Four years ago, young voters turned out in historic numbers to help propel Joe Biden to the White House. Research from Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) at Tufts University found that half (50 percent) of young Americans between 18 and 29 voted in the 2020 presidential election. This turnout rate represented a notable 11-point increase from the 2016 election (39 percent). CIRCLE notes that the 2020 election represented one of the highest rates of youth electoral participation since 1971 when the voting age was lowered to 18.

The 2024 election is shaping up to be chaotic and nasty. The surveys regularly show that Presidential candidates are not inspiring or connecting well with younger Americans and are generally not well liked by Gen Z. Of course, there are now questions surrounding whether young voters can match, or exceed, their turnout in the upcoming election. Less than three months from Election Day, it is unclear whether young Americans will vote in relatively large numbers or sit this election out.

There are mixed and contradictory indicators concerning the intentions and views of younger Americans as the nation approaches November. A recent Siena College Poll of New Yorkers captured opinion after President Biden withdrew from the Presidential race underscores this confusion. On one hand, the poll found that 84 percent of 18–34-year-olds reported that they were certain or very likely to vote this November. For comparison, 94 percent of 35–54-year-olds and 96 percent of 55-plus respondents said that they plan to vote. Americans often over-report vote intention, but these numbers are high and suggest that younger voters may show up in equally high numbers this time around.

In the same Siena poll, young New Yorkers are more likely to agree with the statement, “The upcoming election is no more or no less important than every other election, America will carry on regardless of who wins.” The two candidates are unpopular and represent notably different values. Given the hyper-partisan nature of politics and the dire election narratives, it is reasonable to think young voters will realize the importance of the upcoming election. Amazingly, however, only 57 percent of 18–34-year-olds believe that this Presidential election is indeed the most important of their lifetime. While this represents a majority, it is appreciably lower than the three-quarters (73 percent) of 35–54-year-olds and 82 percent of 55-year-olds and older who see this November as being critical. There appears to be a disconnect here between election salience and intention to vote; why turn out in high numbers if the election is fairly typical?

Harvard’s Institute of Politics (IOP) presents more confounding survey data in their long-running youth polls. The poll regularly asks if younger Americans—here, 18–29-year-olds—believe that political involvement rarely has any tangible results. The spring of 2024 issue of the poll shows that only 30 percent of young Americans agree with this statement. This suggests that young voters are unenthused about the election. However, over the many years that IOP has been asking this question, the numbers have barely moved across various Presidential elections.

In 2016, when Donald Trump was up against Hillary Clinton, the IOP poll revealed that just 27 percent of young Americans believed that voting rarely had any tangible result, and turnout was much lower at 39 percent. In 2020, when large numbers of young Americans mobilized, engaged, and voted to challenge Trump for his failed re-election bid, just 29 percent of this group agreed in the spring of 2020 that political involvement rarely had any tangible results. However, younger Americans used their voices and took action in 2020, which produced the tangible result of Trump’s defeat.

Relatedly, when asked in the IOP poll whether or not their vote made a real difference, almost four in 10 young Americans (38 percent) believed in 2020 that their vote did not matter. That number is essentially the same (41 percent) as the nation heads into the upcoming election season.

The final ticket for the election has just been set. Trump and Harris have not debated, and the election still has to kick into high gear. Enthusiasm could still build, and ambiguities about candidate style and positions can come into sharper focus, which could excite and change younger Americans’ behaviors on Election Day. My own students are not enthusiastic whatsoever and continue to tell me that they want more, but that they feel ignored and uninspired by the candidates and the political system at large. They do not know if they’ll bother voting. The survey data, too, presents a messy and unclear picture now of how America’s younger votes will behave. Turnout intentions with younger Americans are not clear today, but this can certainly change, as a week is an eternity in politics.

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