Election Day
2022 election is 300 days away, and here are some things we are watching.
Attached also is an overview of the Senate and Governor’s contests.

Presidential approval: As Gallup has reported, presidents since Harry Truman with an approval rating below 50 percent have lost, on average, 37 House seats in midterms. For presidents above 50 percent, the average loss is 14 seats. Today, Joe Biden’s approval rating stands at 43 percent. There have only been three times since the Civil War that the party controlling the White House gained seats in the first midterm.

Redistricting: At AEI’s November 2021 Election Watch, AEI Senior Fellow John Fortier predicted, contrary to much overheated commentary, that redistricting would be pretty much a wash. He acknowledged the GOP had a substantial advantage in drawing maps in 2010, but that he didn’t expect a repeat of that situation. John is in good company. In his latest 2022 House overview for the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, ace election watcher David Wasserman’s column is headlined, “Still a GOP Advantage, but Redistricting Looks Like a Wash.” Wasserman is basing his conclusions on the fact that lines are either complete or awaiting certification “in 34 states totaling 293 seats — more than two-thirds of the House.”

Retirements: Twenty-six Democrats and 12 Republicans have announced their retirement from the House. Those numbers are expected to grow, and they make an already difficult situation for the party controlling the White House more difficult still. This could be a sign that Democrats are anticipating their own defenestration from majority rule. On the Senate side, six senators, including five Republicans and one Democrat, will be retiring this year. Two Republicans, John Thune (R-SD) and Ron Johnson (R-WI) announced that they intend to seek re-election. The Republicans only need to flip one seat to take back the Senate.

Election 2022 vote count: Several polls taken to anticipate the first anniversary of the January 6, 2021 events asked Americans of their concerns about election integrity in the 2022 election. Sixty-four percent in the new Washington Post/University of Maryland poll were very or somewhat confident that votes across the country will be counted fairly, but 36 percent were not too or not confident at all that this would be the case. Sixty-five percent were confident that all eligible citizens would have a fair opportunity to vote, while 34 percent were not. Our report for the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group found that the vast majority of Americans felt that their own vote was counted accurately in 2020. Based on several surveys, including the Voter Study Group’s own VOTER survey, very few voters experienced impediments to voting such as being told they didn’t have the correct identification (2 percent). Three percent said long voting lines caused them to leave, and separately, that they had requested a ballot through the mail, but it never arrived. Fifty-nine percent waited less than 10 minutes or not at all to vote, and 21 percent waited between ten minutes and half an hour. The debate on voting rights is heating up this week with congressional Democrats angling to force a vote on legislation very soon.

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