A Classic Case Of What Goes Up, Can Come Down

A report from NBC Bay Area in California. “Median home prices in San Francisco have fallen by more than $300,000 in three months, Compass reports. Experts said it is tough to buy a home now as prices are likely to fall further. ‘As that’s happening, we’re seeing sales start to dip,’ said Nicole Bachaud, a senior economist at Zillow. ‘We’re seeing homes stay on the market longer so inventory is beginning to pool up, and that’s going to drop prices as demand is taking a step back because people just can’t afford to be transacting in this market.”

“Meanwhile, Redfin numbers show some prospective homebuyers are getting cold feet. The real estate website reports 23% of those who signed a contract to buy a home in Northern California backed out of the deal — that is double the number from last year.”

The Los Angeles Times in California. “As the housing market has slowed across Southern California and the country, sellers have had to adjust their expectations.Homes that would have received dozens of offers at the beginning of the year get just a few these days. Other properties receive none, forcing owners to slash their asking price and relinquish dreams of record profits. Now, some would-be sellers are calling it quits all together.”

“For Ara Kassabian, there’s no deadline forcing his hand. The 56-year-old software engineer wants to eventually sell his three-bedroom home in Glendale, take the proceeds and retire in Portugal. He had been planning to do that in coming months, but no longer. If he sold his home now, Kassabian estimates he’d pocket a couple of hundred thousand dollars less than if the market had stayed hot — extra money that could’ve gone a long way in Portugal. ‘If I wait a year, probably the market will take off again, and I could get a lot more,’ he said.”

A press release. “‘The last four buyers I’ve worked with have all backed out of deals,’ said Alexis Malin, a Redfin agent in Jacksonville. ‘One of my clients asked the seller for money to cover the home being repainted. The seller said no at first, so my buyer canceled the contract, but the seller then changed their mind and repainted the whole house. My buyer still walked away because he decided he didn’t love the home that much after all and he knew he had other options.’”

“In Jacksonville, roughly 800 home-purchase agreements were called off in July, equal to 29.3% of homes that went under contract that month. That’s the highest percentage among the 93 U.S. metropolitan areas Redfin analyzed. Next came Las Vegas (27.4%), Lakeland, FL (26.2%), New Orleans (25.9%), San Antonio (25%), Orlando, FL (24.5%), Palm Bay, FL (24.5%), Deltona, FL (24%), Atlanta (23.7%) and Pensacola, FL (23.6%). Metros must have had at least 1,000 pending home sales in July to be included.”

“Nationwide, roughly 63,000 home-purchase agreements fell through in July, equal to 16.1% of homes that went under contract that month, according to Redfin. That’s the highest percentage on record with the exception of March and April 2020, when the onset of the coronavirus pandemic brought the housing market to a near standstill.”

The Boston Globe in Massachusetts. “Just 1,380 single-family homes were sold in July, an 18.6 percent decline from the 1,696 sold in July 2021, according to the Greater Boston Association of Realtors. That represents the lowest number of single-family home sales in any July since 2011. Similarly, condominium sales dropped about 25 percent. Single-family home and condominium prices are up from this time last year, at $841,500 and $680,000, respectively. But both those figures are down from June, when the median sales price for a single-family home hit a whopping $899,950.”

“The latest numbers are a sign that, after a red-hot first half of the year, home prices in Greater Boston may finally have peaked. ‘It’s a much different market now than when the year started. Sellers still hold the upper hand, but they no longer get to name their price and terms,’ said GBAR President Melvin A. Vieira, Jr. ‘There’s a little more room for negotiation these days.’”

The Washington Post. “‘The party’s over,’ according to Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS. While home sellers may feel sad about the end of bidding wars, buyers in the D.C. region are more likely to feel relief. Approximately 24 percent of homes for sale in D.C. had a price drop in June, according to Bright MLS. By neighborhood, price drops ranged from a low of eight percent of listings in Park View to a high of 46 percent in Fort Dupont Park.”

“Other D.C. neighborhoods with the highest percentage of reduced sales prices include Marshall Heights (43 percent), Southwest Waterfront (42 percent), Carver Langston (39 percent) and Lily Ponds (39 percent). Neighborhoods where sellers lowered their prices in June include Adams Morgan (30 percent), Deanwood (29 percent), Dupont Circle (26 percent), Georgetown (23 percent), Petworth (20 percent), Mount Pleasant (20 percent) and Capitol Hill (19 percent).”

From Deseret News. “‘In short, the housing downturn has some way yet to run,’ Pantheon Macro chief economist Ian Shepherdson told Fortune, calling it ‘grim’ data. He also noted the home builder index has failed to surpass economist projections every month since January. The survey also showed present and expected sales also fell again in August, maintaining the ‘steep and sustained’ decline in mortgage demand, which has plummeted nearly 30% from a December peak, Shepherdson said.”

“‘The collapse points to clear and substantial downside risk for housing construction over the next few months, as builders try to manage their excess inventory,’ Shepherdson told Fortune. ‘That will be impossible without hefty price declines, now that developers are competing with rapidly rising inventory in the existing homes market.’”

From CNN Business. “The housing numbers on Tuesday were, in a word: ‘Terrible,’ according to Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. He added the single-family starts have now dropped by 30% from their November 2020 peak. And this is likely not the floor, Shepherdson cautioned. ‘In short, the whole housing sector is now in retreat,’ he said.”

US News and World Report. “‘There has been a dramatic turnaround in buyer activity in a relatively short time,’ said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS. ‘Just months ago, buyers were falling over one another to bid up prices of new homes as the inventory of existing homes was at historically low levels. Now, in the wake of higher mortgage rates prospective buyers are canceling contracts and taking themselves off of waiting lists for new homes prompting builders to slash home prices.’”

WFAA TV in Texas. “Almost half of all active listings in the Fort Worth housing market have had price reductions as demand continues to cool. The median home price for a home sold in Fort Worth dipped again in July. Additionally, active listings were up 40% year over year last month, according to a report from the Greater Fort Worth Association of Realtors. In Johnson and Parker Counties, those numbers were up more than 70%. With inventory rising and demand slowing from its previous fever pitch, 49% of active listings have had price reductions, said Shannon Ashkinos, 2022 president of the Greater Fort Worth Association of Realtors. ‘I think that it’s a correction in the market,’ she said.”

ABC 15 in Arizona. “The Valley housing market continues to cool down and the impact is being felt in some areas more than others. Based on the most recent Cromford Index data, cities on the outskirts of the Phoenix metro, like Buckeye, Queen Creek, and the town of Maricopa, have moved deep into buyer’s market territory. The East Valley suburbs of Gilbert, Tempe, and Chandler continue to shift in the same direction. In the entire Phoenix metro area, the number of homes on the market in July was just under 15,000, a monthly high not seen since 2019.”

“Four major real estate markets around the state are seeing a decrease in the median listing price. Flagstaff, Phoenix, Show Low, and Tucson are all seeing monthly price decreases in listings in a range from 3% to almost 4.5%. One analyst at a major real estate company in the Valley characterized the market in one word: uncertainty. Right now, it does appear that the housing cool-down in Phoenix, and much of the state, will only continue.”

The Stanwood-Camano News in Washington. “In the Stanwood-Camano area, there were 141 homes on the market in July — about double from a year ago. On Camano, the median price of the 34 homes sold in July was $601,000, down slightly from $615,000 a year ago, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Locally, home construction companies are building ‘at a monumental rate’ while trying to adjust to increases in mortgage rates, said John Deely, executive vice president of Coldwell Bank Bain. ‘We are seeing builders moving their price points down and providing incentives to buyers in closing costs and buydowns to help borrowers.’”

Canadian Mortgage Trends. “Canada’s national average home prices fell for the fifth consecutive month in July, and is now down 23% since reaching a peak in February. Regionally, Ontario and British Columbia are seeing the brunt of the price declines, as they were also the provinces that saw the largest gains over the past year. Economists, including RBC senior economist Robert Hogue, noted that a bottom in housing is ‘likely many months away’ given that further rate hikes are still expected from the Bank of Canada.”

“‘The pandemic may not be over, but the pandemic-era housing market boom certainly is,’ Hogue wrote. ‘With the balance of power having dramatically shifted in their favour, buyers will be in a position to continue extracting price concessions from sellers for some time to come.’”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “In Ontario’s Oakville-Milton region, a wealthy area west of Toronto, the home price index was down 17 per cent on a seasonally adjusted basis from February to July. The typical home price lost $266,000 over that period. In Mississauga, a large urban centre that borders Toronto, the home price index fell 13 per cent. In Brantford and Barrie, the typical home price was down 14 per cent and 9 per cent, respectively. In B.C.’s Chilliwack region and the Fraser Valley, the index was down 9 per cent and 8 per cent, respectively.”

“From peak prices in February, the national home price index is down 6 per cent. That marks the largest five-month decline since the financial crisis. And it does not fully reflect the impact of the Bank of Canada’s latest interest rate hike in mid-July, when the central bank increased its benchmark rate by one full percentage point to 2.5 per cent. ‘Onward and downward for now,’ said Robert Kavcic, senior economist with Bank of Montreal, in a note to clients, adding that July resale numbers do not ‘fully reflect’ the latest interest rate move.”

The Georgia Straight in Canada. “‘Based on early readings of transaction data over July, we are expecting the peak-to-trough decline in prices since the first quarter to continue to push towards our forecast of 19%,’ TD Economics stated in a summary of recent events and what to expect ahead. The post was written by Toronto Dominion bank’s director of economics, James Orlando. ‘With the BoC unlikely to pause on rate hikes until later this year, the real estate sector’s fall from grace isn’t done yet,’ Orlando stated.”

The Telegraph. “Measures to help homeowners on benefits have failed to match the Bank of England’s six consecutive increases in interest rates since the end of last year. Sophie Evans, 54, lives in the Midlands and has a £107,000 interest-only mortgage on a tracker deal. Her mortgage rate has nearly doubled from 2.26pc to 4pc as the Bank Rate rose and her bills have become unaffordable. Ms Evans is disabled and cannot work and so receives SMI, which largely covered her mortgage until this year.”

“Her mortgage bill has jumped by 80pc to £360 and she now needs to find £170 per month to avoid defaulting – around 12pc of her income. She said: ‘It hurts, especially when all the other bills are going up. I am worried that I will face repossession. Being disabled, I don’t know what else I can cut back. There will be so many people getting into arrears. There will be a tsunami of repossessions.’”

From News 7. “New analysis from ANZ on Wednesday predicted that the national median house price could drop $150,518 by next year if prices continue to fall as expected. That means the median house price for an Australian property could fall 8 per cent this year and 9 per cent next year, landing at $666,141 by December 2023 – however, the amount will differ from state to state. ‘This is a classic case of what goes up, can come down,’ Rate City research director Sally Tindall said.”

“New homeowners may find that their home is worth less by next year than what they paid for it ‘which could make it difficult to refinance, especially if their equity has dropped below 20 per cent,’ Tindall said. ‘For those who bought a new home at the peak, news of big property price drops might make them feel sick to the stomach. ‘If you are in this position, don’t panic. Prices do fluctuate and if you can still make your mortgage repayments, it may be worth riding out the drops, as prices do tend to eventually go back up.’”

From Reuters. “Chinese developers in ‘survival mode’ sharply cut property investment in July while new construction starts suffered their biggest fall in nearly a decade, suggesting the liquidity-challenged sector is not about to turn the corner anytime soon. ‘Everyone except state-owned enterprises is in survival mode,’ said a senior official at a Shenzhen-based developer, speaking on condition of anonymity. ‘We’re all waiting for a recovery and trying to speed up sales and reduce costs and buy less land. But at the end of the day, sales depend on the end users.’”

“‘We’ll just have to tighten our belts, and our top priority is to make sure housing projects are delivered,’ an official at a developer that once defaulted on bonds told Reuters. ‘It’s really hard to raise funds once your credibility is damaged,’ said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity.”