Since March 2020, we’ve covered many different aspects of the
public’s reaction to the pandemic. Between the two of us, we have probably read
every COVID-19 poll released since early 2020, but we can’t remember seeing
changes as dramatic as the ones we’ve seen in the past few weeks.

Early in the pandemic, several pollsters started asking people whether the worst of COVID-19 was still ahead or whether it was behind us. We examined this long-running trend in the latest AEI Polling Report. In a CNN/SSRS poll from April 2020, 80 percent believed the worst was still ahead and only 17 percent said the worst was behind us. The last time they asked the question in March this year, those responses had practically reversed — only 19 percent said the worst was still ahead and 77 percent the worst was behind. The widespread availability of vaccines and the resulting decline in cases contributed to the optimism.

But now we have seen a rapid and stunning reversal. In late June, Gallup reported that Americans were “feeling increasingly optimistic about the coronavirus pandemic.” Yet from June to July in its monthly averages, the Gallup poll recorded a 49 percentage point drop in the belief that the coronavirus situation was getting better! Between early July and early August, the Harris Poll COVID-19 tracker recorded a 25-percentage point increase in the belief that the worst was still ahead. Ipsos also reported an extraordinary change this week based on a tracker it created to monitor changes in consumer adaptations during the virus: “Nearly one third of Americans has undergone a massive perceptual shift in the past month, as the Delta variant has taken hold.” In the Axios/Ipsos weekly panel studies, fewer than half (48 percent) in their June 25–28 survey said they were very or somewhat familiar with the Delta variant; nearly three-quarters were familiar with it in their latest poll from July 30–August 2. In the August 7–10 Economist/YouGov poll, 64 percent said cases were increasing nationally. Forty-one percent in another question said the pandemic is going to get worse, while 11 percent said we were in the worst part now. About a quarter (27 percent) said the worst is behind us.

We are beginning to see changes in Americans’ behaviors as more of them say the risk of returning to normal activities, particularly indoor ones, is increasing. We can’t know at this point how long the new pessimism will last, but it’s clear that Delta has frightened many people.

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