United States Investment in Security and Prosperity Related to Ukraine

This piece, and the figures referred to within it, are associated with AEI’s Ukraine Assistance Tool, which was updated as of May 22, 2024.

Congress approved and the President signed supplemental spending measures in late April to support US interests in the Middle East, Europe, and the Pacific. Part of the money appropriated—$61 billion—is for US efforts related to Ukraine in the war against Russia’s aggression. As funds flow under this 5th supplemental enacted since March 2022, it is useful to update the picture of what the money is for, where it is going, and why it is good for America.

Congress has now appropriated a total of $175.1 billion in assistance for Ukraine and countries impacted by the war (Figure 1), over $111.7 billion of which is managed through the Department of Defense (DOD) (Figure 2). 

The largest category of funding is for DOD accounts ($39.6 billion), much of which is directed toward supporting US personnel and operations in Europe, including special pay, flying hours, maintenance, and intelligence analysis. Since the start of the war, at least 100,000 US service members have either been stationed or deployed to Europe. Some are there to teach combined arms or to provide Special Forces training for Ukrainian soldiers, so they are prepared to use the weapons they are assigned. Other US service members are there to deter further Russian aggression into Europe and to engage with European partners. Supplemental appropriations are crucial to support the incremental costs of these deployments so funds from other accounts continue to support the readiness of the overall force as planned.

The second largest category of funding ($39.3 billion) goes toward backfilling weapons provided to Ukraine from US stocks (Figure 3). The use of Presidential Drawdown Authority has allowed the US to quickly send military equipment from existing stocks to Ukraine. For example, the US has sent 39 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), more than 3 million 155mm artillery shells, 200 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles, and many other weapons and munitions that are crucial to the daily battle in Ukraine. 

But sending the weapons to Ukraine from US inventory is only the first part of the story. The supplemental funds to backfill that inventory helps to modernize US forces with newer replacement equipment and to update and expand our own munitions production capacity. For example, the US sends PAC-2 and PAC-3 missiles to be used in the Patriot air and missile defense system in Ukraine and then replaces them with the PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) which increases the range of air defense protection assets in the US arsenal.

Other top categories include money for Economic Support ($35.3 billion) managed through the US Department of State to directly help Ukraine’s economic health and continuity of basic services such as power, health, and education; and the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative ($32.7 billion) to purchase new weapons and equipment from the US industrial base for Ukraine’s military capability to defend itself. The Humanitarian and Non-Security Assistance category also makes up a generous portion of funding ($18.6 billion) going toward those suffering most in this war. In fact, simply categorizing funds between military power versus humanitarian and non-security assistance (Figure 5) shows a 68 percent versus 32 percent split.

As the US buys equipment for Ukraine and refills its own stocks, American companies and the economy benefit as well. In all, $120.8 billion of the total $175.1 billion appropriated for Ukraine has been spent either in the United States or on US forces (Figure 6). This spending, on top of regular procurement appropriations passed each year, will help to alleviate the vulnerabilities and inadequacies in the defense industrial base identified in the National Defense Industrial Strategy.

Russia’s aggression will not stop with Ukraine. If Russia takes Ukraine, it will have a new stronghold on NATO’s front lines. The amount of money we are spending now to help Ukraine would be only a fraction of what it could cost to expand the current US posture, presence, and capability in Europe to defend NATO. In fact, America’s National Defense Strategy, which is already insufficient to confront the world as it is today, would quickly become irrelevant. We would need a new strategy and the force structure necessary to confront at least two major conflicts simultaneously. On the other hand, a strong and victorious Ukraine would alter the dynamic in our favor in Europe and deter further aggression not just from Russia but by its allies as well.   

In summary, while $175.1 billion is no small sum, it has clear benefits for the United States, our domestic manufacturing base, and modernization of the US military. And it would be eclipsed by what it would cost us if Ukraine loses.

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