Former President Trump still gets a lot of attention. From a policy standpoint, this seems strange, because he didn’t do much the four years he was in charge. One thing he was supposed to do was change our trade with China, first with tariffs then his “phase 1” trade deal. But President Trump’s China trade policy was a loser. Not by some free trader’s standards, but by the standards of candidate Trump in 2015-6.

As a candidate, Trump talked about economic relations with China as the “greatest theft in the history of the world.” The biggest part of that was the trade deficit, which Trump called a huge cost to the US. An important cause of the deficit was Beijing manipulating its currency. The most specific solution Trump proposed was tariffs, mentioning a 45 percent rate but also that it might not be necessary because China would bargain.

US trade with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) changed during 2020 mostly because COVID tanked our economy. After signing phase 1 in January that year, President Trump did nothing on China trade other than hope the PRC didn’t rip him off (spoiler: they did). His “tough” trade policies were rolled out 2017-2019.

While not 45-percent across the board, President Trump did start the process for applying sweeping new tariffs in 2017 and applied them in 2018 and 2019. Just as he predicted, tariffs brought the PRC to the negotiating table. Unfortunately, China lied at the table, promising to import much more while knowing its economy could be crushed by the pandemic.

It was a stretch for Trump to believe China in January 2020, it was amazingly foolish to still believe in April. Yet Trump never renounced the deal (much less punish the PRC). When he announced his candidacy in 2015, Trump talked about how the US never beat China in a trade deal while he beat China “all the time.” He was right that previous Presidents got played by Beijing, but no one got played as bad as he did in 2020.

Trump did eventually label the PRC a currency manipulator. It took until August 2019 and he removed the tag less than six months later. From the start of his term until phase 1 / COVID, the yuan got a bit weaker against the dollar. If candidate Trump was right about China manipulating its currency, then President Trump didn’t change that (COVID did, temporarily).

At the heart of candidate Trump’s China speeches was the huge US trade deficit with the PRC. In goods only, it averaged $353 billion from 2014-6 under Obama. From 2017-2019 under Trump, it averaged $378 billion. If services are included, the averages are $321 billion for Obama and $338 billion for Trump. If trade with China cost America $1 trillion in the three years before Trump, it cost another $1 trillion in Trump’s first three years.

Nothing has changed under Biden, either. Trump’s tariffs are still in place and the 2022 goods trade deficit with China was $383 billion, the second-largest after only Trump’s 2018 deficit. Trump frequently talks up the money brought in by tariffs, triggering a debate over who’s paying that money – China or us. The bottom line is clear, though: Trump’s federal budget deficit grew in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Tariffs didn’t help there, either.

2016 candidate Trump would have mocked President Trump’s China trade record. Tariffs getting nothing done, the same huge trade deficit, no change on currency manipulation, and being played in trade talks. Fail. Does 2023 candidate Trump have anything better to offer?

The most concrete trade pledge is to revoke China’s most favored nation status. 2023 candidate Trump should ask 2020 President Trump why he didn’t do that when China inflicted a pandemic on the US (and broke its promises to him). After President Trump’s China trade failures, 2023 candidate Trump can only point the finger at himself.

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