Since our last report 700 days before the November 5, 2024, election, Democrats have received some good news. And they needed it. As the attached update shows, Democrats hold 20 seats up in 2024 and Republicans hold just 11, immediately placing Democrats on the defensive. While old age appears less of a concern than in the past, six Democrats will be 75 years old or more next year (Carper in Delaware, Hirono in Hawaii, Warren in Massachusetts, Manchin in West Virginia, Sanders in Vermont, and Cardin in Maryland). Some of these Democrats, such as Ben Cardin, have done very little fundraising, suggesting that retirement is a distinct possibility. Mitt Romney, who will be 77 in 2024, is the only Republican is the senior category.
Furthermore, Democrats currently hold seats in three Trump-won states (Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia), while Republicans do not occupy any that voted for Biden. This trio of states has no other statewide Democrats other than the incumbent Senators. In addition, four Democrats are up in seats Biden won by less than 5 percent. In the face of these weaknesses, Democrats were thrilled when popular Montana Senator Jon Tester recently announced that he will seek reelection.
Vulnerable red-state Democrats also received some cover from President Biden when he indicated he would veto a DC crime bill that eased penalties on some serious crimes such as carjacking. The president also appears ready to toughen his border policies and recently approved an oil drilling project in the Alaskan wilderness. While his decisions outraged the left flank of the party, the measures could help shore up endangered Democrats and deflect some attention from persistent inflation concerns.
By the numbers alone, Republicans seem less vulnerable than Democrats in the early stages of the 2024 contests. It remains to be seen, however, what role Donald Trump will play in Senate contests. While the former president won the presidential preference poll at the Conservative Political Action gathering last week while basking in the adulation of supporters, many Republicans haven’t forgotten his endorsement of weak GOP candidates in 2022. If he endorses marginal candidates once again, he could help to diminish the party’s overall Senate advantage. But as our former AEI colleague Henry Olsen pointed out recently, the person who has won the CPAC presidential preference poll in a year without an incumbent has always lost.
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