It’s going to be a bad decade. Same with the 2030s. And the 2040s? No better and probably worse. A nation in long-term decline. At least that’s what many Americans seem to think. A Pew Research survey last year found that while 56 percent of us are “at least somewhat optimistic about America’s future,” a deeper dive finds plenty of pessimism.

So many worries: debt, climate change, inequality, automation,
health care, terrorism. It’s no wonder, then, that twice as many of us predict
average living standards will worsen over the next three decades as predict
improvement. And half of the public says children will have a worse standard of
living in 30 years than they do today vs. 42 percent who predict they will be
better off.

But there’s little new about such gloominess. Gallup hasn’t found a majority expressing satisfaction “with the way things are going in the United States at this time” since 2004. No doubt the Great Recession is largely to blame for that. Now, however, people are pretty happy with the economy, and yet the negativity persists. Today is OK, but tomorrow will likely be worse. As Financial Times columnist Janan Ganesh writes:

Declinism is no longer just a trope of current affairs non-fiction. It is the national mood, and it predates Mr Trump. Of all the US founders, one of the least lionised, John Adams — to whom there is still no monument in Washington, for lack of donations — most reflects the contemporary spirit. The great sceptic always winced at the idea of inexorable progress, of America as celestially favoured among nations.

Then again, forecasts are hard — especially about the future. In a recent report, AEI scholar Karlyn Bowman took a look at the public’s crystal ball. Among the examples of public’s pessimistic predictions that didn’t pan out: In 1949, 70 percent said Americans would not reach the moon in 50 years. In 1974 and 1984, large majorities said their children or grandchildren would face severe water and, separately, air pollution in 25 to 50 years. A quarter in 1974 said it was very likely the US would run out of oil in 50 years.

Maybe the American public will be pleasantly surprised with what happens over the next 20 or 30 years. Shouldn’t be hard. It’s a low bar given their current expectations. But we can probably do much better than that. And certainly, a retreat from progress is no way to create the future we want.

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