Chicagoans are used to political brawls and the April 4 mayoral runoff election won’t be any exception. Last Tuesday, incumbent Lori Lightfoot lost her reelection bid, garnering just 17 percent of the vote in a field split along demographic and ideological lines. Advancing to the runoff are Paul Vallas and Brandon Johnson. The two men represent completely different wings of the Democratic Party: Vallas, a white former Chicago schools chief, occupied the moderate lane in the primary, while Johnson, a black Cook County commissioner, is an unabashed progressive. Their impending matchup has elevated to the national stage Democrats’ weakness on public safety. Under ferocious attacks from Republicans, the party faces an epic test in the Windy City. Will the tough-on-crime moderate steer Democrats back to the center on crime? Or will the progressive wing prove too large to overcome?

Vallas enters the runoff with a head start. He received 33.2 percent of the primary vote, compared to Johnson’s 21.1 – good for a 65,000 vote advantage. But with almost 45 percent of the primary vote up for grabs, the race is still anyone’s game. Vallas’s primary advantage was built in the northwest, home to Chicago’s working-class white neighborhoods. In the Northwest’s Ward 41, which includes O’Hare Airport, Vallas received 72 percent of the primary vote. No other candidate broke 10 percent. Even beyond Ward 41, Vallas routinely earned a huge chunk of the vote in northwestern precincts, buoyed by support from Polish and Ukrainian neighborhoods. Ecological inference estimates from Sean Trende and Split Ticket suggest Vallas won an outright majority of white voters citywide – an impressive feat in a divided primary.

Vallas also ran first in Asian neighborhoods, consistent with the recent rightward drift of the Asian vote across the country. But the Asian vote is still relatively small so limiting bleeding from his white base will be key to Vallas’ hopes of a runoff victory.

Johnson, meanwhile, won the second spot in the runoff with a strong base of support in the city’s racially and ethnically diverse northeast, where progressive whites tend to be concentrated – along with middling support from the South Side. The precincts around the University of Chicago also provided a tranche of votes for Johnson. According to estimates, he was the clear second choice overall for white voters, though he did slightly better with wealthier whites in Lincoln Park and Lake View than in the white working-class neighborhoods of the northwest.

If both men to hold onto their bases, the coalitions of defeated candidates – Lightfoot, Congressman Chuy Garcia, and perennial candidate Willie Wilson – offer more insight to the path forward. Lightfoot was unfriendly to the top two during the primary, referring to Vallas as someone who was “playing footsie with the far right wing” and Johnson as a “false prophet” who wants to raise taxes and “cut your police.” Given her contentious defeat, Lightfoot is not guaranteed to endorse in the runoff, but her base of support on the South Side is a crucial variable.

With Lightfoot and Wilson eliminated, a majority of Chicago’s black voters are likely searching for a new candidate. In a city where racial polarization often plays a dominant role, Johnson would appear to be the immediate beneficiary, but his incredibly progressive stances on policing complicate the picture. Johnson remains vague on past support for the “Defund the Police” movement and has said he would not fill police job postings. In black neighborhoods facing surging crime, Vallas’s positions may prove more palatable.

After Rep. Chuy Garcia was eliminated, a large chunk of the Hispanic vote is up for grabs. Garcia, who represents IL-4 in Congress, won many of the majority-Hispanic wards that overlap with his district. Interestingly, Vallas was the clear second-place candidate in these wards, suggesting his level of Latino support could shoot up in April. If Garcia, a progressive himself, endorses Johnson, the battle for the Latino vote will grow considerably more intense.

As with most off-year elections, differential turnout should be exceptionally important. Both candidates already have strong support from high-turnout areas and turnout will likely increase in these wards. But in low-turnout black wards, turnout could make or break the race. Johnson’s chances hinge on convincing black voters to turnout at equal or greater rates, even though for many of these voters their top two candidates have been eliminated. If many Lightfoot voters stay home, Vallas is the probable beneficiary.

With such complicated ideological and demographic currents at play, the race for mayor remains up in the air less than a month before election day. A Johnson win would represent – at least in this diverse, Democratic city – a renewed commitment to progressive policing priorities. Conversely, a Vallas victory would highlight Democrats’ problems with their recent approach to crime — and could portend future policy moderation.

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