To cap off his trip to the Middle East last month, President Joe Biden invited Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas to join the Abraham Accords, the joint security agreement between the US, Israel, and several Gulf Arab states. But Abbas has been invited to this sort of multilateral party before—in 2003, during The Roadmap negotiations; in 2007, during the Annapolis conference; and 2010 peace talks in Washington. This time around, however, Abbas is playing hard to get, irate that the cause of Palestine is not at the center of this new Middle East framework. What Abbas misses is that the countries of the region are moving on . . . with him, or without him.
Abbas apparently perceives membership with the accords as a binary sort: Members care about Israel, holdouts care about Palestine. This year, Emiratis flagged that their free trade deal with Israel will exceed $2 billion and Bahrain reported similarly impressive figures. And, both countries have openly celebrated diplomatic normalization with Israel. But, for Abbas, forward progress in the Accords framework represents nothing less than a betrayal of the Palestinian people, prompting claims that Palestine’s neighbors “have turned their backs on everything: the rights of the Palestinian people, the Palestinian state.” Still, Abbas’ rhetoric is getting old; even his closer allies in the regions are becoming impatient.
US Ambassador Tom Nides insists that the accords should not be conceived as “a substitute for Israel-Palestine peace,” and Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz favored leveraging the deal “in order to strengthen the Palestinian Authority and promote confidence-building measures.” And while Israel rejected Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s request to add a focus group on Palestine to the accords, members did support folding Palestine into the existing focus groups. Still, Abbas refuses to accept nuance.
The accords are not the black-and-white picture the Palestinian leader would have us believe. Saudi Arabia is hedging its bets, hoping to rely on Israeli defense capabilities against Iran, but public support for the Palestinian cause remains high in the country. Similarly, polling in Egypt and Jordan suggests uncertainty about the efficacy of the accords. If Biden were seriously courting Palestinian participation, he would underscore that the long-term future of peace in the region remains dependent upon the resolution of Palestine issues, too; Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia are watching. Similarly, if Abbas were politically shrewd—though few have accused him of that trait—he would seek to leverage regional guilt to achieve forward movement in dialogue with Israel.
Over a decade ago, Abbas offered that, “it’s not a matter of optimism or pessimism when there is a global call headed by the U.S. for negotiations. Either you take advantage and answer the call, or you do not. There might not be much hope, but if you go, you have a presence there, and if you are absent, the whole world will tell you that you missed an historic opportunity.” He has, in his pride, forgotten his own advice. As it is, the Palestinian president-for-life appears intent on squandering his limited leverage, and continuing to make enemies both within the region and without. And what that will ultimately mean, unfortunately for all concerned, is that the solution to the question of Palestine will need to wait for Abbas’ successor.
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