The recent New York Post headline blaring that Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin is on his way out is likely false. Citing an interview with political scientist Valery Solovey in the tabloid The Sun, the Post claimed Parkinson’s disease will bring Putin’s two decade rule to an end. Specifically, Putin is to announce plans for his resignation in January 2021.

Solovey, who has a history of wrongly predicting Putin’s departure for health reasons, did not provide more than conjecture for his claims. Reacting to the news, the Kremlin denied both that Putin has poor health and that he is planning to resign in the near future. Regardless, even if he is seriously ill, it is unlikely that Putin would resign during the height of the coronavirus pandemic, an economic recession, and the start of a new US presidential administration. The power vacuum could throw his country into further turmoil as his successor struggles to legitimize their rule amidst the chaos.

More than just a succession crisis, Putin’s sudden resignation would threaten a complete regime collapse. In that scenario, the future of his allies and the current Russian elite is uncertain, with his decades of work consolidating a “vertical of power” upended.

The Post and Sun (and others) cited recent legal proposals under consideration in the Duma — one to make an ex-president immune from prosecution after leaving office (strengthening existing legislation), and one that would grant a lifetime seat in the Russian Senate after completing a presidential term — as evidence to bolster the claim Putin is on his way out. But this legislation is not the groundwork for Putin’s imminent departure. Rather, the provisions cited were already approved with the constitutional amendments over the summer that are only now being drafted into law.

Other than former President Dmitri Medvedev (who served at Putin’s pleasure), every previous Russian or Soviet leader has left office unexpectedly — Putin’s health up until then does not matter. Either he will rule until death, or he will be forced out unexpectedly. Stalin, Brezhnev, Andropov, and Chernenko — all died in office. Khrushchev was ousted, and Gorbachev’s and Yeltsin’s resignation announcements came as Christmas and New Year’s surprises.

Only one thing is certain: The first mention of the Russian leader’s departure will not come from Western tabloids. In a world where millions of users on Twitter circulate and believe headlines if they appear as “trending,” such assertions enjoy a veneer of respectability. They should not. As Donald Trump likes to say, they are “fake news.”

Lance Kokonos is a research associate in AEI’s Foreign and Defense Policy department.

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