A Model Based On Aggressive Investments With Over-Optimistic Judgment Of The Market

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Homeowners interested in selling are rushing to dump their domiciles before possible buyers run away. ‘The thought of rising interest rates has lit a bit of fire to our timeline,’ Meri Schroeder, a retiree in Frederick, Md., told The Journal. She and her husband expect to begin marketing their 3,400-square-foot home in the next several weeks.”

“As more supply comes on the market and mortgage rates rise sharply, sellers appear to be coming back to Earth, at least a little. ‘Price drops are still rare, but the fact that they are becoming more frequent is one clear sign that the housing market is cooling,’ said Daryl Fairweather, Redfin’s chief economist. ‘It goes to show that there’s a limit to sellers’ power. There is still way more demand than supply, and buyers are still sweating, but sellers can no longer overprice their home and still expect buyers to clamor at their door.’”

“‘The bottom line is that mortgage rates are on course to surpass 5%, a level not seen since February 2011, when the typical home in the U.S. was priced at just $166,000 — less than half the price of today’s typical home,’ said Realtor.com’s George Ratiu.”

“How long can California home-price appreciation top the surging inflation rate? Inflation is typically the byproduct of an overheated economy. Hot business cycles usually generate plenty of jobs and fat paychecks. Those opportunities help make lofty mortgages payments. But, remember, inflation also has a bad habit of pushing up mortgage rates. The 30-year average rate is already almost double its January 2021 bottom of 2.65%. And consider last year’s 4.7% average increase in the cost of living topped 3% mortgage rates. Inflation last topped financing costs in 1979.”

“A high-profile Botox doctor in Los Angeles has filed for bankruptcy after squandering his fortune as he built the luxury megamansion of his dreams. Dr. Alex Khadavi, 49, designed the mansion complete with a champagne tasting room, DJ booth, and NFT art gallery, court documents reveal. He even used 24-karat gold dust to stain the floors. However, he conceded that he ‘dreamed too big,’ when he realized that the lavish details had caused him to go way, way over his budget.”

“Colorado does not regulate HOAs, and little has been known about how often the groups litigate against homeowners. The local industry organization said it does not keep track of how many foreclosures HOAs initiate in Colorado. The state’s quarterly foreclosure reports — which are no longer being created due to state budget cuts during the pandemic — do not include HOA foreclosure numbers at all. Several Timbers homeowners said they kept up with their mortgage but still faced losing their homes because they fell behind on their monthly dues.”

“‘At first it was denial, like, ‘Oh, that’s just a threat. They can’t take away your home.’ And then, as things progressed, [we realized], ‘Yes, they can take away your home,’ said Timbers resident Mary Kunic.”

“Nova Scotia is trying something few provinces have done before: increasing taxes for all residential property owners who don’t live in the province full-time. Mark and Linda Northwood of Toronto are among the thousands of non-residents facing steep increases in their property tax bills. The couple bought land in the Kingsburg area sight unseen a year ago and planned to build a retirement home on the property. Now they’re having second thoughts. ‘If we had known this was coming a year ago, we would never have bought that property,’ said Mr. Northwood.”

“Finance Minister Tengku Datuk Seri Zafrul Abdul Aziz said despite the property market’s recovery, the issue of mismatch between supply and demand as well as affordability have contributed to the glut of completed but unsold residential properties. He said the number of unsold serviced apartments also showed an increase. ‘More than 85 per cent of the total overhang were for units priced at RM500,000 and above, with the majority being in Johor,’ he noted.”

“Over two dozen Chinese real estate companies failed to meet the March 31 deadline to file their audited financial reports for the 2021 year, and for the companies that did file, the results reflected a year of challenges. China Vanke Co, one of the giants in Chinese real estate, reported a 46% decline in net profits, the third time ever since the company went public in 1991; the chairman, Yu Liang, said it was a ‘wake-up call’ and apologized to shareholders. The shortcomings of Vanke, rooted in a model based on ‘aggressive investments with over-optimistic judgment of the market,’ according to Yu, are reflective of the approaches and practices of the real estate market in China that led to Evergrande’s collapse and the subsequent turmoil.”

“The housing market has turned in favour of buyers, with rising interest rates and tighter lending restrictions driving down values in the major centres. ‘If you look at just March in isolation, there are now nine of the 16 urban areas showing a value decline, including the main centres of Auckland, Hamilton, Wellington, Christchurch and Dunedin,’ QV general manager David Nagel said. ‘With the massive rise in listings over the past couple of months the balance of power has shifted firmly into the hands of buyers, after such a prolonged period of it being a sellers’ market.’”

“Home prices have begun falling in Sydney and Hong Kong, while values in Singapore barely rose last quarter, as buyers wary of rising interest rates and economic headwinds choose to sit on the sidelines. The turnaround couldn’t be more abrupt, after low borrowing costs and a fear of missing out during the pandemic spurred a global property frenzy that stretched from Toronto to Auckland. Home prices in Australia’s most populous city are showing signs of fatigue near record highs as expectations grow that the central bank will begin raising interest rates soon.”

“‘A lot of it has to do with interest-rate talk, and Sydney, because it is such an expensive market, is very sensitive to talk about rate rises,’ said Nerida Conisbee, chief economist at real estate firm Ray White. Waning competition at auctions ‘reflects the sentiment that has really changed towards the willingness of people to pay well above what the reserve price is.’”

“Residential prices in Hong Kong have been trending down since August with no quick recovery in sight. The city’s housing market appeared unstoppable last year, with prices breaking a record in August. Values have since declined 7.3%, according to Centaline Property Agency Ltd. UBS Group AG expects prices will fall this year due to the population outflow and rate hikes. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is even more pessimistic, predicting a 20% drop by 2025.”