The impact of America’s shale boom on our energy dependence and economic growth has been extensively discussed. Less so for changes that have been forced and may soon be forced on what are now less-competitive oil producers—a situation the US suffered from for decades. American oil will continue to make sanctions easier to adopt. It could also make for another Venezuela or two—tottering countries pushed over the edge by revenue loss.

American petroleum production began surging in 2009, due to shale and recovery from the financial crisis. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently updated world output statistics. From 2009–2023, world output rose less than 19 percent, nearing 102 million barrels per day. American supply soared 140 percent, accounted for almost four-fifths of the global increase. The increment was more than five times that of second-place Canada.

One could even give the US some credit for the second-largest percentage gain in oil production, which belonged to Iraq. On the other side, however, are countries seeing production drops because the net American draw on the world market contracted. The top producers in 2009 can be sorted into three groups trailing the US: outpacing the world average, still growing but falling behind, and outright declining.

The outpacing group starts with Iraq and includes (in order of gains) Canada, Brazil, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Qatar, and China. Slow growers are headed by Kuwait, followed by heavyweights Saudi Arabia and Russia. Lower petroleum production is found in half the original 20, starting with a mild drop in Iran. Increasingly steep declines are seen in Norway, Algeria, Mexico, Nigeria, Libya, Angola, Azerbaijan, the UK, and Venezuela.

Iranian and possibly Russian production were depressed by sanctions, while Libya is a case of implosion. Venezuela also imploded, but the country’s inability to adjust to the changing global oil market almost surely contributed to its internal turmoil. British oil may have simply run low, adding to economic struggles. Others, like Nigeria, were known to be lower-margin producers where grand plans were upended by rising US supply.

Different Top Tens

2009

2023

America’s gains have increased market concentration. In 2009, the top five producers had a combined 44 percent market share. Last year, this eclipsed 54 percent, despite Saudi and Russian shares slipping. It’s become easier to sanction Iran and even Russia. And the US has been able to shrug off declines in Mexico and Venezuela that would have caused price spikes at best and pressure for some sort of intervention at worst.

Forecasting 2023 in 2006 turns out to be have been a fool’s errand. Nonetheless, EIA is willing to say American output will rise further in the short term, and stay high through the 2030’s. The impact from this obviously depends on the world demand trend. If oil demand also rises, contra the goals of the climate change movement, even robust US output would mean limited new changes.

If demand is flat or falling, though, either energy sanctions are likely to spread or more producers will fade away. This process may not prove durable, but it’s already started. American exports have set repeated monthly records since Russia sanctions were imposed, with only modest strain on the global market. Venezuela is the next test. If that country also can be replaced, the sanctions door will be wide open.

When Ukraine is resolved or if Venezuela eventually recovers, fresh winnowing will ensure. Countries ranging from Algeria to Norway would be at risk. Nigerian output dropped 31 percent from 2009 to 2023 and has more room to fall, a scary prospect with a population over 220 million and soaring. The US is a far more reliable supplier than Nigeria, Mexico or others, which is a potent foreign policy tool. But Venezuela won’t be the last oil failure.

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