Rather Than There Being A Housing Shortage, It Increasingly Looks Like The Pendulum Is Swinging In The Other Direction

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “For the fifth time this year, home prices in Ada County have reached record-setting highs. Even if it benefits him with higher commissions, Rick Gehrke, a real estate agent who sells in both Ada and Canyon counties, said he doesn’t like a red-hot market. ‘Buyers sometimes make snap decisions to buy a home based on the pressure they feel to grab a place that may not remain on the market long. They’ve got to jump at something before it’s gone, and then they have buyer’s remorse and feel like they overpaid,’ he said.”

“Chapman University’s economic forecast has a decidedly different warning for the California economy: There may be no housing shortage. Chapman economist Jim Doti, he sees a chance of ‘severe weakness’ for the state’s real estate markets as demand for housing dries up as California’s population growth comes to a near halt. ‘Fewer people translates to fewer homes,’ says Chapman’s report. ‘Rather than there being a housing shortage in California as many people claim, it increasingly looks like the pendulum is swinging in the other direction.’”

“Most real estate experts in South Florida agree that the condominium market has cooled — at least for big, new, luxury product. Peter Zalewski, founder of Miami-based Condo Vultures Realty, says condo development potential persists in Pompano Beach and other South Florida markets, but not south of the airport, where more buyers are foreign nationals. That area is ‘where the sales have crashed,’ Zalewski said.”

“In a sign of the times, Manhattan’s priciest condo project this year doesn’t expect to crack $1 billion in sales. Facing an oversupply of new development condo units in the borough, this year’s most expensive condo projects have set the pricing bar far lower than in 2018, according to a TRD analysis. The stark contrast reflects what real estate agents and others have been saying: prices need to drop to interest Manhattan’s buyers, given the plethora of choices available to them. But some developers may find themselves handcuffed to out-of-touch prices because of constraints imposed by lenders or partners.”

“Every year, the Urban Land Institute examines an important element of the market for readers of Boston Agent magazine. Despite an overall positive economic outlook, affordability problems threaten the residential market. The ULI report referred to residential real estate as ‘the great unraveling’ and noted that ‘housing is a mess and getting worse.’”

“Prices actually fell in hot Alexandria and Arlington County, Virginia. The number of sales in Arlington County was down 12.6% from a year ago, and down 25.8% in Alexandria. And the median selling price in Arlington County, at $537,000, was down 4.9% from a year ago. The median selling price in Alexandria was $539,900, down 2.5%.”

“There aren’t many homes for sale for under $200,000 in metro Denver these days, but more than 5 percent of those that exist went for either considerably less or more than the initial tag. Price reductions were more common during October than has been the case in many recent years. This graphic depicts zip codes where the lists were lowed in October — something that occurred from 15.9 percent to 60.6 percent of the time. Well over half of the list prices were reduced in 80125, long a popular suburban destination; Roxborough Park, Highlands Ranch and Littleton are among its communities.”

“The $460,000 median sales price for Seattle condos in November remained unchanged from the prior month, though it was slightly less compared to last November by 3.16%. All areas of the the city experienced year-over-year declines in the median sales price with the exception of West Seattle.”

“The Toll Brothers are building the Stonebrook development near Spanish Springs, where homes have a more favorable price compared to other luxury homes that they have built in the past. Phillip and Diane Williams moved from Northern California to retire in what is now their new home. ‘The houses are also roughly 30 thousand dollars less expensive for the same house in Reno,’ said Williams. ‘7 to 8 hundred thousand where we came from, for a basic home. For something like this? Oh no, this would be more, this would be 9 hundred thousand.’”

“Agent Magda Mo hosted several open house events for this six-bedroom house in Markham to connect with buyers. In less than a week an out-of-town buyer checked out the home online, then in person, and tabled a $3.06-million bid. Her listing was one of four nearby that were on the market in early September, Ms. Mo said. ‘Only one of them since then has sold and the others are still on the market. That’s why I said to the sellers, we had to price this right, otherwise, these homes do sit.’”

“The latest official figures show prices in Dublin, which has seen the largest increase in residential construction, actually dropped 1.5 per cent in the 12 months to October. Prices were down 7.1 per cent in Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown, which is traditionally seen as a bellwether for the market. That compares to a 1.3 per cent fall in Dublin in the year to September and an almost 7 per cent fall in Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown in the same period, an indication that the fall in prices has sharpened.”

“Dubai property magnate Hussain Sajwani has repeated calls for an immediate halt to construction, warning the city faces ‘disaster’ if oversupply continues. ‘Nothing has changed,’ Sajwani told a CNBC-moderated panel. ‘The glut of supply we have, or we are going to have, will have an impact on the market. It’s the greediness of the developers,’ Sajwani said, pointing the finger at his competitors.”

“When Beijing introduced price caps for almost two-thirds of apartments in late 2016 as part of a program to provide homes for millions of middle-class citizens to buy, an array of cheap condominiums began springing up on the city’s outskirts. Three years on, the cramped, poor-quality units that are far from anywhere lie mostly empty. Beijing Yinghai, a project that’s still partially under construction, has tiny windows that don’t let in sufficient daylight, limited parking options and a huge electricity substation right next door. Wang, who declined to give his first name for fear of reprisal from the developer, is one unhappy buyer. ‘I used to feel lucky, thinking I could upgrade my living circumstances with fewer costs,’ said Wang. ‘But some things, like the windows, make me feel it’s public housing for the poor.’”

“One by one, developers have started to cut costs, leading to a ‘crazy price war,’ according to a sales executive for one of the projects. He estimates prices have come down by as much as 10% in some instances.”

“A Brassall, Queensland townhouse has sold after returning to the market as a mortgagee listing. The abode sold for $210,000. It has been on and off the market since 2016, with its latest asking price slashed $45,000 on its initial expectations. First listed in October 2016 for $275,000, the asking price had been slashed 5 times to where it most recently sat, $229,000. Last sold in 2009, the home transacted for $234,000, a marginal increase on the 2004 sale price of $210,000.”

“Financial troubles are mounting for Fotis Dulos as he faces a second foreclosure. Danbury Savings Bank is foreclosing on his New Canaan property at 61 Sturbridge Hill Road that Fotis Dulos was developing when his estranged wife went missing on May 24. In court documents filed Monday, Danbury Savings Bank claim Fotis Dulos and his company, Fore Group, are responsible for a $2.8 million note. The bank is seeking to take possession of the property or have the note immediately paid.”

“‘It is simple. The borrower isn’t paying the loan and the bank needs to get its money whether it is Dulos or anyone else,’ Ross Fingold, of Stokesbury, Shipman and Fingold, LLC, said on behalf of Danbury Savings Bank. The foreclosure ‘may result in a public sale of the residence,’ he said. ‘We have been patient. It is time to proceed forward.’ Fotis Dulos is also facing foreclosure on the Farmington home where he has been living and maintains an office. His mother-in-law, Gloria Farber, is suing him for $2.5 million in what she claims are unpaid loans and is also foreclosing on the 14,000-square-foot Farmington home that his company built in 2012.”