A weekend topic starting with my comment this week. “We really need to stop playing along with the globalist scum media narratives.”
From Bloomberg. “On a technical basis, Bitcoin is seen by some analysts as being caught in a no man’s land between different moving averages. The coin might be forming what’s known as a head-and-shoulders pattern, which would be a bearish development. ‘The problem with crypto is, who’s going to catch that falling knife?’ Cate Faddis, CIO at Grace Capital, said in an interview. ‘I am very concerned about crypto — honestly, it reminds me of ‘08 with the real estate and it could spread to the entire market.’”
The Boston Globe. “Walk around Boston, and you’ll find storefronts that emptied during the pandemic taking on new lives. Former sleep stores or diet clinics are being converted to mini-warehouses for a wave of ‘instant delivery’ startups aiming to dominate the ‘last mile’ of last mile delivery, and fueled by deep pockets of cash to do so. Promising to shuttle bananas or ice cream to your apartment in 15 minutes, these companies are renting storefronts and turning them into packing centers, then employing couriers on e-bike or scooter to make deliveries within a mile or two.”
“These ‘dark stores,’ as some call them, are coming, powered by huge sums of venture capital investment — $5.8 billion in the first nine months of 2021, according to research firm CB Insights, on top of $496 million last year and $1.1 billion in 2019. Some analysts warn this whole industry could amount to a flash in the pan, pumped up by investors chasing the next big idea and winding up not so different from the business it aimed to disrupt. Just as their start-up ancestors, Uber or WeWork, did.”
“‘It’s the next VC money pit is what it really is,’ said Sucharita Kodali, a retail analyst at Forrester.”
From Multi-Housing News. “The single-family build-to-rent sector has been described during a panel at the National Association of Real Estate Editors conference as a growth business that is only just now findings its legs. When Richard Ross of Quinn Residences founded his company a month prior to the start of the pandemic, his goal was to raise $250 million. The company recently closed out its capital raise at a whopping $900 million.”
“But in an earlier session on the future of the post-COVID suburb, panelist Alex Kamkar of Bold Fox Development shared his negative thoughts on the BTR concept, essentially calling it perhaps the worst thing to hit the housing market. ‘Housing is not a commodity, but the investment guys think it is,’ said Kamkar, whose firm develops master-planned communities. ‘Houses are being taken offline to the benefit of Wall Street,’ but to the determent of local home buyers.”
“Kamkar warned that there are only so many top-notch investors to go around. ‘The Blackstone Group is the creme-de-la-creme,’ he told Multi-Housing News after the session, ‘but the next buyer won’t be Blackstone. This thing is going to go broke eventually.’”
From CNBC. “With the inventory shortage, chances are homes will continue to go fast, says Glenn Phillips, CEO and lead economic analyst for Lake Homes Realty. ‘When buying a home in the next year or longer, it will be important to watch new listings, including ‘coming soon’ listings, and be very prepared to not only visit the home quickly, but prepare to decide and extend an offer almost immediately,’ says Phillips.”
“Acting fast doesn’t mean overpaying, though. ‘Buy competitively, but still be prudent,’ Phillips says. ‘There are home sellers who are pricing at such a high price that only suckers will buy.’”
From Bloomberg. “A hawkish turn from the Federal Reserve and the omicron variant have erased more than 10% off the market value of cryptocurrencies, $50 billion from newly public companies and 14% from a basket of meme stocks. While day-trader resolve has been tested before, it’s been years since it happened without the open-ended support from central banks.”
From Arlington Now. “Historically low interest rates have been one of the main drivers of the rapid housing price appreciation we’ve witnessed over the last 12-18 months. The charts below, courtesy of the National Association of Realtors, show that low interest rates have kept affordability, based on mortgage payments vs income, lower than the ’05-’07 housing bubble despite housing prices soaring relative to income; even higher than ’05-’06 peaks.”
“For years, we’ve been reading/hearing pundits say that it’s hard to imagine mortgage rates getting lower, often coupled with overly salesy messaging from the real estate industry that you must buy now because rates have never been so low and likely will not remain this low much longer. The problem with those claims is that mortgage rates have been dropping for about 40 years now (with relatively minor fluctuations along the way)…”
The Army Times. “More homebuyers are using Veterans Affairs home loans than ever before. In fiscal 2021, department officials guaranteed more than 1.44 million loans valued at roughly $447 billion, a new record high and up 15 percent from the prior fiscal year. John Bell, acting executive director of VA’s Loan Guaranty Service, attributed the jump to ‘historically low interest rates driving demand and increasing home values driving sales.’”
“Individuals who qualify can receive lower interest rates, smaller closing costs and often do not need to make any down payments to finalize the loans.”
The La Grande Observer in Oregon. “According to Federal Reserve Economic Data, the median listing price in La Grande reached an all-time high of $385,000 in May. From December 2020 to February 2021, the median listing price in La Grande jumped from $232,450 to $339,000. That median price has leveled out since, coming in at $285,000 in October. Across the country, the median price of a new house sold increased from $344,400 in September 2020 to $408,800 in September 2021.”
“‘It’s something that I haven’t quite wrapped my head around — the prices,’ said Holly Walker, of RE/MAX in La Grande. ‘I would have never imagined when I started this business 26 years ago that I would see this level of interest.’”
“‘During the summer and spring there was a lot of competitiveness for properties,’ said John Howard, of John J. Howard & Associates Real Estate in La Grande. ‘Some people paid over value, but they just wanted that particular house and were willing to go over and above other buyers.’”
The Park City Record in Utah. “According to the Park City Board of Realtors, in the second quarter of 2021 the median price of a single-family home within the Park City Limits rose to $2.75 million. That compares to $1.82M in Santa Monica $1.7M in Vail, and $2.3M in Greenwich, Connecticut. Within Park City Limits, the number of total single-family home sales more than doubled over 2020, to 367. Meanwhile, the sales volume tripled, from $390 million last year to $1.2 billion this year.”
“All neighborhoods saw a massive price increase. In Old Town, the median single-family home price topped $2.1 million. In the exclusive Aerie neighborhood, the median price more than doubled year-to-year, to $3.4 million. Snyderville’s median price rose 37%, to $1.75 million, while sales also spiked around the Jordanelle reservoir: In the Tubaye/Hideout area, the median rose 40% to $2.4 million. The number of sales units in Promontory went up a staggering 118%, but the dollar volume saw an even more impressive 154% hike.”
“It’s been noted that the amount of vacant land purchased in the past 18 months represents 4 to 5 years of historic sales. The Board of Realtors speculates that this may be investors looking for a safe place to put their money, as much as those who intend to actually build.”
“It’s not always easy being the most popular kid in school. According to the Park City Board of Realtors, sellers are encountering more buyer resistance as shoppers react to the unprecedented price increases. That means although plenty of people are looking for a home, there are fewer written offers, as buyers wait to see if the market will dip.”
From NBC Dallas in Texas. “For those of you not ready to buy a home, in the heart of downtown Fort Worth, construction is well underway for a new 27 story high-rise. It will be the first of its kind downtown because the luxury residences are for rent. DECO 969 right off Commerce St., just walking distance from Sundance Square will feature one, two, and three-bedroom apartment homes and penthouses with resort style amenities.”
“The first 7 floors will be just parking. Above that, expect some incredible views from the art deco building. We talked to the CEO of Southern Land Company, who says this project has been in the works for years. ‘After 12 years of looking, we found this site, and we’re thrilled about doing it. We’re kind of amazed. Downtown Fort Worth is one of the nicest downtowns I think in the country,’ said Time Downey. ‘I think what’s been done at Sundance Square and maybe what the Bass family has done is incredible. It just needs more people living there.’”
From Prestige Online. “Investing in whisky: a case of golden promises or just fool’s gold? They call it ‘liquid gold’ – and as an investment, whisky is starting to live up to the name. Last May, at Bonhams Fine and Rare auction in Hong Kong, two bottles of The Macallan 1926 sold in separate lots to different bidders for more than US$1 million each, breaking world records for the spirit set just a month before. But gains aren’t always guaranteed, and research and at least a little interest are considered essential. ‘More than 99 percent of all whiskies will not appreciate in value over time,’ says Joseph V Micallef, independent whisky expert.”