Conventional
wisdom tells us that Democrats spend less on defense than Republicans. But is
this true? A review of historical defense budget trends shows there is more at
play in determining overall investments in defense than just which party is in
the White House.

To see how the budget for the
Department of Defense (DoD) shifts as administrations come and go, this
analysis converts the first and last defense budgets of each administration
into fiscal year 2021 dollars to support a comparison of 15 budgets. It starts
with the first defense budget crafted by the Carter administration in 1978 and
includes seven budgets from Democratic administrations and eight from
Republican administrations.

These 15 budgets support the common
perception that Democrats tend to spend less on defense. On average,
Republication administrations increase defense spending by $46.3 billion when
they take power and Democrats decrease defense spending by $8.2 billion when
they transition into power.

Additionally, the last defense budget
of all three Democratic administrations provided DoD less funding than the
first budget of the following administration, all of which were Republican. On
the other hand, three Republican budgets heading into a transition were higher
than the first budget of the next administration, while one was lower.
Interestingly, the last defense budget of the Republican Bush administration
was lower than the first budget of the Democratic Obama administration — the
anomaly in this case, as it was the last defense budget before the Budget
Control Act went into effect and the year in which the Overseas Contingency
Operations budget was at its height.

When looking at the change within
administrations themselves, budgets have tended to decrease during Democratic
administrations and increase during Republican administrations. The average
shift within a Democratic administration was a decline of $22.8 billion. The
shift within Republication administrations averages an increase of $53.4
billion from the first to the last defense budget.

However, increases and decreases were
split between the parties, plainly showing that party does not override
circumstances. Overall, four administrations expanded DoD’s budget from their
first to last fiscal years, and three administrations reduced it. Within these
camps, two Republican administrations increased the budget and two decreased
it. In the same vein, two Democratic administrations raised DoD’s funding, and
another shrunk it over their tenure.

But this isn’t the end of the story.
The fact that the average increase or decrease of the budget within one
administration is more than $20 billion for both parties and that both parties
increased and decreased funding demonstrate that circumstances factor greatly
into the level of the budget. For example, the greatest jump in this data set
was not between administrations but within one — the Bush administration, due
to the ramifications of 9/11.

Further, instead of seeing the largest
budget included in this analysis enacted by a Republican administration, it was
actually the Obama administration in fiscal year 2010, showing again that party
is not the lone factor. However, this data point also highlights the reality
that first budgets are heavily influenced by the previous administration. We
see this with the Biden administration and can expect more sweeping changes to
come next year. Further, administrations also inherit circumstances. The Obama
administration inherited a troop surge in Iraq, which hindered its ability to
decrease the budget as quickly as it may have wished.

So, what does this mean for the future of the defense budget? Over the Biden administration’s tenure, its defense budget is likely to decline in real terms as the administration prioritizes other areas like climate change, infrastructure, and public health. The placeholder numbers for the discretionary DoD topline released by the Office of Management and Budget signal this and also project defense budgets that do not keep pace with inflation. It is time to start considering how to best adjust strategy to a reduced level of spending. With fewer resources, DoD will have to alter the way it does business, do less, or accept greater risk. Probably all three. If the US is to successfully navigate future national security challenges, it must contend with the realities of dwindling funding for defense and the tough choices it will need to make.

Emily Coletta is a research assistant in AEI’s Foreign and Defense Policy department.

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