During the 2020 presidential
campaign, Joe Biden pledged days before the South Carolina Democratic primary that
he would nominate a Black woman to the Supreme Court. “I’m
looking forward to making sure there’s a black woman on the Supreme Court, to
make sure we, in fact, get every representation.” How important is it to
the general public that the nominee check those boxes? First, a little history.

Pollsters have been asking
about a woman on the high court since the earliest days of polling. In a 1938
Gallup question, 93 percent said they would like to see the next appointment go
to a man and only 20 percent a woman (the pollster allowed multiple responses
so the responses add to more than 100 percent). A few years later in 1945 when
Gallup rephrased the question, 47 percent said they would approve of a capable
woman on the Court, but 40 percent disapproved.

In an October 1971 Harris
poll, roughly equal majorities of men and women, 58 and 57 percent,
respectively, said they would like to see a woman on the Court “now.” In
another question, 69 percent of men and 63 percent of women said the country was
ready for a woman at that time or would be within five years.

A month before Ronald Reagan
announced Sandra Day O’Connor as his pick for the Court in 1981, CBS News and The
New York Times asked Americans whether he should appoint a woman, a man, or
whether it made no difference. The overwhelming majority, 73 percent, said the gender
of the nominee made no difference to them. A Gallup poll taken after Reagan’s announcement
put approval for a woman on the Court at 86 percent.

Since that time, pollsters
have asked the public occasionally — usually around the time of a retirement or
a death of a Justice — how they felt about a woman or a minority serving on the
Court.

When the questions were asked about appointing a woman to replace Sandra Day O’Connor, most Americans said it wasn’t necessary. When George W. Bush nominated John Roberts, about a third, 34 percent, in an ABC News/Washington Post poll said they were disappointed he did not name a woman (65 percent were not). Twenty-one percent told Gallup they were bothered by his decision, but most (77 percent) were not. In other pollsters’ questions, large majorities said one’s gender identity didn’t matter for admission to the high court.

Starting in 2005 and again in 2009 and 2010, Gallup asked people how essential it is that the next justice be a woman, a Black person, or a Hispanic person. In the latest asking from 2010, across each identity, between 1 and 4 percent said it was essential, between 13 and 20 percent a good idea but not essential, and more than seven in 10 said it didn’t matter. By this time, it was clear Americans felt comfortable with qualified women and minorities serving on the Court. In 2020, South Carolina was a crucial primary win for Joe Biden’s limping campaign, and Biden’s statement may have endeared him to the state’s large population of Black primary voters. But most voters have moved beyond checking gender, racial, or ethnic boxes for the Supreme Court.

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