During Barack Obama’s eight years in office, the Republicans picked up more than 900 state legislative seats. One of Obama’s first meetings of his post-presidency was with Eric Holder, and they charted a plan to claw back a decade’s worth of GOP gains. With considerable funding and on-the-ground efforts, that work is paying dividends. In November, the Democrats gained control of four state legislative chambers: the Michigan House and Senate, the Minnesota Senate, and the Pennsylvania House. New trifectas in Michigan and Minnesota will provide an opportunity for Democrats to pursue ambitious agendas.
When the Michigan legislature gaveled in two weeks ago, Democrats were met with an unfamiliar feeling: full legislative power. Armed with their first trifecta in four decades, Michigan Democrats have already announced plans to expand gay and transgender anti-discrimination law, raise the minimum wage, and repeal the controversial right-to-work law passed a decade ago. But with just the narrowest of majorities, there is reason to temper expectations. Democrats hold 56 of 110 House seats and 20 of 38 Senate seats—only a couple defections would grind legislation to a halt.
All eyes will be on the six “crossover” members of the House: the members whose district voted for the presidential candidate of the opposite party. As the map below illustrates, four Democratic members won election in Trump-won districts and two Republicans in Biden-won districts. The districts—and their ticket-splitting tendencies—are emblematic of Michigan’s shifting political coalitions. Both Biden-Republicans represent portions of wealthy, suburban Oakland County. Though it has zoomed leftwards at the federal level, the county remains willing to elect local Republicans.
Just to the east, Macomb County tells the other half of the story. In 1985, Democratic pollster and strategist Stan Greenberg brought Macomb County to political prominence with his 1986 study of Macomb’s Reagan Democrats. Decade’s later voters here continue to play an important role in state politics. Though Barack Obama twice carried the poorer, working-class county, Donald Trump won Macomb by eight points in 2020. Nevertheless, Democrats carried the 61st District (Trump +0.4) and the 58th District (Trump +5.6) in northern Macomb. These representatives of both parties defied polarization in 2022, but down-ballot lag eventually catches all. As the crossover members cast votes in Lansing, their precarious electoral prospects will be top of mind. With such a narrowly divided chamber, long-awaited liberal legislative successes will require a fully unified party. Democratic leaders should not take for granted the support of their crossover members—and actively seek out agreement with Biden-district Republicans.
As with their Michigan compatriots, Minnesota Democrats captured a trifecta by the smallest of margins, winning 34 state Senate seats to Republican’s 33. The majority-winning race in the 41st Senate District was decided by just 321 votes. Just days after the election, Governor Tim Walz announced marijuana legalization as a priority for Democratic legislators. Polling suggests legalization is popular, but the policy change is electorally motivated as well.
Minnesota’s Legalize Marijuana Now Party (LMN) routinely captures around 5 percent in congressional and legislative races. The party—as its name puts plainly—focuses on one issue and, many suspect, draws votes away from Democratic candidates. In 2020, Rep. Angie Craig nearly lost her suburban Minneapolis district when the LMN candidate (who had actually passed away prior to the election) received 5.8 percent of the vote. After Craig’s narrow reelection, a voicemail emerged suggesting Republicans paid the LMN candidate to run against Craig. The same year, the LMN cost Democrats control of the state Senate. An incumbent Democrat lost by four points in a race where the LMN candidate got 7 percent.
Each time Democrats pushed for legalization, Republicans, well aware of the LMN’s electoral benefit, stymied the efforts. However, after exceeding expectations in 2022, Democrats finally appear poised to legalize, all but eliminating the need for a Legalize Marijuana Now Party. It is likely the party will continue to draw a few protest votes, but its vote shares will shrink considerably if the legislation passes—to the great benefit of Minnesota Democrats. Of course, just as in Michigan, Democratic legislators will need to be in lockstep to pass any legislation.
Many a piece has been written about the legislative impacts of new Democratic trifectas. No doubt, the potential for progressive legislation in Michigan and Minnesota is greater than at any point in decades. But the political realities of these trifectas are essential to understand as well. The Democratic majorities are incredibly slim. Whether crossover members in Michigan or LMN candidates in Minnesota, political calculations are a vital ingredient in any policy conversation.
The post Elections and Demography: The Politics of New Democratic Trifectas appeared first on American Enterprise Institute – AEI.