This is the inaugural issue of an AEIdeas series that will focus on elections and demographic voting patterns. During the 2022 campaign, we will look weekly at demographic subgroup averages from a month of polls. While Democrats have pulled ahead on the generic ballot, Republicans will be seeking to capitalize on areas of demographic weakness for Democrats come Election Day. This unique snapshot will provide a far better sense than any individual poll of key groups’ current preferences and how they are moving as we approach November 8th.
Generic Ballot Averages*
Aug. 9–Sep. 9
| Dem. | Rep. | Dem-Rep Margin | Number of Polls | ||
| Overall | 44.9% | 42.4% | 2.5 | 17 | |
| Ethnicity | White | 39.7 | 50.2 | -10.5 | 17 |
| Hispanic | 51.4 | 32.2 | 19.2 | 13 | |
| Black | 70.9 | 13.5 | 57.4 | 15 | |
| Education | White College | 53.2 | 40.4 | 12.8 | 5 |
| White No College | 30.2 | 59.0 | -28.8 | 5 | |
| College | 51.9 | 39.1 | 12.8 | 6 | |
| No College | 42.6 | 46.6 | -4.0 | 6 | |
| Gender | Male | 42.2 | 45.8 | -3.6 | 14 |
| Female | 48.3 | 37.8 | 10.5 | 14 | |
| Income | <$50k | 44.3 | 38.3 | 6.0 | 9 |
| $50-100k | 45.0 | 42.7 | 2.2 | 6 | |
| $100k+ | 48.5 | 42.3 | 6.2 | 6 |
Key Findings
- The average Hispanic advantage for the Democrats in the last month is around 19 points. This is a further decline from the Democrats’ relatively low 25-point advantage among this group in the 2020 Presidential election and a big decline from their 35-point advantage in the 2018 midterm. The trend in the last month among Hispanics has also been negative for the Democrats, around a 2-point decline.
- The data indicate a yawning 42-point gap in the last month between the Democrats’ White college and White non-college support. The Democrats are carrying White college voters by 13 points while losing White non-college voters by 29. The analogous gap in 2018 was 27 points and in 2020, 33 points.
- In the last month, Democrats’ margin among White college voters increased by 6 points, while their deficit worsened by 5 points among White non-college voters. White non-college voters remain more undecided about their 2022 vote choice than their college-educated counterparts.
- Some polls show an astounding divergence between Democratic support among White college and non-college voters. The most recent Marist/NPR/PBS poll has Democrats carrying white college voters by 63-32 while losing White non-college voters by 60-31.
- Women support Democrats by 10.5 points, a margin 2.5 points lower than Joe Biden’s in 2020. This lagging support complicates arguments that women will vote for Democrats at higher margins because of the Dobbs decision.
- In a possible positive sign for Democrats, Black and Hispanic voters, who are generally more disposed to the party, are significantly more undecided than White voters. The averages (not shown here) suggest 15.6 percent of Black voters and 16.4 percent of Hispanic voters do not yet know for whom they will vote, compared to only 10.2 percent of White voters.
Demographic Margin Trends
| Dem. | Rep. | Margin change from last week |
Margin change from last month |
|
| Overall | 44.9% | 42.4% | 0.2 | 1.5 |
| White | 39.7 | 50.2 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Hispanic | 51.4 | 32.2 | -0.4 | -1.6 |
| Black | 70.9 | 13.5 | 2.8 | -1.6 |
| White College | 53.2 | 40.4 | 2.6 | 6.2 |
| White No College | 30.2 | 59.0 | -0.8 | -5.4 |
| College | 51.9 | 39.1 | 6.0 | 5.2 |
| No College | 42.6 | 46.6 | -3.9 | -3.6 |
| Male | 42.2 | 45.8 | -0.3 | 0.6 |
| Female | 48.3 | 37.8 | 0.2 | 1.7 |
| <$50k | 44.3 | 38.3 | -5.6 | -2.4 |
| $50-100k | 45.0 | 42.7 | 3.3 | 4.7 |
| $100k+ | 48.5 | 42.3 | -0.2 | 0.9 |
Previous election data is drawn from Catalist crosstab estimates. Catalist is a Democratic data analytics organization.
*How we did this: This month-long average is a compilation of online and live caller polls that release crosstabs. Internal and explicitly partisan polls are excluded. This edition averages polls from the Economist/YouGov, Quinnipiac University, Morning Consult/Politico, CBS News, Emerson, The Wall Street Journal, Rasmussen, Echelon Insights, Marist College/NPR/PBS NewsHour, and Fox News.
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