Trees Don’t Grow Tall Forever

A report from Fox South Carolina. “Greenville continues to be a relocation destination as experts predict an 11% increase in home sales this year. ‘We’re going to be in a seller’s market for decades, decades,’ said Thomas Cheves, a Coldwell Banker Caine realtor.”

From WKRN in Tennessee. “It’s a constant cycle: we build, they come.New data from Apartment Insiders shows Nashville is projected to have the highest percentage of growth in apartment inventory in 2022 compared to all other U.S. markets. About 21,000 units are currently under construction in Nashville, with about half being delivered this year. Apartment construction in Nashville is the highest it’s ever been and has been on a steady growth pattern since 2018. ‘Nashville has proven that if apartments are built, people will lease them,’ said Joel Sanders CEO, Apartment Insiders.”

The Destin Log in Florida. “Apartments seem to be popping up everywhere in Destin, but also going up is the rent. ‘The new year has brought some much-needed relief to the rental market,’ said Rob Warnock, senior research associate at Apartment List. Across the nation, rent prices fell 0.2% last month, representing the country’s first measurable price decline since 2020. ‘This, of course, comes after a period of tremendous rent growth, when prices rose nearly 18% in less than a year. So, prices remain high, but have turned a corner.’”

From WFLA. “Rent prices around the Tampa Bay area are going up as fast as new apartment complexes. University of South Florida economics instructor Chris Jones says the number of new apartment complexes being built will eventually saturate the market and help with the correction. ‘I don’t see this as a new normal. Do I think we’re going to see a massive 30% to 40% contraction on home values to the degree back in 2008-09? No,’ Jones said. ‘I don’t think it’s going to dip that much, but 10% to 15% over the next 24 months, I think, is real.’”

From WGRZ. “The loss of some protection from eviction and foreclosure in New York is likely to have far-reaching impacts on families at the edge of homelessness. ‘Renters have expressed for a long time now, they are simply waiting to evict, and we know half a million New Yorkers are behind in rent,’ said Luanne Firestone, the executive director at Family Promise of WNY.”

The San Francisco Examiner in California. “Just two years ago, San Francisco was one of the fastest-growing cities in the country. Since then, it’s become one of the weakest by almost every economic metric. ‘There was a big drop in migration, and that really hasn’t come back yet’ said Ted Egan, San Francisco’s chief economist, noting that strong data on pandemic population change doesn’t yet exist. ‘So you wouldn’t expect rents to come back.’ Prices for purchasing single-family homes and condos are also ‘weaker in some places, but not as bad as in rents,’ according Egan.”

From Mansion Global. “A sprawling megamansion within the upmarket coastal Californian enclave of Malibu has just slashed its price by $30 million—though it remains the most expensive home on the market in the oceanside city. Now asking $85 million, the wedge-shaped estate is being sold by David Saperstein, who debuted the vast compound on the market in early 2020 for $115 million, records show.”

The Coeur d’Alene Press in Idaho. “It was just last year The Wall Street Journal and Realtor.com announced that Coeur d’Alene was the nation’s top housing market. Little has changed. The Lake City remains among the country’s most in-demand places to live and it’s not expected to cool off this year. Lindsay Allen, CAR president, agreed that even in the generally slower winter housing market, it’s busy. It’s not what it was a year ago, buyers are not as aggressive, and there have been some price reductions, but ‘it’s still crazy with competition among buyers.’”

“Chad Oakland of Northwest Realty Group said he doesn’t think the housing market can remain as it is. As a friend told him, ‘trees don’t grow tall forever.’ ‘Something needs to happen. We can all agree on that,’ Oakland said.”

From Bloomberg. “The era of historically low interest rates, which inflated Canadians’ wealth and facilitated their spending, is coming to an end. Home prices have risen 41% since policy makers slashed interest rates to the emergency lows in March 2020. Total private and public debt outside of the financial sector, meanwhile, has risen by more than C$1 trillion ($802 billion) to C$8.1 trillion through June last year.”

“That represents about 345% of gross domestic product, the sixth highest among the more than 40 rich economies tracked by the Bank for International Settlements. How the economy will react to higher borrowing costs remains unknown. ‘We can’t guarantee a soft landing, but decisions made by the Bank of Canada very soon will go a long way toward determining whether we stand a chance,’ Derek Holt, an economist at Scotiabank, said in a report to investors. ‘Canada is indeed at a fork in the road.’”

From Reuters. “Property bubbles in parts of Europe may force banking regulators to put curbs on lending and cool a market that has been growing rapidly despite a pandemic-induced recession, European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said. ‘The situation of overvaluations in certain residential markets is becoming more and more pervasive, and this is a source of concern for us,’ de Guindos told a financial conference. ‘We have to start to take into consideration the possibility of implementing again macroprudential measures in the banking space,’ he added.”

From Bloomberg. “China’s third largest developer by sales received its second credit downgrade in as many days, highlighting concerns over builders once perceived as safer bets. Fitch said Thursday that Sunac’s access to debt capital markets is ‘largely closed.’ The builder sold shares at a 15% discount earlier this month, sending its shares and dollar bonds plunging. The firm subsequently announced it had no short-term plan to issue any further shares.”