Buyers Know They’re A Shrinking Pool

A report from Barron‘s. “Home buyers on the hunt in Dallas, who have been waiting for mortgage rates to drop, are finally returning to the market, says Re/Max agent Todd Luong. But it isn’t enough to make a difference overall in home sales in this North Texas metro area. Run-ups in mortgage rates, home prices, property insurance, and taxes make home ownership ‘very unaffordable right now,’ says Luong. ‘That’s a big issue.’ It wasn’t supposed to be this way. At the end of last year, Wall Street priced in five to six Federal Reserve rate cuts for 2024, which would have driven mortgage rates lower. ‘There was a certain amount of optimism,’ says Rob Dietz, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders. ‘Some of that optimism proved to be misplaced.’”

“Supply growth could soften price gains for these homes or even bring about declines in some markets, says Dietz. Once more owners list their homes, they will ‘have to do the same kind of price discovery that, quite frankly, builders did over the last two years,’ he says. Builders kept sales going by offering incentives including mortgage rate buy-downs, or price cuts. For now, both sides can be at odds over a home’s price tag. Buyers want deals that largely haven’t materialized while sellers expect the multiple offers and fast sales of the frothy years during the pandemic, says northern California-based Rainy Hake Austin, president of international brokerage The Agency. ‘You’ve got buyers who think it’s 2008, and then sellers who still think it’s 2020,’ she says.”

Sarasota Magazine in Florida. “In Sarasota County, inventory is staying on an ascending course, with 3,239 active listings, a 77.6 percent increase, leading to a 5-month supply of inventory. ‘It’s not the buyer’s market [buyers] would have hoped for right now, even though there’s a tremendous number of price decreases across all housing categories and price points,’ says David Jennings of Coldwell Banker, who specializes in single-family home sales in Sarasota’s Indian Beach-Sapphire Shores neighborhood. ‘However, those are reduced from what started out as aspirational prices seen in prior years.’ The median time to contract also extended to 43 days, up 72 percent. And during that increased time, negotiations are fierce.”

“‘If buyers can’t negotiate a competitive price, you’ll feel the wrath of their expectations, because buyers know they’re a shrinking pool,’ Jennings explains. ‘They won’t tolerate the broken irrigation system. They want to be credited at closing for deferred maintenance that may have come up during inspections. A seller has to be prepared for that.’”

“Active listings in Manatee County rose by 68.6 percent, to 2,570. Meanwhile, the townhouse and condo market in Sarasota County experienced a slight decline. The median sale price decreased by 9.1 percent, to $368,000. Inventory for townhouses and condos increased by 87.3 percent, to 2,010 active listings, resulting in 6.3 months of inventory, creating a buyer’s market. The townhouse and condos market in Manatee County experienced a notable decline, however, with closed sales dropping by 25.8 percent, to 264, and the median sale price decreasing by 5.5 percent to $361,495. It’s also a buyer’s market in Manatee, with inventory levels increasing by 88.4 percent, to 1,458 active listings, leading to a 6.3-month supply inventory. And, Jennings notes, ‘Most of the fees for condo owners have gone up considerably based on new state regulations.’”

The Review Journal in Nevada. “The public is once more invited to visit the home of the late entertainment legend Jerry Lewis. Just be ready to offer at least a million bucks, which is actually a comparatively low bid for this place. The Lewis dwelling in the historic Scotch 80s neighborhood is up for sale at an offer presentation and open house from 2 to 4 p.m. June 29. The formal opening bid is set at $999,999. The seller does have an undisclosed reserve price and has the right to reject any offer that doesn’t meet that price. Nate Strager of Luxury Estates International is the listing agent, working on behalf of owner Brumbies Capital Inc., a private lending company out of Australia. That company purchased the home from foreclosure company Nevada Trust Deed Services for about $2 million this past September. Strager listed the home for $2.5 million in January, dropping it to $1.5 million in May, but it has gone unsold. The $1 million opening price and open house offer presentation is to renew interest in the property.”

The Citizen Times in North Carolina. “There is a new proposal on the table for the former Ramada Inn in East Asheville from yet another Los Angeles-based developer. Friendship for Affordable Housing plans to transform the property into 113 units of housing for the city’s chronically homeless. The for-profit affordable housing developer has a purchase and sale agreement executed with the property’s current owner. If the story sounds familiar, it is. Three years ago, the city was under contract to purchase the two parcels, located at 148 and 150 River Ford Parkway, before abandoning plans in December 2021. It authorized the assignment of its contract to California-based for-profit developer Shangri-La Industries, which announced it would convert the property into 113 units of permanent supportive housing.”

“After months of delays, Shangri-La left town, leaving behind a slew of litigation and broken promises and facing further legal trouble in California, where the company is being sued by the state, as well as numerous lenders and contractors over unpaid bills, according to reporting from the Ventura County Star. It lost the property to foreclosure in December 2023 to lender Stormfield Capital.”

The Denver Post in Colorado. “On Monday, the Aurora City Council will cast a final vote on an ordinance that eliminates the requirement that the city provide 72-hour notice to those camping illegally before disassembling and clearing their encampment. Backers of the measure say it’s too easy for people now to temporarily move down the street before reestablishing their camp where they were. ‘In order to change behavior, we have to make it untenable to be on the street — or you are just going to stay there,’ Aurora Mayor Mike Coffman said. ‘This is going to be a more aggressive approach.’”

“It’s a basic safety measure to curtail the health hazards that go along with living outdoors, said councilman Steve Sundberg , like people ‘defecating in public view and trashing these areas.’ Wildfires fueled by unattended campfires are also a concern. ‘Should they be sleeping on the street two feet away from where traffic is going past at 50 mph?’ he said. ‘I don’t think so.’”

The Tribune Eagle. “There’s a growing problem of unhoused individuals moving into vacant properties in Casper, according to Police Chief Keith McPheeters. McPheeters approached lawmakers on the Legislature’s Joint Judiciary Committee on Tuesday, asking for state help to expedite the eviction process for unlawful residency. He said Wyoming’s growing homeless population is outpacing the availability of shelters, and many homeless people are starting to move into vacant homes. ‘The homeless population, especially in Wyoming, tends to be a little bit migratory,’ McPheeters said. ‘There’s a vast number of them that we’ve never seen before. They just showed up in their migratory travels.’”

“The Casper police chief said he wanted to be sensitive to the issue of homelessness, but added there seemed to be an underground network of individuals who can ‘sniff out’ homes left vacant by the owner. ‘They can smell it from miles away,’ he said. ‘And once they find them, they invade those properties.’ When the owner returns to their house to find dozens of people living in it, wearing their clothes and eating their food, they’ll often produce a fraudulent lease agreement to claim their residency is legal, McPheeters said. This turns into a months-long eviction process in the courts, leaving the owners in distress. Not to mention these individuals, whom McPheeters referred to as ‘squatters,’ may cause tens of thousands of dollars in property damage.”

“McPheeters said that criminal intent under these circumstances is hard to prove in court. It’s difficult to differentiate between actual intent to destroy the property and general negligence. Absentee property owners ‘just don’t give a crap anymore,’ he said, and these vacant properties become a ‘crime haven.’ This not only threatens public safety, it also prevents the city from building additional structures, including homeless shelters. ‘We’ve done pretty much everything we can, even at great expense to us,’ McPheeters said. ‘But it’s not just about Casper. I want to reiterate, this is happening across our state.’”

The Globe and Mail. “Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem said the Canadian economy appears to be on track for a soft landing where inflation falls back to the bank’s target without a major spike in unemployment. At the same time, the continuing slowdown in the labour market is hitting some groups harder than others, especially new Canadians and young people, Mr. Macklem said in a speech. ‘This is the soft-landing scenario,’ Mr. Macklem said. ‘It has always been a narrow path, and we have yet to fully stick the landing. Looking forward, the unemployment rate could rise further. … But we continue to think that we don’t need a large rise in the unemployment rate to get inflation back to the 2-per-cent target.’”

Global News in Canada.”The gunman in a Toronto office shooting that left two people dead was ‘pushed to the edge,’ his widow says, after the couple allegedly fell victim to a scam and lost their life savings. Speaking to Global News, Alisa Pogorelovsky said her husband Alan Kats was a ‘humble man’ who loved his family. They were married for more than nine years and have two children, aged 17 and six. Pogorelovsky said their lives were ‘amazing’ and ‘happy,’ but once they fell victim to an alleged scam, ‘everything changed.’ ‘He couldn’t work. He couldn’t do anything. He couldn’t concentrate. He stopped sleeping, he stopped eating,’ she said of her husband. ‘He stopped being himself. He just couldn’t take it that people can come and take your money and just leave you behind without any fears and still go to work in the same office where it’s happened and just continue doing what they continue doing.’”

“According to Pogorelovsky’s lawsuit, her family wanted to create an investment fund by releasing the equity in their home. They mortgaged it, and paid into a fund that promised a higher rate of return with investments in syndicated private mortgages. Over time, Pogorelovsky invested $850,000, $400,000 and $80,000 in three properties. She eventually started to receive some small payments, which ‘appear to have been efforts to comfort the plaintiff as to the progress of the mortgage investments,’ court documents read. ‘The plaintiff finally discovered there were no mortgages on the properties securing the plaintiff’s investments. The plaintiff hired lawyers, whose investigations into the matters turned up similarities to a number of mortgage fraud schemes allegedly organized by Arash Missaghi,’ the filing reads.”

Western Australia Today. “East coast investors raiding the Perth property market are being warned to be cautious with too many paying well above the asking price to beat the competition without regard to quality or location. Hotspotting director Terry Ryder said too many buyers were acting in haste. ‘Many will regret decisions made in haste amid the frenzy,’ he said. ‘The latest sales volumes data suggests that the Perth market has passed its peak in terms of buyer activity and is unlikely to continue leading the nation on price growth –although the low level of listings of properties for sale is partly to blame. Our new analysis shows a significant drop-off in sales across Greater Perth in the past six months. There are a number of other signals that the peak has been reached, or passed, in this market – including longer ‘days on market’ in some areas and price decline at the top end of the market.’”

From Bloomberg. “Shanghai’s luxury real estate market is a bright spot in China’s bleak property sector. It’s the only one among the country’s mega cities that’s still attracting people to put down money in an asset class that has otherwise been abandoned. In the city’s French Concession, all 75 units of Singapore-based CapitaLand Group Pte.’s the Paragon were sold online in 45 minutes. They were sold for about 20% less than two second-hand units of similar range in the neighborhood marketed by Landz Realtors.”

“‘Those who can afford such prime projects have waited for more than two years,’ said Stephanie Zhou, who has been facilitating the sales of prime real estate in Shanghai for more than two decades. ‘Some new projects were priced lower than existing ones they’ve checked during the market peak, and they see them as a bargain.’ It stands in stark contrast with other cities including Beijing, where luxury projects are failing to attract buyers.”