers that as of Sept. 1, it is pausing applications and property submissions in Boise, Idaho; Fresno, California; Memphis, Tennessee, and 25 other areas. It will go on hiatus in 10 additional cities on Oct. 1. Home Partners isn’t first large investor to back away from the US housing market, which reached a frenzied state during the first half of the year. Invitation Homes Inc., American Homes 4 Rent, and KKR & Co.’s My Community Homes are among landlords that have slowed purchases during a period of high home prices and rising financing costs.”

“A Connecticut estate once owned by former President Donald Trump and his late ex-wife has returned to the market — and for way less than its 2014 asking price. The approximately 6-acre waterfront estate in affluent Greenwich was asking for a tidy $54 million. Having bounced on and off the market for more than 10 years, it’s now up for sale for $29.9 million. ‘I had priced it at a very high price initially with the concept that if someone really wants it, I guess I’ll sell it,’ Robert Steinberg told the Journal. ‘But I mispriced it.’”

“After fuelling Canada‘s economy through the COVID-19 pandemic, the real estate market is showing signs of weakness as home prices fall and bidding wars dissipate. Lori Fralic calls it a ‘stalemate.’ ‘We are seeing lowball offers,’ said the Vancouver agent. ‘There’s lots of bargain hunters out there who are throwing out offers but if they don’t have to sell, a lot of sellers are saying, ‘no, sorry, not taking it.’”

“‘It’s anyone’s guess how much prices will fall,’ Sherry Cooper, chief economist at Dominion Lending Centres, said. Cooper noted home sales activity have declined very sharply in the Greater Toronto Area, the Greater Golden Horseshoe Area and in parts of British Columbia around Vancouver. ‘It’s the markets that experienced the 50 per cent increase in home prices that have seen the biggest correction, and that’s what you’d expect because those are the most expensive homes in Canada with the largest outstanding mortgages.’”

“House price discounts are back as sellers concede that the property market has passed its peak. Back in March, the share of agents reporting that most of their listings sold below asking price was just 15pc, according to Propertymark, a trade body. By July, this had more than doubled to 36pc. John Andrews, of Doolittle & Dalley estate agents in Worcestershire, said: ‘Until three or four months ago, we were seeing properties go for 10pc, 15pc, or 20pc above asking price. Since then we have seen the market ease back, and we have not been getting the same volume of inquiries. In the past month or so, we have been selling properties at asking price, or close to it.’”

“When Rosie Wood, 29, and her husband started looking for their first home earlier this year, they were often advised by estate agents to offer over asking price. ‘We were looking at homes at the £325,000 mark and we were being told that the sellers were looking for £330,000 or £340,000 – £15,000 over asking,’ Mrs Wood said. ‘I think they wanted a bidding war, but it is just not happening in London,’ she said. Instead, the Woods negotiated a £6,250 discount.”

“Some of China‘s state-backed financial institutions are pushing back on Beijing’s calls to support the embattled property sector due to concerns about the impact of such exposure on their balance sheets, seven people with knowledge of the matter said. ‘We can’t afford riding out the volatility before maturity. It will mess up our books,’ said a credit analyst with a Shanghai-based and state-backed asset manager, talking about interest in new bonds from developers. ‘Analysis does not work any more, because pessimism has grabbed the market … anything related to property is a no-go,’ said the credit analyst, who declined to be identified as they are not allowed to speak to the media.”

“Californians say it’s the worst time to sell a home in 17 months, a key factor behind a dramatic slowdown in homebuying. The poll results help define the housing market’s quickly deflating excitement. Is it a good time to sell? Well, 60% of Californians polled said ‘yes’ in July, down from 74% back in the feeding frenzy days of last December. On the other side of the coin, 16% said it was a good time to buy — down from 22% at the end of 2021. Back in February 2021 — 17 months ago — 60% also said it was a good time to sell.”

“And it’s no coincidence that historically low rates were followed by 28% saying it was a ‘good time to buy’ in February 2021. That’s a level of buying zeal that hasn’t been topped since. Fast forward to the summer of 2022. This same 60% selling optimism is part of a downswing. But the good-time-to-buy crowd isn’t biting. The poll’s buying enthusiasts are roughly half the size of February 2021.”

“So is it any surprise why prices are falling? Yes, falling. California’s $833,910 median sales price for a house in July was off 7% from May’s all-time high — but still up 37% in three years. Southern California’s $808,000 median was off 4% from its peak but  41% above 2019. And the Bay Area’s $1.3 million price was 16% from its top but 37% above 2019.”

“The question mark now is how sellers react to a sudden dearth of demand despite industry insiders’ insistence that ‘it was different’ this time. Remember the promised wave of ownership wannabees ready to pounce on any buying opportunity? Growing price cuts on listings is a sign that sellers are getting the ‘it’s NOW different’ message.”