A report from the Wall Street Journal on Florida. “The Tampa Bay housing market had been softening even before Helene struck. About half the homes listed for sale in Tampa experienced price reductions as of Sept. 9, the third highest share of all U.S. major metropolitan areas. Dustin Pentz bought his home 10 years ago, and was one of the lucky few to avoid flooding. That is until Hurricane Helene. When police blocked his car from entering the neighborhood, he paddleboarded his way home to assess the damage. ‘This neighborhood’s amazing, great schools. But no one wants to deal with this all the time,’ said Pentz. ‘It sucks because no one wants to live here anymore. There are so many houses for sale and no one’s buying.’”
“The area’s affordability, once a large part of its appeal, is also waning as insurance premiums soar. Jacob McFadden was paying $880 a year to insure his home when he bought it in 2020. That amount has since almost quadrupled, to $3,300. Premiums will likely increase again now. ‘I don’t know how much longer I’m going to do this waterfront living,’ McFadden said, standing in front of his home with a wheelbarrow and his home’s contents scattered around the front yard. ‘This may be the end.’”
The Washington Post. “Since March 2023, a representative from Shellpoint Mortgages has called Gregory Briscoe about twice a day nearly every day. By now, he doesn’t bother picking up the phone; he knows the company will be on the other end. They’ll ask him to pay the delinquent $101,000 mortgage on his Trinidad rowhouse, which he fell behind on during the beginning of the pandemic when his handyman work fell through. Briscoe scraped together the meager funds from other contract jobs, but even after months eating a diet of ramen noodles, he said he couldn’t catch up on his debt. ‘I don’t have the money. I don’t know what you want me to do,’ he’d tell the Shellpoint representatives.”
“In October 2022, Briscoe had applied for the city’s Homeowner Assistance Fund. Briscoe was approved for funds in June of 2023, according to application files The Washington Post reviewed, but he has never received the money to pay off his mortgage. His $50,000 delinquency has doubled since then. Shellpoint has sent Briscoe notices threatening foreclosure for more than a year, he says, and he’s started to ask family and friends if they have an extra bed or couch for him. In the past week, he has started stuffing his clothes into bags he finds on the street and taking them to a nearby storage facility.”
KGW8 in Oregon. “On Monday afternoon inside the Portland Building, the city attempted to auction off six abandoned properties spanning Southeast and North Portland neighborhoods. Many of them are not only an eyesore, but have become a burden for neighbors; bringing squatters, rodents and other safety issues to the neighborhoods. The 87th Avenue property received no bids — leaving that neighborhood to keep living with its side effects. The minimum bid set by the city was for $206,010. It was previously up for auction in April after the city foreclosed in Oct. 2023. ‘Cause nobody wants to buy it. Look at it … it makes me extremely angry,’ said Sharon who lives next to one of the auctioned properties. The home there caught fire numerous times, and barely a remnant of the structure still stood among piles of trash and old mattresses filling the yard. Anyone could see the years of neglect — and smell them, too. ‘It’s been a garbage dump for at least three years now,’ said Sharon said.”
ABC 6 Action News. “A Bel Air mansion that’s on sale for more than $21 million has become the latest high-end property in Southern California to be covered in graffiti. The mansion’s pink exterior has been defaced by taggers, but does not appear any squatters have taken up residence in the 7,000-square-foot home. Eyewitness News reached out to the realtor for the property to figure out when the graffiti activity began and what’s being done to keep any vandals out. The Bel Air property isn’t the first multi-million dollar mansion in the region to be hit by graffiti in recent weeks. Two such mansions in the Hollywood Hills have seen similar activity. Two suspects were arrested last week on suspicion of vandalizing at least one of those Hollywood Hills mansions.”
Bisnow on California. “‘The recent rate cut is unlikely to have a material impact on San Francisco office prices through the end of the year,’ Ryan Miller, an analyst at Green Street, told Bisnow. ‘Many office buyers are still paying cash, getting seller financing or assuming an existing loan. Banks that have a substantial concentration in the office sector are unlikely to turn the lending spigot back on again until they work through a good chunk of underwater assets.’ Mid-Market is among the neighborhoods with a high inventory of distressed office assets, including 1455 Market St., where one of 2024’s biggest transactions closed. Los Angeles-based REIT Hudson Pacific Properties acquired its partner’s stake in the building for $95 per SF, an 80% discount from when the property sold in 2015, according to CBRE.”
NECN in Massachusetts. “Mayor Michelle Wu is sharing details about her proposal to balance Boston’s budget and the need to shore up decreasing revenue from commercial property taxes. Wu’s proposal involves a three-year tax increase for commercial properties. She says this is an alternative to increasing residential property taxes. ‘If our residents were to have a sudden shock or increase in housing costs, that would be incredibly disruptive,’ Wu said. Evan Horowitz, leader of Tuft University’s Center for State Policy Analysis (CPA), says the popularity of work-from-home has weakened commercial property values. ‘Basically, every office building is less valuable than it used to be, which means it generates less tax revenue for the city,’ Horowitz said.”
The Globe and Mail in Canada. “Name, age: George, 34. Annual income: $62,000. Debt: $0. Savings: $30,000 in savings account, $300,000 in guaranteed investment certificates (GICs). What he does: Digital marketing. Where he lives: Hamilton. Top financial concern: ‘The housing market, unemployment and the chances of an impending [market] crash are weighing heavily on me.’ The tech bubble that caused his family so much loss has shaped George’s financial decision-making. He keeps the money he inherited and has earmarked for his future condo far away from the risky stock market. ‘It’s mostly about not buying stuff that you don’t need to replace goods that you already own,’ he said, pointing to his Bose speakers from the 1990s that still work well, even if they are larger than speakers one would buy today. ‘I spend money on dates, entertainment and basic necessities. I just don’t buy crap I don’t need. If you can’t be rich, at the very least don’t make yourself poor.’”
Mansion Global on the UK. “The priciest homes across central London now cost 20% less than during the market’s 2014 peak despite lower mortgage costs, according to a report Monday from Savills. While those mortgage rates have slipped, the more pressing concern for the city’s deep-pocketed buyers and sellers has been the threat of tax changes in the impending budget—the government’s annual outline of its spending and taxation plans—the real estate firm said. ‘While we would usually expect the top end of the market to be the first to react to improved market conditions, concerns over what the budget may hold have made buyers more cautious, especially in the most discretionary prime markets,’ Lucian Cook, head of residential research at Savills.”
From News.com.au. “The growth in Aussie home prices has cooled considerably over the last 12 months. It’s not good news for homeowners from coast to coast. Melbourne homeowners have had a grim start to spring with a sixth straight month of falling home values, with the city’s typical unit price now below Adelaide’s. Finch Financial chief executive Julian Finch said vendors were increasingly under pressure to sell quickly. ‘(Some) sellers are now desperate. There are a lot of stressed homeowners and property investors that are trying to offload their properties and they are prepared to sell it to the first person that offers them the best deal,’ Mr Finch said.”
The Business Standard in Bangladesh. “Bogura, a town known for its thriving real estate market, is now grappling with a severe downturn as the ongoing political instability and economic turmoil have significantly dampened people’s interest in investing in new properties. ‘Three years ago, we had to fight through the pandemic to keep our business afloat. However, the current situation has taken a different turn. Due to the ongoing political situation, the real estate business has collapsed,’ Md Sairul Islam, president of the Bogura Real Estate Association, told TBS recently.”
“Anwarul Karim Dulal, owner of Tropical Building Technologies Limited, said, ‘For the last five months, our business has almost come to a halt. To put it bluntly, we barely have enough money to buy food. We are going through a very difficult time, and it’s hard to share this with anyone.’ Highlighting the massive investments in the real estate sector, Dulal further said, ‘We are currently going through a period of uncertainty. We have taken out loans from banks and invested in the business, but we are struggling to make regular loan payments. To be honest, we are now on the verge of bankruptcy.’”
The Wall Street Journal. “China’s real-estate bust left behind tens of millions of empty housing units. Now that historic glut of unoccupied property is colliding with China’s shrinking population, leaving cities stuck with homes they might never be able to fill. The country could have as many as 90 million empty housing units, according to a tally of economists’ estimates. Assuming three people per household, that’s enough for the entire population of Brazil. ‘Fundamentally, there are not enough people to fill the homes,’ said Tianlei Huang, a research fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.”
“Many will become long-term burdens to cities and investors who get saddled with assets they can’t sell and which have lost their value, yet still must be maintained. Some will just wither away, economists say. In Hegang, a frigid city near China’s border with Russia, the population has declined to 940,000 from 1.09 million in 2010. A few years ago, when Hegang’s market was hot, property enthusiasts posted online messages touting homes they said were as cheap as cabbage. Prices now are even lower, according to an online property broker, and sales have stalled. Hegang’s inventory of unsold homes more than doubled from 2019 to 2022. A 650-square-feet apartment in the city center was recently listed for just under $9,300.”
“Developers marketed Qidong as an ideal bedroom community for Shanghai, a two-hour drive away. The city’s population peaked at 1.1 million in 2020 and has declined for three consecutive years. The number of local jobs has been declining since 2007. Xiang Dayu, a property agent there, remembers feverish demand during peak years. Some buyers openly discussed buying apartments for mistresses. Others were willing to pay without inspecting homes in person. But most people—many from Shanghai—bought homes as investments and left them empty, Xiang says. Now, most units sit unoccupied much of the year, with occupancy rising to only around 60% during peak summer months.”
“Many owners are trying to sell, with dozens of units listed on auction websites. In one video recently posted to Douyin, a landlord showed a property agent around a 1,030-square-foot unit, which the owner said he bought in 2016 for around $101,000 after a beach trip to Qidong with friends. ‘I thought the unit had a nice view, so I bought it there and then. I never lived here, not even once, and bought it completely for investment purposes,’ he said in the video. He is now trying to sell the place for around $63,100.”
“‘I don’t think the housing oversupply problem has a solution, really,’ said Huang, of the Peterson Institute. ‘Fundamentally, it’s the problem of declining demographics. Ghost cities will remain ghostly.’”