Polling in the US suggests that Americans increase their support for political leaders — at least in the short term — during periods of war. Quick decisive actions are popular; recent long, drawn-out ones have not been. Will the same effect be seen in Russia for Vladimir Putin?

After the fall of the Soviet Union, American pollsters descended on Russia. Ordinary citizens responded in high numbers to polls on everything from cosmetics to politics. After being unable to speak freely, the floodgates opened. Today the best-known home-grown pollster is the highly regarded Levada-Center, a Russian non-governmental research organization. The organization, founded in 1987, is guided by the principles of Western polling bodies such as the World Association for Public Opinion Research and the European Society for Opinion and Marketing Research. It began conducting public opinion surveys in 1988. In 2016, the Russian Ministry of Justice put the Levada-Center on the register of NGOs acting as foreign agents, a designation with which the center disagrees.

Just last week, the Belfer Center at Harvard provided an excellent summary of recent polls conducted by the Levada-Center related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. We report here on the summary, and in addition, on another new poll from CNN. In a Levada-Center poll published in December 2021, 50 percent of Russians believed that the US and NATO countries started the problems in eastern Ukraine. Sixteen percent thought Ukraine was responsible. Only 4 percent chose Russia. In a March 2021 poll, 25 percent thought the DPR and LPR should become part of Russia while 28 percent thought they should become independent states. Ten percent said they should return to Ukraine on general terms. When asked a hypothetical question about whether Russia should engage in armed conflict on the side of the DPR/LPR if hostilities broke out, the Russian population split, 43 to 43 percent.

Another
hypothetical asked about how attitudes might change toward Putin in the event
of a full-scale war. Forty-two percent said attitudes among Russians toward
Putin would not change among the population, while 16 percent said it would
raise Putin’s standing, and 31 percent said it would cause dissatisfaction with
him. A March 2020 poll showed that 87 percent of Russians believed sanctions
had not created serious problems for them or their families.

A February 7–15 online CNN/Savanta ComRes poll in both Ukraine and Russia found that 36 percent of Russians agreed that it would be right for Russia to use force to reunite Russia and Ukraine (43 percent disagreed). In Ukraine, those responses were 13 and 73 percent, respectively. Another result should remind us to be wary of hypothetical questions. In the poll, 13 percent of Russian respondents thought the Kremlin was likely to initiate military action while 75 percent said this was unlikely. Forty-two percent of Ukrainians felt it was possible Russia would start a war; 45 percent there said that it was unlikely. In Ukraine, people were evenly divided, 43 to 43 percent, about a peaceful end to the tensions. Russians were more optimistic at 65 percent.

Sixty-nine percent in the Levada-Center’s January 2022 poll approved of the activities of Vladimir Putin while 29 percent disapproved, in line with findings since last summer. Approval of the Russian government looks different, with 53 percent approving of its activities and 44 percent disapproving. And in another question that will be familiar to Americans, 50 percent said Russia is moving in the right direction, while 39 percent said it was off on the wrong track. Attitudes toward the US are evenly divided — 45 percent had a positive view and 42 percent a negative one.

Polls can be a useful indicator and current ones can provide some context in terms of public perceptions of Putin generally and now of his actions, but the polls now cannot tell us how public opinion will evolve in the short and long term in Russia.

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