It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “The sale of the 851-square-foot, one-bedroom unit of the Lumina tower at 201 Folsom Street has just closed escrow with a contract price of $999,000. But as the unit was purchased for $1.2 million July of 2016, according to a review of its deed, its value has dropped 16.75 percent on an apples-to-apples basis while the Case-Shiller index for Bay Area condo values overall is up 14.1 percent over the same period of time. And the ‘median sale price’ is up as well. A signature two-bedroom on the same floor, unit #16C, traded for 1.3 percent below it 2016 price two years ago.”
“In Manhattan, median rents have dropped below $3,000 for the first time in a decade, and the borough’s rental listing inventory reached a 14-year high, according to the September 2020 Elliman Report. The situation is similar in San Francisco, which has seen the largest drop in rents in the country. On the sales side, overall inventory of homes in San Francisco has hit a two-decade high, with 31% of homes on the market in October offering price reductions. Similarly, in Manhattan, listing inventory increased by 22% and prices have dropped by 5.3% year-over-year in October.”
“‘Sellers are nervous. Those multi-million dollar units are not going out the door, and buyers have more power than they have for the last 8 to 10 years,’ said Patrick Carlisle, chief market analyst with Compass. ‘If you’re interested in a new condo, go find the property you love most and be aggressive in your negotiations.’ Zhane Dikes, a broker with The Agency in San Francisco said: ‘On the sales side, the question is, will buyers continue to stay out, and are sellers going to pull their listings or let them continue to sit? I’ve got more agents calling me asking how my listings are doing than buyers calling me at the moment.’”
“Elliot Bogod talks about the Upper West Side, New York City, NY real estate market performance in 2020: Prices of Upper West Side condos, coops, and townhouses have been reduced by many buyers in order to be attractive and to get buyers’ attention. COVID deals mostly have been happening and steeply discounted deals signed during that time. Upper West Side has tripled the number of available inventory and sellers are more negotiable than ever. Buyers are expecting discounts and getting them in many instances. Currently NYC real estate market is in the midst of the correction and everything is on sale. It’s truly a buyer’s market and buyers have a freedom of making offers, negotiate, pick while sellers are listening to the offers as never before in the previous cycle.”
“In 2018, Amazon’s HQ2 announcement jump-started the Northern Virginia housing market. The pandemic has shown that this area can’t sustain a blistering pace forever as more sellers finally enter the market. As of August 2020 (our latest available sales data), month’s supply was up 106% year-over-year. In October, Arlington County had 405 condos condos listed for sale, up 27% compared to October 2018 just before the announcement, and six times as many condo listings as in February. Adding to an uncertain future in this market, sellers who expected a massive influx of buyers looking for homes near HQ2 may find that those buyers don’t materialize.”
“There were 134 total third-quarter sales in Crozet in 2020. The average price for a detached home fell in the quarter, dropping 5% to $509,000. This drop is due in part to a higher percentage of these sales being lower cost re-sales. There were 41 attached sales in the quarter, up a third from the 31 sales in 2019. Twenty-one of these were for new construction. The average price for these new builds dropped slightly to $419,000, reflecting a 7% decrease in size. There were 20 resale properties sold in the quarter, at an average price of $312,000. The resale market will continue to face competition from new construction, especially now with Pleasant Green in full swing.”
“This week shows yet another decrease in Seattle condo inventory. The question we need to ask, is ‘why?.’ In the last 90 days, there have been 65 units that have expired. In addition to that, there were 109 owners that cancelled their condos from being listed on the market. That is a grand total of 174 units that were removed in the last 90 days. So what this shows us is that frustrated Sellers have thrown their hands up and removed their units from the market.”
“As condo sales in downtown Toronto slowly creep lower as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, would-be investors might be thinking that now’s the time to make their move on the market. John Pasalis, President at Realosophy Realty, notes that resale prices are indeed on the decline, but only by ‘a little bit.’ Rents, on the other hand, have decreased by the double-digits; nearly 20% in some cases. ‘Certainly, if you’re a savvy investor, you might find some value,’ he says. ‘There’s no rule necessarily, but it doesn’t seem right to be paying peak prices — 2020 prices — for rents that are at 2018 levels.’”
“Calgary is currently a paradise for renters seeking the latest and greatest new places to rent, a new report shows. The city has seen 17 launches from Jan. 1 to Sept. 30, or 2,174 more units. ‘That’s a lot of new supply to a city adding to consistent over-supply,’ says Andie Daggett, manager of rental market data for Alberta at Urban Analytics. ‘A few years ago developers were looking at Calgary and saying, ‘Wow, we need more rentals!’ she says. But planning, approval and construction take years. ‘So by the time you break ground, three years later, you could still have another two years of building if it’s high-rise concrete.’”
“Property experts think the writing is already on the wall for the ‘mini-boom’. Tom Wilson, a director of King West – Chartered Surveyors, Land & Estate Agents, based in the East Midlands, said in the Rics survey: ‘Sentiment has taken a hit with regional lockdowns and negative economic commentary. Most have their eyes on next year now and beware the falling knife.’”
“There’s a worrying sign in the Australian housing market with one state seeing prices fall at more than double the rate of the 2008 US housing crash. As of the most recent comparable data, we have almost 50 per cent more debt than the Americans did during the absolute height of their pre-global financial crisis debt binge. With the advent of the coronavirus pandemic and more than five million people being supported by the government’s JobKeeper or JobSeeker programs, there are signs that the Aussie property market may be following the same trajectory as the Americans did during the GFC.”
“PEXA, an E-conveyancing firm made up by the various privatised land registry offices, recently authored a report into the direction of housing prices in our two most populace states, New South Wales and Victoria. According to PEXA, from the start of the year until the end of September, housing prices in NSW are down 9 per cent and in Victoria, prices were down a whopping 14 per cent. Commercial property in NSW also fared extremely poorly, with prices down 14 per cent in the first nine months of the year.”
“In NSW, prices are falling 37 per cent faster than America’s were when they were crashing in 2008. For Victoria, the numbers are even more concerning, with prices falling at more than double the rate of the US housing crash. For a nation like Australia that eats, sleeps and breathes property and property investment, these figures are practically blasphemous. Even with more than 3.5 million workers being supported by JobKeeper, hundreds of thousands of mortgages and business loans in deferral and unprecedented support from the Morrison government, PEXA’s data shows prices falling at an alarming rate.”
“If your mortgage has been in forbearance and the window for that protection is ending, don’t panic. Whether your loan is serviced by a private lender or owned by one of the government-backed mortgage giants, there are options for how to proceed, even if you’re still in a tough financial spot. ‘We’re here to support you, don’t let it impact your credit negatively,’ said Jennifer Kouchis, senior vice president of real estate lending at VyStar Credit Union in Jacksonville, Florida. ‘If we don’t hear back from you, we don’t have a choice in the next step of the process.’”
“If your forbearance period is ending, that doesn’t mean you’re about to lose your house, even if you still can’t afford your mortgage payments. Stay in touch with your lender and see what options are available to you. ‘It’s better to call and think through options instead of hiding under a rock,’ said Marina Walsh, vice president of industry analysis at Mortgage Bankers Association.”