In the last edition of Elections and Demography, we argued new Democratic trifectas in Minnesota and Michigan would enable Democrats to pursue ambitious legislative agendas. We saw an early result of these victories last week when Minnesota Governor Tim Walz signed legislation enshrining abortion rights.
This week we turn to the three gubernatorial contests of 2023—where Republicans are a good bet to pick up one, if not two, trifectas. In Mississippi, Republican Tate Reeves is a strong favorite to win reelection and preserve the GOP trifecta, despite a recent Siena College poll showing a majority of voters would prefer a new governor. Democrats are optimistic that Brandon Presley, a public service commissioner and distant relative of Elvis, can keep the race close. Presley’s past electoral performance in his rural northern district is impressive, but Mississippi’s ruby-red hue will be near impossible to overcome.
Louisiana’s open race represents the most promising gubernatorial opportunity for the GOP. Two-term Democratic incumbent John Bel Edwards is term limited and a number of Republicans have jumped into the. Though the state party endorsed—controversially—Attorney General Jeff Landry in November, State Treasurer John Schroder has also announced his candidacy, and several other well-known Republicans are considering campaigns as well. Regardless of the eventual Republican candidate, the GOP should be a strong favorite in a state that has continued to slip out of reach for Democrats.
Though Donald Trump won Kentucky by 26 points in 2020, the Bluegrass State is home to 2023’s most intriguing gubernatorial contest. Four years ago, Democrat Andy Beshear pulled off a surprise victory over Republican Matt Bevin. Despite a quietly successful first term, reelection will prove difficult in solidly red state.
As in Louisiana, prominent Kentucky Republicans are chomping at the bit to challenge Beshear. Nearly every statewide GOP officeholder has declared their candidacy, including Attorney General Daniel Cameron, Agricultural Commissioner Ryan Quarles, and State Auditor Mike Harmon. Though Cameron—protégé of Mitch McConnell—has led in the limited primary polling, former Ambassador to the UN Kelly Craft has paced the field in fundraising. Endorsements, too, have been fractured: Trump endorsed Cameron, while Rep. James Comer, now the chair of the House Oversight Committee, threw his support behind Craft.
As Republicans scrap prior to the May primary, Beshear is building a massive war chest. As of January, he has more than $7 million on hand, much more than any potential general election opponent. His initial fundraising advantage aside, Beshear has several reasons to be optimistic about reelection. According to the AP/NORC voter survey from November’s midterms, a shocking 64 percent of Kentuckians approve of Beshear’s job performance. Moreover, 56 percent of midterm voters felt his COVID-19 response was “about right”—an important indicator as Republicans gear up to attack him over school and church closures in 2020.
Kentucky’s rejection of a proposed constitutional amendment to outlaw abortion also offers hope for Beshear. Largely expected to pass in November, Amendment 2 failed by 4.5 points thanks to huge “no” margins in and around Louisville and Lexington, Kentucky’s two biggest cities. The map below compares Beshear’s 2019 two-party vote share with the vote share received by “no” on Amendment 2 three years later.
The coalitional differences are obvious. Beshear dramatically outran the more pro-choice vote in ancestrally Democratic Eastern Kentucky. These coal counties were reliably blue through Bill Clinton’s presidency, but socially conservative white working-class voters have dramatically moved away from Democrats. Take Elliott County—which voted for Obama by 26 points in 2008, but Trump by 50 in 2020. Andy Beshear turned back the clock and won Elliott by 20 points in 2019, outrunning the later abortion amendment by nearly 40 points.
Meanwhile, the “no” vote outran Beshear considerably in urban and suburban counties. In Oldham and Henry Counties, both north of Louisville, “no” outperformed Beshear by upwards of 20 points. Thousands of voters who supported Bevin in 2019 voted against outlawing abortion three years later. Republicans must hope these voters are solidly red in 2023. If Beshear hopes to deprive Republicans of a trifecta in Kentucky, he will need to retain much of his rural white working-class support. Nevertheless, the 2022 abortion vote suggests he can triage some of these voters if he improves in the most populous counties. To weave together Democratic coalitions of wildly different political eras is no small undertaking. Beshear’s high approval rating, however, suggests he is up to the task.
2023 is an election year ripe with opportunity for Republicans. Mississippi could prove too close for comfort, but Republicans will almost certainly hold their trifecta. In Louisiana, the eventual Republican nominee should easily capture the governor’s mansion. Kentucky, however, remains a tossup. Will Andy Beshear beat the odds once again? Or will partisanship prove an insurmountable obstacle?
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