For The Time Being, The Premium Is Not Being Realized

A report from the Boston Globe in Massachusetts. “Greater Boston Association of Realtors noted that within the City of Boston, which accounts for about one-third of the region’s condo market, sales were up just 1 percent and the median price fell 6.9 percent, to $642,500. The number of listings in Boston was up 51 percent compared with October of last year. ‘It’s a strong sellers’ market everywhere except the downtown Boston condo market,’ said Jason Gell,president of GBAR.”

From Mansion Global. “Singer-songwriter Paul Simon has shaved $2 million off the price of his New Canaan, Connecticut, property, which is now asking $11.9 million. The new price reduction goes to show the surge in home sales across southern Connecticut in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic hasn’t helped sellers and price segments uniformly. At the new price, Mr. Simon is preparing for a loss on the home of more than $4 million. He bought the property in 2002 for $16.5 million, according to property records.”

The UTD Mercury in Texas. “In response to rapid student population growth and a shortage of on-campus housing, two new apartment complexes have been proposed for development just north of campus. The proposal was met with some disapproval from the community. According to the minutes from the Oct. 20 City Plan Commission public hearing, developer of Northside Brent Miller opposed the new apartments due to what he termed an over-supply of student housing. Miller said that Northside’s Phase 3 is currently at 62% occupancy, while Phase 4 is projected to be 59% leased when it opens for the fall 2021 semester.”

The Enterprise Record in California. “With a higher supply of apartments currently being built, it is uncertain if these homes can begin to narrow the housing gap that faces Butte County. ‘There’s so much inventory in the student purposed housing market,’ said Chico State’s Director of Off Campus University Housing Dan Herbert. Herbert agreed with such a low inventory of lower end complexes and so many being marketed as ‘luxury,’ it will be interesting to see if they fill up. And, he has the theory that so many higher-priced new units may actually drive down the rents on the city’s older housing.”

“‘It will be hard to believe we can handle the capacity for all these units,’ Herbert said. ‘Supply and demand will kick in. Those older properties will have to lower rents to attract or maintain their current tenants.’”

From Sonoma News in California. “Much has been made of the ‘California Exodus,’ with people leaving the state in increasing numbers to start over again in perceived greener pastures. Wildfires. Cost of living. Taxes. Politics. The reasons to go are as varied as the people leaving themselves. Gary Nelson, 83, moved to Sonoma in 1978 and for 42 years called Sonoma Valley home. But last January Nelson and his wife decamped for Austin, Texas, pushed — primarily, he said — by California’s left-leaning politics.”

“‘It got to the point where it was very uncomfortable to express myself,’ said Nelson, who sits on the board of advisors for Sonoma Media Investments, which publishes the Index-Tribune.”

“Patty Scheel has already relocated, trading her small house on Second Street East for a place 10 minutes outside of downtown Dallas. Her children live there, and that was a draw, but Sonoma had begun to lose its allure for Scheel, too. ‘It just wasn’t working for me anymore,’ Scheel said.”

“The real-estate agents Scheel interviewed told her that her place would sell fast, but so far she’s had few lookers and no offers at all. ‘The transition has been very stressful because I haven’t been able to sell the house. I listed it, and then we had triple digit temperatures, heavy smoke for two weeks, and another fire.’ Scheel dropped the list price by $200,000, and is considering another price drop if the situation remains static.”

“The steady flow of departures is taxing the infrastructure of local moving companies, with more trucks heading out than into the area. ‘I’ve twice recently had U-Haul cancel my reservation for a truck,’ Sam Ridouy told the Index-Tribune. Ridouy isn’t relocating, he said, but simply needed to move things from a storage unit to his home and has found the task complicated by truck shortages. When U-Haul called to cancel his latest reservation, the agent told Ridouy that because so many people were leaving the state, they just don’t have any one-way trucks left.”

“Tom Donahue bought his Sonoma home in 2008, after ‘living in 12 states and Europe’ and acknowledges the flip side of the California Dream. ‘Northern California’s liberal politics can conflict with owning a business and remaining profitable. Property and income taxes are higher than many other states. The homeless problem and open drug use is out of control in San Francisco and Oakland. And petty misdemeanor crimes — including car break-ins and mail theft — are not a police priority due to budget cuts.’ But the list of positives remains more compelling for Donahue and his wife, and, for now at least, they plan to stay.”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “Suburban condo projects accounted for 65 per cent of all launches in the Toronto region in the third quarter of this year, according to Urbanation Inc. This is not the first time suburban condo development has surpassed the city’s but marks the widest margin on record. ‘Downtown Toronto projects are not seeing the same level of enthusiasm from buyers as they were pre-COVID,’ said Kash Pashootan, chief executive of Emblem Developments, which recently launched a 17-storey, 336-unit condo project in Mississauga. ‘For the time being, the premium that you pay for being downtown is not being realized,’ he said.”

“Meanwhile, the downtown office district is currently a ghost town. The office vacancy rate has been steadily climbing, as a sea of businesses put some of their space on the sublet market. Rental vacancies are up and rental prices are down in the city. As well, many owners of Airbnb units have put their properties on the long-term rental market or up for sale after tourism disappeared. That has increased supply in the downtown core, just as the market was being flooded with a stream of new condo units. The glut of condos has given some developers pause.”

From Bloomberg. “Millions of Americans expect to face eviction by the end of this year, adding to the suffering inflicted by the coronavirus pandemic raging across the US. About 5.8 million adults say they are somewhat to very likely to face eviction or foreclosure in the next two months, according to a survey completed November 9 by the US Census Bureau. That accounts for a third of the 17.8 million adults in households that are behind on rent or mortgage payments.”

“The CARES Act, signed into law last March, allows homeowners to pause mortgage payments for up to a year if they experience hardship as a result of the pandemic. Borrowers who signed up at the start of the program could face foreclosure by March.”

“The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s nationwide temporary suspension on evictions — aimed at stemming the spread of coronavirus — is slated to end December 31. The timing is far from ideal given millions of people are also set to lose their unemployment benefits at year-end without an extension from Congress.”

“Roughly half of households not current on their rent or mortgage payments in Arkansas, Florida, and Nevada think there’s a ‘strong chance’ of eviction by early January. This equates to more than 750,000 homes where an eviction is the biggest worry, according to the survey. By metro area, the threat of eviction is most pressing in New York City, Houston, and Atlanta.”