Turbulent politics and a deep shakeup in Brasilia have many concerned for the stability of Jair Bolsonaro’s administration. The stampede of ministerial exits started early this week with the resignation of foreign minister Ernesto Araújo. The defense minister followed suit shortly thereafter. By day’s end, six ministers had either resigned or moved to new posts — about one-third of Bolsonaro’s cabinet.

Perhaps more concerning than the political overhaul was what transpired one day after the ministerial shakeup: the leadership restructuring within Brazil’s armed forces — occurring, no less, one day before the 57th anniversary of the military coup. The heads of all three major branches — the army, the navy, and the air force — resigned en masse, purportedly over concerns for their independence, handing Bolsonaro the opportunity to handpick their successors. Brazil witnessed something analogous only once before — in 1977, under the turbulent rule of military dictator Ernesto Geisel. This has left some Brazil watchers fretting that an insecure Bolsonaro could be laying the foundations “for his own January 6.”

In reality, however, a deep cabinet
shuffle — with its potential to bring a strategic shift — is likely just what
the Bolsonaro administration needs at this critical moment of the pandemic and
in the coming electoral environment.

First, Bolsonaro encounters a new administration in Washington, which no longer looks to Brasilia as its partner of choice in South America. The new foreign minister, Carlos França, a relatively unknown entity in Washington, could get a new look from a Biden administration that was wary of his predecessor. The new defense minister, Walter Braga Netto, is a well-known general in the Brazilian Army who understands proper civil-military relations and is capable of furthering US-Brazil defense and security cooperation, an area of importance for both countries.

Second, the recent dismissal of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s corruption conviction on narrow technical grounds — thus making him eligible to run for president again — has brought further clarity to Bolsonaro’s reelection efforts in 2022. Lula’s enduring popularity makes it likely that Bolsonaro and his political rival will advance to a runoff election next year (although Lula’s victory is far from a fait accompli). More importantly, the probable entrance of a popular candidate like Lula in the presidential race gives Bolsonaro even more reason to care about the actual performance of his administration. To this end, dealing with the nightmarish pandemic situation in the country and ensuring a diversified portfolio of vaccines should be top priorities for the new cabinet.

Third, the political shakeup has more to do with COVID-19 and Brazil’s performance during the pandemic than any preparation for political machinations more than a year out from an election. Over a recent seven-day period, Brazil accounted for 26 percent of the world’s COVID-related deaths, while many of its state hospital systems are on the verge of collapse under the weight of the contagious P.1 variant from Manaus. It should be no wonder that Bolsonaro is under significant pressure to do more to fight COVID-19 and Brazil’s new variants.

Fourth, rather than select loyalists to head the army, navy, and air force, Bolsonaro largely tapped the next generals in line. Rather than subordinate themselves to the government, these figures see themselves as subordinate to Brazil’s constitution. Further, the large number of military figures in Bolsonaro’s administration — up to and including the country’s vice president, Hamilton Mourão — have brought, if anything, a moderating influence on its policies. In other words, if there is a reservoir of support for Bolsonaro within the military that should be cause for concern, it emanates from the lower rungs rather than the high command, which appears keenly aware of the reputational damage it suffered during the dictatorship and eager to assert its loyalty to the constitution.

This is not to dismiss concern for Brazil’s democratic institutions and the observance of healthy civil-military relations. Indeed, some in Bolsonaro’s orbit fear a contested election environment. In the past, supporters of the president have called for a military takeover of Congress if he is removed from office. Already in 2016, a violent mob stormed Brazil’s Congress demanding a return to the country’s military regime. And in a recent letter, the new defense minister Braga Netto spoke favorably of the military dictatorship.

However, as I have written on multiple occasions, Brazil is a largely consolidated democracy with generally robust institutions. The judiciary has served as a major check on Bolsonaro’s ambitions. Municipal elections in November 2020 saw major defeats for Bolsonaro’s preferred candidates with little pushback from the president. And a renewed effort to impeach Bolsonaro in the Congress will likely induce more compromise as opposition parties smell an opportunity to extract concessions and move Bolsonaro to the center. At this point, predictions of military intervention, or a full-blown return to Brazil’s erstwhile military regime, seem premature and overwrought.

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