A report from the Los Angeles Times in California. “The city of Bradbury just saw its priciest sale in years when Lynsi Snyder sold her Mediterranean mansion for $16.25 million. It chalks up as a loss for Snyder, who bought the nearly 19,000-square-foot home for $17.21 million in 2012. She first flipped it onto the market for $19.8 million in 2017 before dropping the price to $16.8 million earlier this year, records show.”
From Marketplace. “‘I feel like the frenzy from buyers is pausing a little bit,’ said Matthew Hilton, a real estate agent in the Tampa Bay area of Florida. To be clear, he said the market in his area is still very competitive, but he thinks people are less willing to get into bidding wars. Homebuying typically slows down at this time of year, said real estate agent Salinda Riebow, who’s also based near Tampa. When things pick up again next year? ‘I think we’re going to start seeing a little bit of a cool down,’ she said.”
The Northern Kentucky Tribune. “Kentucky REALTORS® expect an increase in sales volume in the next year even as the market continues to turn buyer-friendly. ‘We will get much needed supply as some homeowners take advantage of the recent price appreciation and list their properties,’ said Vidur Dhanda, author of the survey. ‘Additionally, with the end of forbearance, homeowners struggling with mortgage payments would also prefer selling their homes and cashing in their increased home equity.’”
“36% of the Kentucky REALTORS® reported that buyers were holding back because of concerns about the economy, with 82% saying that buyers were not rushing to beat mortgage rate increases. Dhanda said, ‘A combination of concerns about the economy and affordability challenges exacerbated by sustained appreciation in home prices over the last 18 months will temper homebuyer enthusiasm. Price cutting by sellers will further moderate house price appreciation.’”
“In the latest issue of the Home Purchase Sentiment Index, which tabulates national consumer sentiment, Fannie Mae reported that consumers expressed ‘their greatest economic pessimism in 10 years.’”
From Mortgage News Daily. “‘House price levels continue to rise but the rapid pace is curtailing through October,’ said Will Doerner, Ph.D., Supervisory Economist in FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics. ‘The large market appreciations seen this spring peaked in July and have been cooling this fall with annual trends slowing over the last four consecutive months.’”
The Globe and Mail. “The Financial Times details a difficult year for bond markets. ‘Global bond markets are on course for their worst year since 1999 … The Barclays global aggregate bond index — a broad benchmark of $68 trillion of sovereign and corporate debt — has delivered a negative return of 4.8 per cent so far in 2021… ‘ ‘We shouldn’t be too surprised that bonds are a bad investment when inflation is running at 6 per cent,’ said James Athey, a portfolio manager at Aberdeen Standard Investments. ‘The bad news for bond investors is that next year looks tricky too. We have the potential for a further shock if central banks move quicker than expected, and I don’t think [riskier bonds] are particularly attractively priced.’”
From News.com.au. “Have we reached peak China?Its population has reached a tipping point. Its economy is set to follow. And Beijing may soon be desperate to distract an increasingly disgruntled public. The number of births across China reportedly fell 20 per cent to about 10 million in 2021. The number of deaths is expected to have been significantly higher.”
“Unregulated property investors have been derailed. Megacorporations such as Evergrande are on the brink of collapse. And anxiety is spilling over into bond markets. Now international analysts are worried China’s economy may be in for a hard landing. ‘The nation’s growth strategy rests on four pillars,’ says Professor Kent Matthews. ‘Three are frequently talked about – infrastructure, exports and consumers – while the fourth is only whispered in official circles – and that is the property sector.’”
“And that’s in crisis. Major property speculators such as Evergrande found themselves out on a limb after Beijing suddenly imposed limitations on borrowing. Cash flows in the construction sector and real estate markets suddenly dried up as overexposed investors struggled to meet repayments.”
“How China adapts to Chairman Xi’s economic thoughts is yet to be seen. ‘These economic disruptions are fueling a general wariness about China’s outlook,’ says Asia analyst Daniel Rosen. ‘(But) financial analysts are self-censoring their research for fear of offending officials by telling a truthful but pessimistic story; this has led to mistrust and uncertainty in markets.’”
The Daily Telegraph in Australia. “Property prices have been falling in a handful of NSW suburbs since the Covid pandemic hit, defying a pattern of skyrocketing prices in the rest of the market. The price drops meant home seekers who purchased in the current market would save up to $176,000 compared to buyers who purchased their homes before the country’s first hard lockdown in March 2020.”
“The suburb with the biggest drop in prices was the North Coast suburb of Dunbogan, about 38km south of Port Macquarie. Houses sold before the pandemic started had a median price of about $501,000, but the median has since slipped to $325,000. There was a similar mix of housing in Morriset, south of Lake Macquarie, which had a $129,000 drop in prices. The median price of houses in the suburb is now $420,000. It had been $549,000.”