New York City has long been a stronghold for the Democratic Party; just 10 percent of registered voters in the city itself are Republican, and Democratic primaries are more contested than the general elections. Viable Republican candidates to challenge Democrats in city races have been rare, and the GOP is not regularly seen as a counterweight to the Democratic machine. As the city approaches the 2024 election, the New York GOP should capitalize on New Yorkers’ contempt for Democratic politics and their regressive policies.
In conversations with dozens of New Yorkers who have been longtime Democratic voters, they have shared their unending disgust with how the city is failing on many dimensions. They complain about ultra-progressive politics impacting schools, city agencies, and businesses. They are appalled that jobs are being rewarded based on ideas of diversity, equity, and restorative justice rather than on one’s grit, hard work, and excellence. Inflation, too, is out of control for most, and costs for utilities and necessities continue to rise.
From omnipresent shoplifting and retail closures to assaults on the street and turnstile jumping, New Yorkers are furious about the rampant crime throughout the city. The District Attorney has created this ecosystem that limits the police’s authority to stamp out petty crimes. New Yorkers disapprove of the constant, disruptive protests that are flaring up around the city, whether on campuses or on major bridges and in transit hubs, again, knowing that the law is being ignored. Consequences are practically non-existent for the aggressors.
New Yorkers are losing patience with the city’s status as a “sanctuary city.” The constant stream of illegal immigrants drains the city of its financial and housing resources, increasing its crime rate, crowding out shelters and schools, and creating problems throughout the boroughs daily. They believe that the desire to assist has gone too far and see no leadership in sight; New Yorkers become irate when asked about Vice President Kamala Harris and her surrogate’s proposals offering pathways to citizenship.
Fox News ran a headline stating that “Democrats have run New York City into the ground,” and New Yorkers know it. They all tell me the same thing: They dislike some of the ideas of the Republican Party and have concerns about Donald Trump, but they no longer believe that the Democratic Party is there to protect their interests and the city’s. They intend to vote for Trump because they like his position on immigration, safety, security, and law and order, and they cannot support someone like Harris. When I asked several union members about their intentions and how they respond to the various unions that support Democratic candidates and causes, they all had the same response: We hear the leaders and ignore them, we are going to support Trump and Republicans come November even with our concerns and misgivings.
Statewide polling regularly confirms this sentiment. While the poll is a statewide and not a city poll, the data shows that more than half of registered voters in New York say the state is heading in the “wrong direction.” Roughly 83 percent of registered voters said they believed the influx of migrants was a “serious” issue for the state with 57 percent deeming this crisis “very serious” and another 26 percent believing that the city is facing a “somewhat serious” problem. Breaking this down by partisanship, 77 percent of Democrats stated that the problem was “serious,” while 95 percent of Republicans who participated agreed that the migrant problem is a significant issue. Large majorities of both Republicans and Democrats agree on the migrant crisis in New York City. Siena College pollster Steve Greenberg noted that rarely do polls show such unified agreement over any issue but here, “Democrats, Republicans, independents, men, women, upstaters, downstaters, Blacks, whites, Latinos, Catholics, Jews, and Protestants all agree—that the migrant influx is a serious problem.”
This is where the Republican Party has an opening, and the Democrats should be worried. Residents of the Empire State are struggling to cover their expenses, raise families, and live their lives safely, while their Democratic leaders are undermining them by allowing inflation, rampant crime, social and economic disruption, and a migrant crisis to make life harder. New Yorkers want a change and the GOP has a strong set of values and ideas that speak directly into the hearts and minds of New Yorkers and their concerns. Former Republican Congressman Lee Zeldin came within a few points of knocking out incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul in 2022, showing that the GOP and its platform absolutely resonated with New Yorkers. There is an opportunity now for the GOP to grow and make inroads with many New Yorkers who were previously unpersuadable and politically closed to Republicans. The question is: Can the New York GOP organize and rise to the occasion?
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