Everyone Is Trying To Time The Top Of The Market

A report from the Erie Times-News. “November bought some relief for buyers as median sale prices fell 2.9% to $330,000, the largest monthly decline since the beginning of the pandemic, according to the November National Housing Report from Re/Max.”

The New York Post. “Leonardo DiCaprio’s former West Village bachelor pad just got another price chop.It’s now asking $7.5 million — far less than the $10 million DiCaprio paid for the sleek pad back in 2014. (If that sounds bad, just think about the penthouse triplex. It once asked $50 million but last sold for $14 million.) DiCaprio sold his bachelor pad for $8 million to Michael Viola.That means DiCaprio took a $2 million hit on his investment while Michael is now listing for half a million less than what he paid for the property in 2016.”

From Eastsider LA in California. “Here are some examples, followed by a breakdown by neighborhood, of recent price cuts on homes, condos, apartments and other Eastside properties.”

From Bisnow Boston in Massachusetts. “The Boston hotel market had an occupancy rate of 58% and an average daily rate of approximately $210 while revenue per available room, or RevPAR, was $121, down 36% from November 2019, according to preliminary data. Boston remains at the back of the hotel recovery pack, along with other major metros like New York City, San Francisco and Washington, D.C., said Pinnacle Advisory Group Vice President Sebastian Colella.”

“New supply injects new demand but also negatively impacts hotel performance metrics, Colella said. ‘We are experiencing above-average supply growth at a time when demand is extremely low,’ he said.”

From Postmedia in Canada. “As Ottawa takes baby steps towards addressing the role of money laundering in Canadian real estate, Postmedia columnist Terry Glavin wrote about a little-noticed story uncovered last month by Coastal Front, an independent Vancouver investigative journalism outlet. For years, it’s apparently been routine for the City of Vancouver to accept property tax payments of up to $50,000 via literal bags of cash. ‘There was no regulation requiring staff to report any of the weird transactions to anyone,’ wrote Glavin, noting that the trend was only noticed after a city councillor bumped into a man at city hall carrying a shopping bag full of loose money.”

From Mortgage Professional Australia. “The surge in property listings has started to balance the market and ease buyer urgency, resulting in reduced prices from vendors who are hoping to get a sale before the year ends. Properties in both Sydney and Melbourne have soared in recent months, according to Domain. The Parramatta region saw the biggest jump in November, recording an 88% increase from its number of listings in September.”

“Meanwhile, Melbourne’s inner south – Hampton, Brighton and Sandringham – experienced the most increases at 67%. With lessened competition for homes, more than one in seven vendors in Sydney’s premium suburbs were found to have sliced asking prices by $203,315, Domain reported. ‘During lockdown, the biggest issue we had was that hardly any homes were on the market, which is what drove prices to the ridiculous level they reached … then heaps more stock came on to the market, which probably softened things a little,’ said Mark Vella, director at Starr Partners Blacktown.”

“As such, Domain said unsold homes over the Christmas period would have to be ‘appropriately priced’ as it competes with another batch of new homes in 2022. More agents are set to handle transactions over the holidays to accommodate the sudden increase in supply. Ray Fayad, group principal of Laing+Simmons Parramata, Granville and Oatlands, said buyers and sellers are keen to get deals done over the quieter period. ‘It’s come in just before Christmas, so we’ll be rolling our listings all the way through. We won’t be taking a break … which is not normal, but I think we’re going to have to,’ Fayad said. ‘Everyone is trying to time the top of the market.’”

From Bloomberg. “A top performing distressed debt investor says he’s avoiding China Evergrande Group, citing risks from the developer’s heavily discounted asset disposals and liabilities that may not be fully reflected in its balance sheet. Zhang Zhijun, chairman of private fund manager Beijing DingNuo Investment Management Co., said his firm has not bought Evergrande bonds since May after its previous holdings matured.”

“‘We once tried to gauge the recovery ratio of Evergrande onshore bonds, but we gave up buying them as it has excessive wealth management products and financing off its balance-sheet,’ Zhang said. ‘Mutual fund houses and asset managers are dumping large amounts of onshore property developer bonds, which quickly slumped to record low levels.’”

“He said he questions whether healthier property firms would be capable of acquiring projects from distressed developers. ‘The sales downturn is a common issue across the sector, for both state-owned and private firm.’”

The Epoch Times. “Recently, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) announced that the two highest-ranking authorities of Guangzhou were removed from their positions for ‘the massive removal of Banyan trees in the city,’ as reported by local media. However, analysts have suggested that the two officials’ connection with the distressed real estate developer Evergrande may be the actual reason for the unconventional dismissal.”

“At the 60th session of the 15th Standing Committee of the Guangzhou Municipal Council, the committee announced that it had ‘accepted Mayor Wen Guohui’s resignation request.’ Furthermore, on the same day, the CCP approved the ‘removal of Zhang Shuofu’s position as Guangzhou’s CCP Secretary’ and that ‘he would be given other duties,’ as reported by the Guangdong provincial media.”

“In an EBC news program, Taiwanese news commentator Li Zhenghao suggested that it’s highly implausible for the CCP to remove its own officials ‘just for cutting down some trees in the local area,’ and the dismissal was clearly affected by the Evergrande crisis.”

“‘Simply put, the Evergrande is too big to fall,’ Li said, ‘With trillions of yuan, interconnecting hundreds to thousands of banks, the Evergrande crisis could generate a huge domino effect covering the entire financial sector of China, rendering one-third of all bank loans into bad debt.’”