In Iowa, support for former President Donald Trump continues to decline among Republicans. As the shadow primary showdown between Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis heats up, Iowans approval of the 45th president – though still high – has slipped since 2021. A recent Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll found that Trump is viewed favorably by 80 percent of Iowa Republicans, down from 83 percent in October 2022 and 91 percent in September 2021. Meanwhile, his unfavorable ratings have jumped from 7 percent in 2021 to 18 percent this spring. Such shifts may seem trivial, but indicate a real opening for DeSantis – or another non-Trump candidate – in the all-important Iowa caucus.
In 2016, the last time Republicans held a competitive Iowa caucus, Trump narrowly lost to Texas Senator Ted Cruz, even though he comfortably led in national polls. At the time, Trump’s early defeat was chalked up to lagging state-level organization and the limited appeal of his brash populism in an Evangelical-heavy state.
On March 13, Trump visited Iowa for the first time since his November campaign launch. His return to the Hawkeye State was marked by a distinctly different campaign style from his 2016 run. Foregoing his traditional mega-rallies, Trump instead worked the rope line in a series of retail campaign stops prior to a speech in Davenport. His campaign’s early emphasis on organization and staffing indicate the campaign recognizes the high stakes of Iowa. Though much could – and likely will – change over the next ten months, should Trump lose the caucus, his presumed frontrunner status would deteriorate and defections could mount quickly.
DeSantis, who recently embarked on his own tour of Iowa, opens with 75 percent of Iowa Republicans holding a favorable opinion and just 6 percent holding an unfavorable opinion, undoubtedly a strong place for a candidate who has yet to announce an official campaign. DeSantis’s net +69 favorability is significantly higher than former Vice President Mike Pence (+40) and former Governor Nikki Haley (+45). Unlike Trump and Pence, however, DeSantis remains unknown to 20 percent of Iowa Republicans. How these voters respond to DeSantis will be vital to track as his name ID rises in the coming months. If, as most anticipate, DeSantis waits until May or June to launch a campaign, he risks ceding a first impression to Trump — who has already launched a series of attacks on the governor.
A strong focus on education and culture issues from Iowa’s state legislature and Governor Kim Reynolds is another positive sign for DeSantis. Since her reelection in November, Reynolds has advocated for changes to how race and sexuality are taught in public schools – the very same issues DeSantis relentlessly champions in Florida. Not wanting to cede ground to DeSantis, Trump spent much of his Iowa swing touting his own socially conservative bona fides on education and trans issues. But if DeSantis can keep the debate centered on his preferred issue set, he should reap the benefit as his expected announcement inches closer.
Iowa’s demographics may present a third challenge for Trump’s Iowa campaign. Despite his 2020 loss, Trump significantly improved the GOP’s performance with nonwhite voters. In places like South Texas, New York City, and Miami-Dade, not only did thousands of nonwhite Clinton voters switch parties, but many minorities who had not voted in 2016 also showed up for Trump in 2020. Early 2024 polling confirms Trump’s strength with nonwhite Republicans nationally. Harry Enten noted this comparative advantage in a recent CNN column: in a pair of recent high-quality polls, Trump led 55 percent to 26 percent over DeSantis with nonwhite Republicans nationally.
But this advantage carries no weight in Iowa, which at 90.1 percent non-Hispanic white, is one of the whitest states in the nation. Voters of color – at least in the Republican caucus – are electorally insignificant. And among white Republicans, Trump and DeSantis are neck and neck. In the national surveys gathered by Enten, Trump takes 38 percent and DeSantis 37 percent. A February Monmouth poll lends weight to the hypothesis: Trump is up nationally with nonwhite Republicans, but trails DeSantis among white Republicans. Not every early 2024 poll confirms this relationship, but more often than not, Trump proves a stronger candidate than DeSantis with nonwhite Republicans. This potential minority strength could provide a vital boost in delegate-rich Super Tuesday states like California and Texas, but will be of little help in Iowa.
National polling confirms that, for now, Donald Trump remains the front-runner for the Republican nomination. But, just as in 2016, Iowa presents a hurdle for the former president. State-level polling, the salient issue set, and demographic data all suggest that a challenger could sneak past Trump and win the first-in-the-nation caucus. To quote famed Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer, “There’s nothing locked in about Iowa for Donald Trump.”
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