There’s been a great deal of criticism of Biden administration plans to repress American fossil fuel output for the sake of the climate. I’ve been part of it. However, either the plans aren’t serious or they aren’t serious yet, because the oil and gas sectors performed fairly well last year. For our sake, we need to maintain that performance, not undermine it. For our allies’ sake, we should assess whether more US production is possible.

It would be a serious mistake to impose punitive taxes or regulations on oil and gas on grounds that production is a net harm. Perhaps the core statement from President Joe Biden along these lines is a 2030 greenhouse emissions target. There are other substantial proposals, and a stabilized economy might encourage the administration to now become more aggressive. (Note: ending subsidies is not aggressive. They should be ended.)

To date, thankfully, limiting oil and gas is nearly all
talk, no action. Numbers released earlier this week by the US Energy
Information Administration paint a fairly positive picture of 2021:

1) Crude oil output fell about 1 percent from 2020 and 9 percent from 2019. But the full year was still the third-highest on record and April–December 2021 production outpaced April–December 2020, as COVID faded.

2) Natural gas output rose 2 percent from 2020, almost 2 percent from 2019, and was the highest on record. It also strengthened after the first quarter of last year.

3) Crude oil imports rose about 4 percent from 2020 but fell 9 percent from 2019. Other than 2020, gross crude imports were lower than any year since 1992.

4 Crude oil exports fell about 6 percent from 2020 but were slightly higher than 2019 and the second-highest on record. Other than 2020, net crude oil imports were the lowest since 1973.

5) Natural gas imports were 10 percent higher than 2020 and 2 percent higher than 2019.

6) But natural gas exports were 25 percent higher than 2020, which had been the highest on record. Net exports also set a record, as the US exported more than twice as much gas as we imported.

Reliable global data are not yet available for 2021, but the
US likely narrowed the gap with Russia for largest gas exporter. That points to
the international component of decisions about how much American oil and gas
production is ideal.

Small net oil imports might encourage the Biden
administration to cut domestic oil production. An obvious risk is inflation
but, even if it ebbs, any shortfalls in replacement green energy could bring
greater reliance on Saudi Arabian or Russian oil, which should weigh heavily
against what the administration thinks can be achieved.

Since the US has a surplus of natural gas, inhibiting
production won’t cause immediate problems at home. Overseas, however, the
damage would be considerable. Gas displaces coal. American gas can also help
displace Russian gas in Europe and gas from Middle East autocracies for Japan,
Korea, and Taiwan, among others.

To this point, criticizing President Biden on energy is unjustified. Criticism would be justified if he risked the return of large-scale oil imports from dictatorships. More subtle but important: Can the US further raise gas production and export, to help our friends? Will the private sector be allowed to determine this, or will the government discourage it? The administration should reevaluate its energy path in light of recent events.

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