Since the onset of the war in Ukraine, China has not been alone in disregarding the West and continuing business with Russia as usual. India too provides a lifeline to Moscow.
The highest profile example of this has been in the oil trade. S&P Global Commodity Insights notes India imported seven times more oil from Russia in 2022 compared to 2021. Besides oil, India’s imports of Russian fertilizer increased by 371 percent in the six-month period beginning April 1, 2022. While its share is decreasing, Russia remains India’s top arms supplier, accounting for 45 percent of India’s arms imports from 2018 to 2022. Less discussed, however, are India’s transgressions in the aviation sphere which further mitigate the punishing effect of sanctions on Russia and are yet another reminder of why the US should be cautious of New Delhi’s reliability as a partner even as Washington seeks to move the relationship forward.
Aviation sanctions were implemented shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. President Joe Biden announced the closure of US airspace to Russian aircraft in his 2022 State of the Union speech. This followed similar action taken by Canada and the EU. The US also enacted export controls prohibiting the servicing and refueling of aircraft found to be in violation of Export Administration Regulations concerning Russia. The Commerce Department notes violators risk facing penalties such as “substantial jail time, fines, loss of export privileges, or other restrictions.”
These sanctions hold the potential of being an effective tool against Russia given that the majority of Russian airlines’ fleets are comprised of aircraft from aerospace titans Boeing and Airbus. If strictly enforced, they would further isolate Russia from the rest of the world and take away financial gain from Russia’s airlines. In conjunction with other sanctions, they promised a powerful punishment for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
India, however, is undermining the effectiveness of these tools.
In March, India and Russia agreed “in principle” to allow Russian airlines to increase their weekly services to India from 52 flights a week to 64. Following this announcement, media reports noted that Russian flag carrier Aeroflot would increase the frequency on their Moscow-Delhi route.
It appears India has already violated US prohibitions on servicing and refueling sanctioned aircraft. A non-exhaustive list published by the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) in August 2022 listed 183 aircraft subject to the restrictions on servicing and refueling. Data from FlightRadar24 show that on March 28, 2023 Aeroflot flight SU233 between Delhi and Moscow was operated by a Boeing 777-300ER whose tail number (RA-73131) is included on this list. Likewise, on March 26, 2023 Aeroflot flight SU237 between Goa and Moscow was also operated by a sanctioned Boeing 777. For these flights to have been operated, some servicing would have been required in India. At a minimum, ground service operators in India would have had to refuel these aircraft for their return flights to Moscow. Such actions violate US restrictions, and their frequency will likely rise if Russian airlines are permitted to increase their operations to India.
To be fair, India is not the only country that appears to be in violation of these prohibitions. Sanctioned aircraft have also flown to other destinations such as Phuket in Thailand. While it is unclear who the biggest transgressor is, the US has pressured others like Turkey to abide by its regulations. This effort appears to have been successful, with Turkey subsequently banning service for any US-made Russian and Belarusian aircraft.
Whether India will face similar pressure remains to be seen, but a pattern is emerging where India is able to undercut American interests concerning Russia and avoid facing punitive action. In 2018 India purchased the S-400 missile defense system from Russia and has so far avoided the same fate as NATO ally Turkey which was sanctioned for the same action. March was another month where India was the top buyer of Russian oil. When asked in February about possible sanctions on India for its purchases of Russian oil, the Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs flatly stated, “we are not looking to sanction India, and our partnership with India is one of our most consequential relationships.”
Strategic concerns aside, India’s growing aviation market promises lucrative opportunities for companies like Boeing that the Biden administration may not want to risk. Earlier this year Air India placed the largest aircraft order in aviation history, ordering 470 aircraft from Airbus and Boeing. Thus, the prospects that India will face consequences for undermining US aviation sanctions appear low.
Successful partnerships often require both parties to give and take. With the US-India partnership, New Delhi’s disregard for US aviation sanctions in light of its past behavior towards Russia is yet another indicator that India is willing to take much but give little.
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