Despite months of political maneuvering, Democrats remain
divided over President Biden’s Build Back Better (BBB) agenda. Although Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema
are regularly criticized by other Democrats for blocking progress, House
progressives bear much of the blame. Their insistence that the House vote on
BBB before taking up the bipartisan infrastructure bill was supposed to
guarantee that the progressive agenda would not be watered down. This ploy has
not worked.

Speaker Pelosi set multiple deadlines to vote on the two
bills, but each time the deadline passed. The votes in the House were not
there. The President’s last-ditch attempt to get a vote before his trip to
Europe yielded a new, less expansive framework but did not resolve the ongoing controversy.

Senator Manchin’s recent comments precipitated another round of finger pointing, but his position has been clear for months: He wants a clean vote on the infrastructure bill
rather than holding it hostage for passage of BBB, will not support any version
of BBB “without thoroughly understanding the impact” it has on the economy and
federal debt, and will not support expanding social programs when Social
Security and Medicare face insolvency. Senator Manchin decries the “shell games
and budget gimmicks” that mask the true cost of the legislation and that adds
to “our nearly $29 trillion in national debt that no one else seems to care
about” or that further spike inflation.

Can Senator Manchin prevail? Failure to enact some version of BBB over the next few months would deal a serious blow to the political legacies of Nancy Pelosi, who has committed to stepping down at the end of her current term as Speaker, and President Biden. In other words, Democratic leadership need to compromise or risk a huge political failing. A key question for many watching this debate is when will such a deal be reached?

First, there is no necessary or logical connection between
voting on BBB and extending any expiring program. The “threat” that surface
transportation programs would expire on November 1 was the most recent excuse
offered to drive a premature vote on BBB. Those programs along with most other
functions of the federal government will run out of funds on December 3,
potentially forcing a shutdown and furloughing hundreds of thousands of federal
workers. As dramatic as that may be, tying the BBB to a vote on a continuing
resolution to fund the government will not guarantee passage of either
legislation. Speaker Pelosi will continue to delay the BBB vote until she has
the votes, regardless of the overheated rhetoric that is likely from
progressives.

Second, no final vote should be expected before the Congressional Budget Office can provide a detailed score. The price tag for legislation modeled after the White House framework may exceed the $1.75 trillion target, a staggering amount but well below the $3.5 trillion backed by progressives. The pressure to push the legislation to a vote without a full analysis dissipated once it became clear that there never was a real deadline for enactment.

However, that estimate is likely to understate the full 10-year
cost due to continued use of budget gimmicks, such as nominally halting or
truncating a benefit program before the end of the 10-year budget window. Since
new subsidy programs scheduled to expire in a few years will probably be
extended by a future Congress, the spending commitment implicitly made by the
BBB could be hundreds of billions larger than the CBO score.

Despite Senator Manchin’s criticism, these accounting techniques provide political cover when spending ambitions exceed budget targets. Such cover will almost certainly be needed to forge a compromise among Democrats on another multi-trillion-dollar bill. Nonetheless, Manchin has voiced concerns about BBB that are shared by other policymakers who are less able to speak publicly on those issues. Given the narrow voting margins held by Democrats, this is an important reminder that no political party has a mandate for irresponsible policy and profligate spending.

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